Business Commons^™

A Quantitative Analysis On Bitmex Perpetual Inverse Futures Xbtusd Contract, Yue Wu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The perpetual inverse futures contract is a recent and most popularly traded cryptocurrency derivative over crypto derivatives exchanges. Exchanges implement a liquidation mechanism that terminates positions which no longer satisfy maintenance requirements. In this study, we use regression, stochastic calculus, and simulation methods to provide a quantitative description of the wealth/return process for holding an XBTUSD contract on BitMEX, examine the funding rate and index price properties, and relate liquidation to leverage as a stopping time problem. The results will help investors understand liquidation to optimize their trading strategy and researchers in studying the design of crypto derivatives.

Gambling With Debt: The English Premier League, Edward Robinson

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper aims to investigate the impact of debt on financial performance in the English Premier League from the 2000/01 season to the 2017/18 season. Panel model estimations concluded debt has a significant inverse relationship with financial performance. This relationship may potentially be stronger in larger clubs and could be present through human capital investment’s significant direct relationship with financial performance. This further emphasised usages of intangible assets as a player human capital investment indicator, rather than using wage costs like previous studies. Furthermore, filling a gap regarding how capital structures may be used to impact financial performance within’ football.

The Substantial Growth Of Shadow Banking, Financial Technology And Digital Currency And Their Respective Roles In Shaping The Next Financial Crisis, Vardhan S. Chulani Mr.

Undergraduate Economic Review

Based on Goldman Sachs’ model and the state of current affairs, an underlying possibility of a financial crisis occurring in the foreseeable future does exist. This could be due to ongoing trade war and negotiations with different countries, the new policies introduced by political parties and their respective impacts, high amounts of corporate and student debts along with auto loans in the economy, thus indicating signs of excessive leverage and resulting in depressing consumer confidence. International issues such as Brexit, the existing currency and debt crisis with Turkey, and China’s debt bubble could also contribute to the global growth slowdowns. …

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

Exchange-Traded Funds: The Unknown Investment Opportunity, Thomas K. Leisher

Undergraduate Economic Review

Actively managed mutual funds are some of the most invested in investment vehicles in the modern era. However, it is a great misunderstanding of their performance relative to their passively managed exchange-traded funds. Actively managed mutual funds fail to outperform their respective benchmarks due to a variety of reasons including market efficiency, timing, and tax consequences. These findings hold true in both the long-term and short-term for equities and fixed income funds. A self-conducted survey was also conducted in order to find the knowledge and opinions of college students on ETFs and mutual funds.

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.

Impact Of Airplane Crashes On Firm's Credit Risk Under The Creditgrades Model, Alexandros Bougias

Undergraduate Economic Review

The paper examines the impact of airplane accidents with 40 or more fatalities, on airline's firm credit risk. The sample contains 20 airplane crashes for the period 2000-2017. The analysis proposes the CreditGrades model introduced by Finger et al. (2002) , which is an extension of the first passage time model of Black and Cox (1976). The study concludes that airplane accidents lead to a statistically significant increase in airline's Probability of Default. The results are both significant and robust under the t-Test and the non-parametric Wilcoxon Signed-rank test.

The Wall Street Gap: A Theoretical Analysis Of Company Valuation Discrepancy, Peter Twomey

Undergraduate Economic Review

Examination of prior research suggests that affiliated sell-side analysts are subject to conflicts of interest that cause them to issue optimistically biased stock recommendations for investment banking clients. Using a sample of public technology companies, I find that analysts have a theoretical discrepancy of up to 26% when valuing companies using a discounted cash flow model, and a 19-22% theoretical discrepancy when using comparable company analysis. I showcase how conventional valuation methodologies can allow sell-side analysts significant leeway that can be used to further unethical agendas and draw conclusions around the usefulness of regulatory intervention in the financial services industry.

Pricing Asian Options: Volatility Forecasting As A Source Of Downside Risk, Adam T. Diehl

Undergraduate Economic Review

Asian options are a class of derivative securities whose payoffs average movements in the underlying asset as a means of hedging exposure to unexpected market behavior. We find that despite their volatility smoothing properties, the price of an Asian option is sensitive to the choice of volatility model employed to price them from market data. We estimate the errors induced by two common schemes of forecasting volatility and their potential impact upon trading.

