Business Commons^™

Monetary Policy Impact On Stock Returns For Selected South Asian Countries, Neluka Devpura, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Navin Perera

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this paper, we examine the monetary policy impact on the stock market returns and volatility for four major South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). We test our hypothesis that monetary policy influences both the first and second order of stock returns by using monthly data. The short-term interest rate and the Treasury bill rate are employed as proxies for monetary policy. Controlling for industrial production, inflation, exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar), US interest rate, and money supply, our findings indicate that there exists a statistically significant impact of short-term interest rates on stock returns only …

Do U.S. And International Stock Returns Depend On The Presidential Election Cycle Year?, Paul Peragine

Financial Analyst

This paper aims to determine if U.S. and international stock returns are dependent on the U.S. four-year Presidential election cycle (PEC). Additionally, it expands on past literature by confirming past results and extending them to the present. It implements an economic integration variable, which is a measure of how correlated a country is economically to the U.S. The markets that are highly integrated with the U.S. follow a very similar pattern to that of the U.S. PEC, while weakly integrated countries are less likely to follow the U.S. return cycle. A Chow test confirms that economic integration status influences a …

Redefining The Boundaries Of Firms: Insights From The Corporate Social Responsibility Of The Digital Platform-Based Firms And Stock Returns, Moo Kung Kim

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

By using a novel dataset, platform firms (those that operate on apps and the internet as their main vector of operations), this study explores the boundaries of the firm through the lens of corporate social responsibility. By examining the CSR scandals of platform-based firms, the paper aims to answer: ‘How do digital platform firms affect the society and capital market and understand the welfare of stakeholders?’. To disentangle the debates in the literature, the study articulates the new framework of the boundaries and scope of firms by proposing broader stakeholders of firms.

This research attempts to elucidate the boundaries of …

Did David Win A Battle Or The War Against Goliath? Dynamic Return And Volatility Connectedness Between The Gamestop Stock And The High Short Interest Indices, David Y. Aharon, Renatas Kizys, Zaghum Umar, Adam Zaremba

All Works

Can a short-squeeze incident trigger financial contagion over heavily shorted companies? The recent GameStop frenzy provides a unique natural experiment to explore this question. This study examines the static and dynamic return and volatility connectedness among the GameStop stock, the novel market-wide and sectoral short-interest indices, and the U.S. stock market. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find that the GameStop stock is not a net transmitter but a net recipient of return and volatility spillovers from other companies shorted in the market. This result agrees with the view that short-interest indices provide price discovery for shorted stocks. Therefore, although David …

Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …

Two Essays On How Do Investors Perceive The Optimal Capital Structure And An Essay On Mutual Fund Volatility Decomposition And Manager Skill, Nima Vafai

Finance and Real Estate Dissertations

This dissertation explores the rational investment hypothesis proposed by classical theories at the stock and portfolio (mutual fund) level. My first two essays focus on the risk associated with the composition of debt and equity at the firm level. The third essay studies the total risk at the portfolio level in the mutual fund setting. In the first essay, we examine the association between deviations from the optimal capital structure and firm-level stock returns by comparing different proxies for optimal capital structure from the literature and constructing improved industry-specific optimal capital structure measures. After comparing the performance of each measure, …

Lessons For Euro Markets From The First Wave Of Covid-19, Costas Siriopoulos, Argyro Svingou, Jagadish Dandu

All Works

Although the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe in the early days of 2020, European stock markets had signaled fluctuations in the days before. This paper assesses the observed volatility on European stock exchanges and searches for its sources during the first four months of 2020. To investigate the issue, a panel VAR model is adopted, and the generalized impulse response function and the variance decomposition methods are used. The estimations show that about 34% of the volatility in European stock markets is due to the Chinese stock market, while 7% is due to international uncertainty, as measured by VIX. The impact …

Option Implied Volatility's Predictability On Monthly Stock Returns, Hung T. Dao

Senior Independent Study Theses

Since the trading of options is based on underlying stocks, it is reasonable to assume that information from the options market can be used to explain the returns in the stock market. Our independent study investigates the relationship between options implied volatility and stock returns. Previous studies have found significant results in using implied volatility in predicting stock returns. This paper provides a discussion of such studies, the theoretical framework for the research topic, and the Black-Scholes model, which is famous for its application in implied volatility calculation. Monthly returns of 20 large US firms are regressed against implied volatility …

