Business Commons^™

Revolutionizing Lithium Extraction: Analysis Of Factors Affecting Commercialization Timelines With Insights From The Shale Gas Boom, Bilge Tayyar

CMC Senior Theses

This study draws parallels between Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and hydraulic fracturing to highlight the transformative potential of DLE technology in the lithium industry. The comparative analysis supports the hypothesis that DLE might expedite commercialization timelines, similar to the effect hydraulic fracturing has had on traditional shale gas extraction. The study includes a regression analysis to determine the factors affecting the commercialization of conventional lithium brine extraction methods, thereby better understanding the potential changes DLE will create. The regression model, based on data from 11 projects, examines the impact of variables such as temperature range, tax rates, royalty rates, regulatory …

The Impacts Of Hype And Competition On The Valuations Of Privately-Held U.S. Software Startups, Karan Sudhir Goel

CMC Senior Theses

The impacts of internal conditions on startup valuations have been well studied, but external factors such as market hype and competition have been more restricted to public company valuation research. With soaring valuations in the Generative AI market, an analysis of the relation of hype and competition to startup valuations is timely. I test three hypotheses: (1) More hype about certain business or tech-focused topics is associated with higher valuations for startups operating in those areas (2) More competition is associated with lower valuations for startups (3) The positive effect of hype on valuations is offset by the negative effect …

Towards Algorithmic Justice: Human Centered Approaches To Artificial Intelligence Design To Support Fairness And Mitigate Bias In The Financial Services Sector, Jihyun Kim

CMC Senior Theses

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has positively transformed the Financial services sector but also introduced AI biases against protected groups, amplifying existing prejudices against marginalized communities. The financial decisions made by biased algorithms could cause life-changing ramifications in applications such as lending and credit scoring. Human Centered AI (HCAI) is an emerging concept where AI systems seek to augment, not replace human abilities while preserving human control to ensure transparency, equity and privacy. The evolving field of HCAI shares a common ground with and can be enhanced by the Human Centered Design principles in that they both put humans, the user, at …

Bio-Bust: Investigating Biotech Stock Factors Contributing To Abnormal Returns In The Wake Of Silicon Valley Bank's Failure, Spencer Kent

CMC Senior Theses

Following the unprecedented collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, this study explores abnormal stock price reactions within the biotechnology sector. As the chosen financial institution for countless Silicon Valley-type technology and healthcare firms, SVB's failure had a profound impact on small to mid-sized biotech companies. Analyzing a dataset of 180 biotech firms during a two-day event window over SVB’s collapse, I investigate whether exposure to SVB, or other factors, was the primary contributor to negative abnormal stock price reactions, considering variables such as the percentage of cash held at SVB, whether a firm maintained an active SVB …

Activism Aftershocks: Looking Beyond The Short-Term Stock Surges Caused By Activist Hedge Fund Campaign Announcements, Zara Vakath

CMC Senior Theses

It is well known that firms targeted by activist hedge funds experience positive abnormal stock returns during the campaign announcement window. However, the link between these short-term returns and the impact to long-term target firm performance has not been established. In this study, I find essentially no link between the positive announcement window returns and long-term performance improvements, using a variety of different methods. I examine performance changes over time and also relative to a matched sample of firms that have not been targeted by activist hedge funds. Additionally, I assess the correlation between the magnitude of short-term abnormal stock …

Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the evaluation of investment opportunities in emerging markets (EMs) through real options analysis, against the backdrop of their unique risk profiles and the recent trend of EMs exhibiting resilience in economic performance. While EMs are associated with high growth rates and infrastructure gaps, they have shown adaptability, particularly in monetary policy responses to inflation. This paper explores the sensitivity of net present value (NPV) and real options (RO) to changes in the capital asset pricing model, adapting the yield spread to capture default risk and local risk-free rates. Utilizing oil benchmark price data, the paper constructs a …

The Impact Of International Baseball Players On Mlb Organizations: An Analysis Of Performance, Attendance, Revenue, And Valuation, 2012-2022, Aidan Booth

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the impact of international baseball players on MLB organizations. The paper uses the Sean Lahman Database focusing on team-wide statistics including performance metrics, winning percentage, and attendance. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression model, the paper examines the effect of share of foreign-born players on team success, attendance, revenue, and valuation. The dataset controls for a number of variables throughout these regressions including payroll, population, stadium capacity, number of all stars on each team, and the number of competing professional sports teams in the metropolitan area in order to isolate the effect of foreign-born players on …