The Impact Of Sustainability Reporting On Firm Profitability, Lancee L. Whetman

Undergraduate Economic Review

Using a hand-collected representative sample of 95 publicly traded American firms from various sectors in 2015-2016, I examine how corporate sustainability reporting affects the financial performance of firms. I find a positive and significant effect of sustainability reporting on a firm’s return on equity, return on assets, and profit margin in the subsequent year. However, this relationship is found only for firms with low institutional ownership. These results suggest that sustainability reporting would be a worthwhile use of corporate resources for this subset of firms. Further, corporate sustainability reporting is shown to be an effective substitute for monitoring by institutional …

Is Google Search Behavior Related To Volatility? Incorporating Google Trends Data Into A Garch Model For Equity Volatility, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

Intuitively, one would expect that internet search volume would contain valuable information about investor sentiment for a company. With the development of new data sources, such as Google Trends, this relationship can be more easily and objectively examined. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between a company’s stock price volatility and its Google search volume. A small cross-section of twenty companies is considered, and the goal of this paper is to demonstrate the power of Google Trends data in hope of initiating further research. Using a conventional GARCH framework for financial market volatility, an economically and statistically significant contemporaneous …

The Importance Of Profitability In Determining Volatility Across Industries With Different Debt Levels, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper seeks to investigate the relationship between debt and volatility. No consensus currently exists on the effects of financial leverage on stock volatility. With the increased use of complex financial derivatives in recent decades, the importance of understanding the factors that influence volatility has become extremely important. By looking at a cross-section of industries, this paper demonstrates how the importance of profitability for explaining volatility changes depending on industry debt levels, which are endogenous and depend on industry characteristics.

A Discourse On Diversity: The Impact Of Management Team Heterogeneity On Firm Performance., Robert J. Brown

Undergraduate Economic Review

Quantile models are used to test the association between management team gender, ethnic and educational diversity and firm performance, employing an IV technique developed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2008) to address the potential endogeneity issues. Estimated associations between measures of diversity and firm EBITDA margins are close to zero across much of the dependent variable distribution, but increase in magnitude for higher margin firms. No evidence of a statistically significant causal relationship between gender and ethnic diversity and firm EBITDA margins is found. Marginal evidence of a statistically significant association between margins and educational diversity is found for high margin …

Exploring Economic And Social Factors That Increase Economic And Well-Being Measurements Of Developing And Developed Countries, Kofi D. Boadu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The historical growth paths of developed and developing countries reveal the challenges that developing countries face in traveling the road from poverty to prosperity. Based on economic development literature, economic theory, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method, this research considers whether or not, and to what extent globalization characteristics, foreign direct investment levels (FDI), secondary school enrollment rates, information communication technology (ICT) as a percentage of trade imports, and happiness levels of 103 developing and developed countries, impact their GDP per capita levels. This paper will also take a look at alternative ways of viewing and measuring economic success.

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Is Tech M&A Value-Additive?, Ani Deshmukh

Undergraduate Economic Review

Given rising M&A deal volume across all high-tech subsectors, the ability to measure post-acquisition performance becomes critical. Despite this growth, the relevant academic literature is severely lacking (Kohers and Kohers 2000). Using an event-study approach, I find that acquirers and targets both realize statistically significant day-0 abnormal returns (1.23% [p<0.1] and 8.1% [p<0.01], respectively). As positive stock returns signal positive growth prospects in a semi-strong efficient market, AR regressions found that firms' technological relatedness, deal financing, purchase price premiums, and the relative book to market ratio, explained most variance. Overall, high-tech transactions are value-additive for both targets and acquirers.

The Growing Concern Of Poverty In The United States: An Exploration Of Food Prices And Poverty On Obesity Rates For Low-Income Citizens, Catherine Gillespie, Kathy Gray, Ethan Bailey, John Zivalich

Undergraduate Economic Review

Studies demonstrate the link between income and obesity, determining factors to explain the strong correlation between high body mass index and low socioeconomic status. Many focus on uncovering predictors but few use a systems approach: identifying the interaction among predictors and their relative magnitude concerning obesity. This study asks: do poverty or food price indicators have a statistically stronger relationship with obesity?

By collecting data, evaluating trends, and analyzing statistics, this study extends research by revealing a stronger relationship between obesity and food prices as opposed to obesity and poverty.

Shanghai As An International Financial Center - Aspiration, Reality And Implication, Raph Luo

Undergraduate Economic Review

China’s rapid economic development, especially in the financial sector, has ignited the discussion of the re-emergence of Shanghai as a leading international financial center (IFC). Much still remains to be done for Shanghai to catch up with established centers such as New York and London, including deepening its capital markets and opening itself up to cross-border capital flows. While Shanghai’s current financial development has been made possible largely by China’s past economic conditions and policies, recent reforms are also likely to guarantee Shanghai the position as a world-class onshore IFC in the near future. The rise of Shanghai will likely …

International Tourism, Demand, And Gdp Implications: A Background And Empirical Analysis, Michael Brakke

Undergraduate Economic Review

International tourism, a primary source of growth for many countries, is inadequately represented in the economic literature. This paper attempts to expand upon past research, thereby supplementing some deficiencies and posing new questions. A pooled model for international tourism demand is constructed for 85 countries using fixed-effects specification. In addition to conventional variables, a variable representing political conditions acts as a proxy for the many exogenous impacts that affect tourism. The nature of tourism volatility due to the exogenous shocks is discussed, and a statistical link between concentrations in tourism as an export good and GDP volatility is explored.