Business Commons^™

Individuals Approaching Retirement Have Options (Literally) To Secure A Comfortable Retirement, Bryan Foltice

Bryan Foltice

This article examines the critical final five-year period leading up to retirement and analyzes whether traditional asset-allocation strategies effectively and consistently assist individuals in reaching their retirement income goals as they approach retirement. These traditional strategies are evaluated against alternative, option-based investment strategies that assure a certain amount of retirement income, after adjusting for inflation, while maximizing stock participation with the remaining funds in the portfolio through the use of options. In this simulation, we find higher overall expected yields in the traditional investment strategies over the evaluated five-year period. However, after applying a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) coefficient, …

In Equations We Trust? Formula Learning Effects On The Exponential Growth Bias, Bryan Foltice, Thomas Langer

Bryan Foltice

This paper evaluates the possible benefits and drawbacks of the formal formula learning of compound growth as it pertains to eliminating, or at least reducing, the exponential growth bias in various household savings and debt decisions. In our main experimental study, we determine if the ability to calculate the simple compound savings formula only assists in its direct area of application with an available calculator, or if this knowledge extends into similar exponentially-based savings and debt decisions when either a calculator is prohibited or when the formula is unknown. In the process of tackling this research question, we develop a …

Ringing The Bell: Does It Matter And Why?, Steven Dolvin, Hinh Khieu, Mark Pyles

Steven D. Dolvin

We explore the ongoing debate between market efficiency and behavioral finance by examining the market’ s reaction to what most investors would consider an information-neutral event: a firm ringing the opening or closing bell on the NYSE. Consistent with behavioral theories, we find that firms who ring the opening bell experience, on average, a positive abnormal return on the event day; however, we find that the reaction is concentrated in a particular group of participants. Specifically, we find the abnormal returns are driven almost entirely by firms who are celebrating the transfer of their stock listing to the NYSE. Given …

The Impact Of Board Structure On Ipo Underpricing, Steven Dolvin, Jack Kirby

Steven D. Dolvin

Prior research has examined the impact of board structure on firm performance and found that characteristics such as board size affect both operating and stock price performance. Existing research has concentrated primarily on performance in periods well removed from a firm’s initial public offering (IPO), and relatively little research has examined the impact of board structure on the stock price performance of IPOs, particularly with regard to characteristics other than board size. This study fills this gap, finding that the key board characteristic is the percentage external directors on the board. The authors find that the greater the percentage of …

Aggression In Mixed Martial Arts: An Analysis Of The Likelihood Of Winning A Decision, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Within the last decade, mixed martial arts has become one of the most popular sports worldwide. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest and most successful organization within the industry. In the USA, however, the sport is not sanctioned in all states because some politicians view the sport as too violent. The sport consists of many fighting forms and, unlike boxing, winning a decision requires judging in multiple facets including wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. In this study, we estimate the likelihood of winning a decision in the UFC. Using data on individual fights, we estimate the probability of …

Measuring Technical Efficiency In Sports, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Standard economic production theory is the basis for measuring technical efficiency in sports. Using programming or regression models, efficiency is defined as the distance of a given team observation from the technology. In this article, the authors show that the standard measures of efficiency using deterministic models are biased downward due to serial correlation with respect to the efficiency measure. In particular, if the number of observed wins for a given team is affected by the team’s inefficiency, it is necessarily true that another team is able to produce outside of the technology. As a result, the observed frontier is …

Estimation Of Multi-Output Production Functions In Commercial Fisheries, Trevor Collier, Andrew Mamula, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Measuring the productivity of vessels in a multi-species fishery can be problematic. Typical regression techniques are not capable of handling multiple outputs while Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) tends to ignore the stochastic nature of production. Applied economists have devoted considerable time to this problem and have developed several methods of dealing with the issue of multiple output technologies in commercial fisheries. Our paper contributes to this literature by providing another method for estimating production functions of vessels operating in multi-species fisheries. We utilize a two-stage model – with data from the West Coast Limited Entry Groundfish Trawl Fishery – using …

The Relationship Between Output Variability And Growth: Evidence From Post War U.K. Data, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Tony Caporale

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.

What Moves Retail Property Returns At The Metropolitan Level?, Mark Eppli, James Shilling, Kerry Vandell

Mark J. Eppli

In this article the determinants of metropolitan-level appraisal-based retail property returns are examined by estimating a six-equation model of retail construction starts, retail sales, stock-market returns, commercial mortgage rates, inflation, and the logarithm of stock-market volatility. Residuals from these equations are then used to explain actual movements in retail real estate returns. Our empirical procedure looks at both unadjusted and unsmoothed appraisal-based retail real estate returns. The general finding is that unsmoothed appraisal-based retail real estate returns lag significantly behind market conditions. Furthermore, the results suggest that very little of the variation in metropolitan-level appraisal-based retail real estate returns can …

How Critical Is A Good Location To A Regional Shopping Center?, Mark Eppli, James Shilling

Mark J. Eppli

The goal of this paper is to empirically measure the consumer utility trade-off between store location (i.e., distance to a shopping center) and retail agglomeration in regional shopping centers. Using the Lakshmanan and Hansen retail expenditure model, our findings reveal that the distance specification is of surprisingly little importance in explaining retail sales. Conversely, agglomeration economies were of significant importance in explaining consumer patronage at regional shopping centers. The implication of these results is that smaller regional shopping centers may be dominated by large super-regional shopping centers with the smaller one or two anchor regional shopping centers unable to compete …

Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles Tu, Mark Eppli

Mark J. Eppli

Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the …

Achieving Financial Stability Through Financial Market Integration With Asia, Ahmed Khalid, Asif Saeed