Unions’ Impact On Firms’ Financial Decision Making: A Look At Right-To-Work Laws And Their Impact On Firms’ Leverage Decisions, Rachana Muvvala

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of unions on firms’ financial decision making by exploring their capital structure, specifically leverage. I test two opposing hypotheses to understand the relationship between unions and firms’ leverage: (1) the bargaining hypothesis which suggests that firms use higher leverage as a bargaining device with unions, and (2) the crowding-out hypothesis which suggests that firms have lower leverage because unions crowd out their debt capacity due to their perceived riskiness. Focusing on the 2007 to 2022 period, I examine right-to-work (RTW) laws, since they are exogenous shocks that decrease union power in five different states. Then, I …

Market Reaction Test On Banks & Brokers Based On Bitcoin Price History. A Look At National Commercial Banks And Security Broker, Exchanges, And Service Stocks Following The Most Volatile Swings In Bitcoin’S Price., Payton Earl

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines if there is an inverse correlation between Bitcoin’s most volatile price swings and national commercial banks and security brokers, exchanges and service companies performance. Company performance in the dataset is measured by Cumulative Abnormal Returns during 2021 within a two-day period where Bitcoin has had the most significant uptick and downtick events. Using a market-adjusted model for my regression, it is concluded that Bitcoin’s largest uptick event did indeed have an inversely negative effect on traditional banks and trading securities companies, as the Cumulative Abnormal Returns were negative for my 107 observations and the event was statistically …

The Effects Of Ai On Recruiting In The Accounting Field, Reina Tain

CMC Senior Theses

This work investigated the impact of AI in accounting firms, particularly on the hiring scene. As AI use increases in the accounting industry, it would have a significant impact on what types of accountants firms are starting to hire, which this paper examines. This work incorporates research found through various accounting and business-related articles that discusses the impact of AI on recruiting in accounting firms. This paper found that candidates with high knowledge of technology with excellent communication and critical thinking skills are more likely to be hired by firms. The results indicate that recruiters prefer accountants that are curious …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Ai-Nvesting: An Empirical Analysis With Sector Categorization And Prompt Complexity Considerations Assessing The Predictive Power Of Chatgpt In Stock Market Forecasting, Ian J. Larson

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

This paper investigates whether ChatGPT has any predictive power when it comes to the stock market. Since its public release in December 2022, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has become a popular tool for millions of users across the world. With new use cases being found every day, I explore whether the system has any utility at predicting where stock prices will go. Using a 10-year study window, I prompt ChatGPT to give U.S. equity picks on a one-year holding period basis, segregating its picks into 3 different category sizes across 8 directed prompts. I examine the 24 equal weight portfolios of …

Ceo Characteristics That Lead To Extreme Outperformance: A Statistical Analysis Of William Thorndike’S “The Outsiders”, William Turner

CMC Senior Theses

What makes a high-performing CEO? What CEOs should you invest in? These are the questions that the Board of Directors, headhunters, academics, and investors all seek the answer to. This paper explores the answer to this question by examining CEO performance at the extremes. Inspired by the work of William N. Thorndike’s “The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success,” this study expands upon his methodology, employing a statistical approach to analyze a broader dataset of CEOs over the past thirty years. Using a logit model of hyper-outperforming versus hyper-underperforming CEOs, it assesses the …

The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between the Paycheck Protec- tion Program (PPP) and real estate price increases. The Paycheck Protection Program was established by the Small Business Association in 2020 to pro- vide forgivable loans to businesses to aid with potential losses from COVID- 19 impacts. I leverage zip code level data across the United States and a fixed effects panel data model to quantitatively measure the PPP’s influence on housing and rental prices. I find a positive and significant relationship between the number of PPP loans disbursed and housing and rental rates. Specifically, a 1% change in the number …

Listed Private Equity Returns: The Forecasting Power Of Premiums And Discounts, Daniel Krasemann

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I assess the ability of premiums and discounts to predict future listed private equity returns. I hypothesize that the premiums and discounts of the net asset value of the listed private equity funds with monthly lags hold forecasting power. I use four distinct listed private equity indices and their respective NAV P/D values for my research. To ensure my analysis is realistic in scope, I incorporate a variety of macroeconomic variables that have been proven to influence listed private equity returns. I structure my time-period analysis around the 2008-09 financial crisis. I generally find that a two-month …

Playing To Win: The Effects Of Implementing Gamification Strategies In Product Marketing, Sabrina Stone

