Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons^™

Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney

Theses and Dissertations

Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The study recommends coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determines if different CV ranges should be used based on platform type, and determines if CV decreases over the course of the program's acquisition lifecycle. The analysis found that the Air Force should enhance the CV review process to ensure …