Do Short Sellers Use Textual Information? Evidence From Annual Reports, Hung Wan Kot, Frank Weikai Li, Ming Liu, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine short-sellers’ use of textual information in annual reports for shorting activities. We find that more uncertainty and negative words in annual reports are associated with greater abnormal shorting volume. Short selling motivated by textual information negatively predicts stock price reaction around the filing date of 10-K reports. We further provide some evidence that textual information used by short-sellers are related to revisions of analysts’ earnings forecasts, changes in firm fundamentals, and increasing crash risk subsequently. Our results suggest that textual information in annual reports forms an important part of short-sellers’ information advantage.

Consumer Sentiment And Indonesia’S Stock Returns, Deepa Bannigidadmath

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 2020. All Rights Reserved. This paper examines whether consumer sentiment predicts the excess returns of the aggregate market and nine industries from the Indonesia equity market. We discover evidence of predictability for three industries; however, the magnitude of predictability are heterogeneous. Some sectors are predictable during expansions, whereas others are only predictable during recessions. There is no evidence of the reversal of the impact of consumer sentiment on stock returns. We conduct several robustness tests that include (i) estimating a predictive regression model with a feasible quasi-generalized least squares–based estimator and (ii) accounting for …

Stock Returns Versus Bond Returns: Actual Historical Data 1926-2008, Robert J. Angell, Charles W. Cole

Southern Business Review

Robert J. Angell, D.B.A., is professor of finance, Department of Economics & Finance, North Carolina Agricultural and Technology State University, Greensboro, NC 27411.

Charles W. Cole, Ph.D., is assistant professor of finance, Department of Economics & Finance, North Carolina Agricultural and Technology State University, Greensboro, NC

Firm Age And Crude Oil Returns: Stock Price Sensitivity Of Oil-Producing And Consuming Companies, Hirofumi Nishi Ph.D.

Economics, Finance & Accounting Faculty Publications

This study aims to identify firm characteristics that affect the cross-firm variation in oil–stock interactions. A panel data analysis with a sample of U.S. and Canadian firms reveals that the stock price sensitivity to crude oil price returns is negatively and significantly associated with firm age. Contrary to a common belief, firm size or stock liquidity does not seem to influence heterogeneity in oil–stock relationships. My finding is consistent across oil-producing and consuming companies while the effect of firm age is not observed among financial institutions engaged in commodity trading. An additional test using the panel Granger causality approach shows …

The Profitability Of Momentum Strategies : A Study Of Indonesian Stock Exchange, Rakhmat Luthfiansyah Mosii, Sigit Sulistiyo Wibowo

Indonesian Capital Market Review

We investigate the profitability of style and price momentum strategy in the Indonesian stock market from the year 2000 to 2015. We find the style momentum strategy yields significant positive returns while the price momentum strategy tends to produce negative returns. This result confirms the findings of Lewellen (2002) that style momentum returns are generally stronger than the conventional momentum. The average monthly returns of the double-sorted size-B/M style momentum are ranging from 1.98% to 2.64% and persistent after controlling for market factor using JSX index. Our findings suggest investors should utilize publicly available information such as size and book-to-market …

Stock Returns And Investor Sentiment: Textual Analysis And Social Media, Zachary Mcgurk, Adam Nowak, Joshua C. Hall

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

The behavioral finance literature has found that investor sentiment has predictive ability for equity returns. This differs from standard finance theory, which provides no role for investor sentiment. We examine the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns by employing textual analysis on social media posts. We find that our investor sentiment measure has a positive and significant effect on abnormal stock returns. These findings are consistent across a number of different models and specifications, providing further evidence against non-behavioral theories.