CMC Senior Theses

Let’s play a game. What effect do you think video games have on twenty-first-century marketing? In this age defined by its nature of digitality, capturing the attention of consumers is an arduous competition. Through market segmentation, research, and the observable variables of consumer behavior, product marketing has turned to video games as a solution to appeal to younger demographics. Gamification is an increasingly applied product marketing strategy employed to increase favorable metrics. Of those key performance indicators (KPIs), boosted measures such as click-through rates, impressions, and engagement rates suggest that gamification is a strategic opportunity to persuade consumers to take …

Doing Well While Doing Good? The Cost Of Responsible Investing, Elizabeth Iwicki

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I estimate the monthly alpha of highly rated ESG stocks, with the motivation to assess the effects of ESG investors on public equity markets. I hypothesize, consistent with the motivating theory of Heinkel et al. (2001), that the shift in investor preferences toward ESG-friendly investments leads to the underperformance of a broad ESG portfolio relative to a portfolio of comparable stocks. I test my hypothesis using the methodology of Hong and Kacperczyk (2009) and Wallace (2022), where I apply the methods to an ESG portfolio rather than a “sin” portfolio. Consistent with my hypothesis, I find that …

Institutional Capital Effect’S On Single-Family Housing Markets, Henry Harvego

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of institutional investors on single-family housing markets, analyzing six dependent variables and two independent variables across 39 metropolitan cities. Despite receiving significant media attention during the COVID-19 pandemic, the study finds that the impact of institutional investors on median sale price is small and negative. However, institutional investors significantly impact other aspects of the housing market, including homes sold, new listings, inventory, days on market, and average-sale-to-list ratios. The results suggest that institutional investors are creating a more productive market, with transactions happening more quickly and more often. In light of these findings, policy discussions …

My Physical-Digital Self: Exploring The Detrimental Effects Of The Metaverse On Relationship & Identity Development, Sophia De Castro

CMC Senior Theses

The metaverse, which is the next iteration of the internet--an immersive, virtual world--poses a threat to the essential human need for healthy relationship and identity development. Coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of isolation and virtual socialization led many to prefer physical experiences, despite society’s overall dependency on and connectedness to the internet and technological devices. Framed by Maslow’s hierarchy of human psychological needs, Turkle’s analysis of the human relationship to earlier forms of virtual reality, and Foucault’s principles of caring for and knowing the self, this paper argues that the metaverse will be detrimental towards developing participant’s …

Blockchain Games: What On And Off-Chain Factors Affect The Volatility, Returns, And Liquidity Of Gaming Crypto Tokens, Sumer Sareen

CMC Senior Theses

Blockchain games took the internet by storm as they offered a new way for users to play video games, own the assets in those games, and benefit monetarily from their efforts. Through Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrencies, new, Web3 games ushered in a unique asset class for retail and institutional investors to diversify into and benefit from. This paper uses cross-sectional data from 30 blockchain gaming companies to identify on and off-chain factors that affect the company’s token volatility, returns, and liquidity. A multiple linear regression found the percentage of tokens dedicated to a company’s private sale and rewarding users, …

The Psychology Behind The Marketing Of Alcohol And Tobacco: How We Convince People To Do Things That Are Bad For Them, Sophie Dvorkin

CMC Senior Theses

The marketing tactics of the alcohol and tobacco industry are inextricably linked through the psychological basis upon which these companies target their customers. Through the principles of reciprocity, social proof, scarcity, commitment and consistency, unity, and authority featured in Robert Cialdini’s book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (2021). The principle of reciprocity explains how companies get customers to buy in, social proof explains our dependence on our peers’ validation, and scarcity explains why we want what we can’t have. The principles of commitment and consistency explain how companies garner long-term customers that see themselves as an extension of a brand, …

Executive Option Mix And Firm Litigation Risk, Andrew Cohen

CMC Senior Theses

Compensating executives with stock options creates incentives for executives and aligns their goals with shareholders. When examining specific components of equity-based compensation, stock options have a larger incentive effect on executives compared to stock awards as options are priced as a function of stock volatility. Since the option incentive effect is more profound than the stock incentive effect, executives may take on more risk. The relationship between firm risk and litigation can be demonstrated by the pricing of directors’ and officers’ liability insurance, which protects them from the costs of litigation. The purpose of this study is to examine the …

An Analysis Of Salary Difference For Left-Handed Pitchers, Jarrett Korson

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether there is a difference in salary for left-handed pitchers in Major League Baseball. I review prior research regarding the valuation of MLB pitchers, salary discrimination in baseball, and left-handed pitchers to shape my methodology. Using Sean Lahman’s Baseball Database, I utilize various regression models to analyze effects on salary. Variables are transformed into cumulative, per 9- inning values and left-handed interaction variables are created to observe any difference in salary experienced only by left-handers. The models show that for variables with a statistically significant effect on salary, left-handers experience a statistically significant effect on salary above …

Modeling The Performance-Based Compensation Of Mlb Catchers, William Deforest

CMC Senior Theses

How professional baseball players are compensated for their on-field performance and contribution to winning baseball games has been studied many times by baseball analysts, yet no real attempt has been made to focus solely on the catcher position. As one of the most demanding and specialized positions in the game, a talented catcher is vital to a team’s success. This paper attempts to utilize Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Offensive Runs Above Average (OFF), leading statistics that use Statcast data to measure defensive and offensive productivity, to determine which area of catcher defense is the greatest differentiator between elite defensive …

Do Divestment Announcements Affect Fossil Fuel Company Stock Returns?, Wesley Dale

CMC Senior Theses

In response to growing dissatisfaction from environmental activists, many large institutional investors have committed to divesting from fossil fuel related assets. Understanding the financial effects of these divestment movements is crucial to assessing their impact on climate change. Using a financial event study methodology with a sample of 50 divestment announcements from 2014 to 2022, this paper examines the effect that the announcement of these divestment decisions has on the stock returns of oil & gas and coal companies. I find the short term effect on stock prices following a divestment announcement to be insignificant, and I show that more …

Does Firm Payout Behavior Serve As A Signal For Future Profitability?, Michael Colangelo

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper I explore the potential signaling capability that payout behavior, in the forms of dividends and share repurchases, has on the profitability of a firm. To do so, I analyze the relationship that dividends paid, share repurchases, and total payout have with asset turnover, return on assets, and EBITDA margin across different time structures. Next, I aim to understand if there is a significant differential impact of negative payout growth compared to positive payout growth, on the growth of the same performance measures above. I found that an increase in share repurchases and total payout both lead to …

Geographic Dynamics Of Multifamily Capitalization Rates: A Comprehensive Study Of Variation And Determinants, Zachary Torrey

CMC Senior Theses

Capitalization Rates are a dynamic measurement utilized in real estate to assess investment opportunities. The cap rate is the best apples-to-apples comparison metric available to investors to compare and prioritize investments. As such, there is a large emphasis in the real estate field on understanding the best predictive indicators of cap rate variation across geographies. In this analysis, I focus on multifamily cap rates and examine what are the best predictive indicators that explain the level of the cap rate across geographies over time. In doing so, I identify three novel variables that influence the cap rate as well as …

The Effect Of Changes In Us Money Supply On S&P 500 Returns During The Global Financial Crisis And Covid-19 Recession, Connor Cryan

CMC Senior Theses

The goal of this paper is to perform a comparative analysis between the United States Federal Reserve’s response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recession, and determine how each response affected the United States stock market. I have found that during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, money supply increases did not have a substantial impact on the US stock market, while factors such as market volatility and unemployment rate had highly significant negative effects on stock returns. During the COVID-19 recession, money supply changes did have an impact on stock returns, and had a positive relationship with …

The Supplier Shield: Covid-19 Effects On Suppliers Of Highly Affected Industries, Maisy Mills

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect Covid-19 has on hard-hit industries and their suppliers. By looking at the widening of credit spreads on corporate bonds, a shield can be observed through the disproportionate way Covid affects hard-hit companies compared to their suppliers. The dataset looks specifically at three highly affected industries which are accommodation, air transportation, and full-service restaurants. This paper runs a linear regression that looks at the effect that being one of the main 3 frontline industries has on credit spreads of corporate bonds versus that from being a supplier of these industries. The regression highlights the effects that …

Source Credibility And Persuasive Communication: Effects On Social Media Influencers, Influencer Marketing, And Consumer Attitude Change, Isabelle Jia

CMC Senior Theses

Social psychology has long been researching how source credibility influences persuasive communication. With the world transitioning into a society interested in digital consumption, communication, and connection, this paper serves as a literature review of how different characteristics of source credibility can aid influencer credibility through various modes of social media messaging. The examination of three source credibility characteristics: 1) expertise, 2) trustworthiness, and 3) likability showcase how social media influencers can establish credibility with their consumers and build further connections with them. The results underline the importance of source credibility in influencing consumer attitude change and behavior over continued exposure …