The Market Impact Of The Appointment Of Female Directors In Listed Companies In New Zealand, Kuan Yong David Ding, Echo Su Chen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines investor reaction to the appointment of female directors in New Zealand-listed companies. Using the event study method, we ϐind that female directors tend to be appointed as independent directors rather than in a Chief Executive Ofϐicer (CEO) role. The results reveal that female board appointments are generally negatively associated with stock performance. This study captures both the gender diversity arising in New Zealand companies and the performance of stock price resulting from the reaction of investors to the different positions of female directors. The evidence of a decrease in market performance is shown by the negative cumulative …

Is Earnings Yield A Security Return Model Anomaly?, Rebecca Abraham, Charlie W. Harrington

HCBE Faculty Articles

This paper supplements the traditional security return model, by adding earnings yield to the risk-free rate, market risk, size, and book-to-market equity as predictors of security returns. Earnings yield is the ratio of net income to market price, so that it represents the segment of market price that depends upon operating performance of the firm, rather than market perception. This paper establishes a theoretical framework for the earnings yield construct, describing it as a predictor of return on assets, return on equity, economic value added, and the equity multiplier. Earnings yield, therefore, predicts the ability to purchase productive assets, achieve …

Insider Trading And The Stock Act Amendment, Josh Wilson

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

On April 2, 2012, Congress passed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act. The purpose of this legislation was to enhance transparency among the financial investments of Congress members, congressional staffers, and other government employees. One year later, an amendment was passed which no longer required staffers or government employees to publish their holdings online citing “national security”. Treating this event as a natural experiment, I examine whether insider trading occurred in the days leading up to and through the signing of the law by President Obama. In general, I find that portfolios of the 50 most commonly held …

Sentiment And Stock Returns: Anticipating A Major Sporting Event, Brian C. Payne, Jiri Tresl, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This study documents the effect of the Super Bowl on the stock returns of firms that are geographically associated with the competing teams. We find significant upward return drift in the 9 trading days leading up to the Super Bowl, a pattern consistent with investors trading in anticipation of the game itself. The ‘‘anticipatory behavior’’ among investors leads to widespread pregame returns, which is not documented in prior studies. These pre-event abnormal returns are positive and statistically and economically significant for all firms, and the size of pre-event returns varies according to each team’s favored status. In addition, firms associated …

A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in states classified as rising (positive) (𝑅𝑘), falling (negative) state (𝑅𝑚) or stable (zero) state (𝑅𝑙). Related goodness-of-fit tests show that the Markov model fits the data adequately with an error rate of approximately 0.1. The maximum expected lengths of successively being in either positive or negative regime is 4 days, while that of …

Aggregate Earnings Surprises, Monetary Policy, And Stock Returns, Lindsey A. Gallao, Rebecca N. Hann, Congcong Li

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed׳s policy actions. Additionally, the negative aggregate earnings-returns association is muted when we control for policy surprises. This result is more pronounced in periods with negative policy surprises, which tend to trigger a more significant market reaction. Taken together, these results suggest that aggregate earnings convey policy news and the market reacts negatively to policy surprises, which …

Two Essays On Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu

Finance Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation provides some new evidence that the information contained in short selling is informative about future returns, confirming the role of short sellers in the price discovery process.

The first essay examines the cross-sectional relation between the change in short interest and expected stock returns. NYSE/AMEX stocks with large decreases (increases) in short interest over past medium-term horizon experience significant and positive (negative) abnormal returns. Moreover, the positive abnormal returns are larger in absolute value and are more persistent than negative abnormal returns. The return spread between bottom and top deciles is economically and statistically significant and persistent. The …

Does Brand Licensing Increase A Licensor's Shareholder Value?, Adina B. Robinson, Kapil R. Tuli, Ajay K. Kohli

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines 171 brand licensing announcements and subsequent changes in the licensor firms' shareholder values using the event study method. We find that although brand licensing announcements lead to positive abnormal returns on average, nearly 44% of the announcements in our sample are followed by negative abnormal returns. We argue that investors react more favorably to a brand licensing announcement when they believe (i) the brand has greater ability to stimulate licensee product sales (and thus generate higher royalties for the licensor) and (ii) the licensor firm has greater ability to limit licensee opportunism (and thus limit brand dilution …

Retail Investor Preferences And The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle, Julia Henker, Thomas Henker, Deborah Tan

Thomas Henker

We explain the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns observed by previous researchers. We argue that, based on the observation described in prospect theory, retail investors prefer stocks with a high level of idiosyncratic volatility and are consequently willing to overpay for those stocks. In support of our argument, we find that the negative idiosyncratic-volatility return relation is present in the Australian market, and that this relation is affected by the magnitude of retail trading. The relation is particularly strong when returns and realized volatility are measured at a daily frequency.

Financial Crisis And Dynamic The Dependency Between Six International Currencies Volatility With Sectors Volatility: Evidence From Six Australian Sectors, Ramzi Tarazi, Mohammad Zahidul Hasan

Business Conference Papers

This paper investigates the influence of volatility of foreign exchange rate of the U.S., the U.K., Netherlands, Japan, China and Singapore to the volatility of the six Australian sectors within the investigated period controlling for the time periods global financial crisis 2007-2008.The volatility in this study was estimated using GARCH(1,1) models. Daily data is collected for a period of 2002 to 2014. The dataset is divided into three sub periods: before GFC (July 2002 to July 2007), during GFC (July 2007 to July 2009) and after GFC (July 2009 to July 2014). The estimated results find strong relationship between exchange …

Corporate Social Performance, Analyst Stock Recommendations, And Firm Future Returns, Xueming Luo, Heli Wang, Sascha Raithel, Qinqin Zheng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study posits that security analysts heed corporate social performance information and factor it into their recommendations to general investors. In particular, as corporate social performance is often uncertain and ambiguous to general investors, analysts may serve as the informational pathway connecting corporate social performance to firm stock returns. Thus, we argue that analyst recommendations mediate the relationship between corporate social performance and firm stock returns. On the basis of not only a qualitative study with literature searches and interviews of stock analysts but also a quantitative study with two longitudinal samples of large firms, we find support for these …

Interest Rate Sensitivity And Stock Returns, Mohsin R. Khan, Zahid Mahmood

Business Review

This paper investigates the sensitivity of interest rate to stock return of financial institutions traded at Karachi Stock Exchange. Two Index Model of Stone and Bernell(1974) have been used to test the proposition of the present study. Three different portfolios of financial institutions have been examined against sensitivity of actual and unanticipated interest rates. Repo rate/Policy rate instead of t-bill rate is used for the proxy of interest rate. The data is collected from twenty nine financial institutions covering the time period from 2004 to 2011. Unit root test, co integration and error correction mechanism have been checked before proceeding …

Cost Efficiency Estimations And The Equity Returns For The Us Public Solar Energy Firms In 1990–2008, Chris Kuo

Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper provides a direct estimate of the cost efficiencies of firms in the US solar energy industry. It suggests that the cost efficiency in the industry is associated with the risk-bearing behaviour of firms. Less efficient firms maintain low price-cost margins and high labour–capital ratios in order to compete with their efficient peers. The study then establishes the linkage between cost efficiency and stock returns. It shows that the change in cost efficiency, rather than cost efficiency itself, possesses a stronger explanatory power for stock returns. A buy-and-hold strategy for stock portfolios of different efficiency levels is then analysed. …

The Impact Of Financial And Trade Openness On Economic Growth And Stock Returns: The Case Of Africa, Tibebe Abebe Assefa

Theses and Dissertations - UTB/UTPA

The debate on whether financial development and stock market help growth is ongoing. In the context of Africa where there exists a strong need and potential for growth, it is important to revisit the topic in order to address the problem of economic underdevelopment. In this dissertation, we focus on seventeen African countries with two main objectives: First, to investigate the relationship between financial and trade openness, and economic growth. Second, we investigate the association of African real stock index returns with financial and trade openness. For all analysis, we use Fixed Effect Models (FEM) and System Generalized Method of …

The Effect Of Kurtosis On The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Abdullah Al Masud

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this study, I show an effect of the statistical fourth moment on stock returns. In the mean-variance framework, rational investors follow two strategies: optimize the mean{variance of return and diversify the portfolio. Regarding the first approach, investors intend to generate the maximum level of return while facing a constant level of risk (or, the standard deviation) of return. It is possible that firm specific risk can be concentrated in the portfolio. However, diversification of the assets can eliminate that (idiosyncratic) risk from the portfolio. After a long period of time, in a diversified portfolio the shape of the return …

Determinants Of Dow Jones Returns, Cory Sloan

Honors Projects

As of 2010, there was $14 trillion invested in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and $55 trillion invested in stock markets worldwide. In this study, we use the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to identify the main determinants of the returns of the stocks that compose the Dow Jones for the period 1990-2011. We test several hypotheses on the relationship between firm specific variables such as Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield, Book-Market ratio, previous returns and the stock returns. We also document the relationship between several macroeconomic factors including T-bill rate, Default Spread, Term Spread, Unemployment, Real GDP and Inflation and …