Ahmed Khalid

Extract; The White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century (Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ) [DPMC], 2012) correctly indicated that Asia’s extraordinary recent economic performance as well as the future economic outlook cannot be overlooked when planning Australia’s future economic prospects. It is strategically and geographically important for Australia to integrate itself with Asia, in order to achieve and maintain sustainable economic growth. The Asian success story emphasises the important role of the financial market development and integration in providing financial stability to the region. This is especially true in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis …

Assessing Accountability In U.S. Public Education, Anne Kelly, J. Orris

Anne Kelly

Public education accountability rests almost exclusively with schools rather than governments. This paper explores its three dimensions: economy, efficiency, and effectiveness. Performance indicators of these dimensions were developed which facilitated testing of significant differences in means over time using analysis of variance. Only salary and wage expenditures per instruction personnel exhibited greater economy. Instructional equipment per pupil was related to increased efficiency. Several indicators suggested enhanced effectiveness. Student/teacher ratio declined and top performers in public schools improved in achievement. Graduation rate, an indicator of achievement and participation, significantly rose in recent years. In summary, several effectiveness indicators revealed encouraging trends …

Off The Rack Versus Savile Row: The Value Of Custom Tailoring For Equity Investors, Steven Dolvin, John Gonas

Steven D. Dolvin

eparately managed accounts (SMAs) generally carry a higher fee structure than standard mutual funds, but managers tout the ability to customize accounts as being worthy of this higher cost. This customization may increase returns, or it may simply allow for more personalized tax management or control over other unique circumstances. • Very little research exists on the relative return benefit of SMAs compared with actively managed mutual funds. We fill this gap by examining firms that offer concurrently managed funds-SMAs as well as matching mutual funds run by the same manager(s) and following the same general strategy. • We find …

Fragmentation And Consolidation Of Dark Order Books, Julia Henker, Thomas Henker, Jay Majtyka

Thomas Henker

No abstract provided.

Is It Time To Reconsider The Semivariance Again? A Note, Ladd Kochman

Ladd Kochman

Building on the assumption that stock returns are less-than-symmetric, the semivariances (SV) are computed for 14 domestic and foreign stock indices as well as their respective arithmetic means (AM) and standard deviations (SD) and hypotheses that the correlation between SVs and AMs will be both positive and greater than the correlation between SDs and AMs.

Falling Knives: Extreme Value Investing, Ladd Kochman, James Tompkins

Ladd Kochman

We identified 979 stocks with year-ending losses of 60 percent or more during the 1993-2002 period. Post-fall returns extended our analysis through 2005. Unlike previous research, we screened our "falling knives" for financial strength to promote a greater likelihood of recovery and minimize any survivorship bias. When we added the constraint of Altman Z-Scores > 3.0, our data set shrank to 790 stocks and produced two-year and three-year average annual returns that tripled their market counterparts.

Time Diversification: Tool, Fallacy Or Both?, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin

Ladd Kochman

It seems fair to conclude that time diversification is more nearly a fallacy than a tool. Total periodic returns based on random annual outcomes expose the practice of diversifying with time not only as unproductive but as extremely risky as well. Yet, as the contrived distribution of alternating returns of 30% and -10% demonstrated, it is impossible to completely reject the idea that risk can actually decrease over time.

Portfolio Evaluation, Downside Risk And An Anomaly, Ladd Kochman

Ladd Kochman

Owing to the developments in portfolio theory in the 1960s, the evaluation of portfolio performance has evolved from a return-only mentality to a process that makes risk no less important than return. Earliest efforts to combine the two dimensions into a single (or composite) measure belong to Treynor (1965) and Sharpe (1966), who suggested dividing a portfolio's return in excess of the risk-free rate by the portfolio's bets and standard deviation, respectively. When Fama (1972) recommended that portfolios pay premiums that capture both market and diversification risk, he was implicitly asking whether Jensen's (1968) use of beta sufficiently measures the …

Securities Market Efficiency And The Reigning Super Bowl Champions, Ladd Kochman

Ladd Kochman

The vulnerability of stock prices has long intrigued investors and researchers. Beating the market has an inescapable appeal. The overwhelming evidence that regular above average returns are denied to all but those with inside information has not slowed efforts to find market errors or tap into profitable trends. One reason for hope is that past studies have never truly resolved how long securities must be held before a particular trading strategy can be measured. Pankoff has proposed that the market for bets on National Football League games can serve as a proxy for the securities market. Examining recent studies using …

The Why And How Of Mutual Fund Standard Deviations, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin

Ladd Kochman

To the interested observer, mutual fund standard deviations raise two tantalizing questions: Are standard deviations relevant when funds, by definition, eliminate the unsystematic component of total risk? and How can two respected giants in the investments field like Fidelity and Morningstar use the same returns, intervals and measurement period for the same fund and end up with glaringly different standard deviations? To answer the question of relevance, we recall Evans and Archer's (1968) argument that as much as 90 percent of a portfolio's unsystematic risk can be diversified away with 12 to 18 stocks. Since that diversifiable risk is a …

New Ventures: Control Of Risks Through Strategies, Simone Kelly, Raymond Mcnamara

Ray McNamara

This paper uses case studies and interview data to explore the relationship between control and new venture success/survival. A model of the new venture control process is distilled and explored in six new venture cases. The control processes were traced through an examination of the everyday language of venture principals to determine a grounded lower order model. Integrating these models into contingency theory locates strategic risk reduction choices as the crucial link between contingent variables and organizational control packages. In this sense the process of organizing is seen as a tiered process of risk reduction: successful firms analyze and control …

New Ventures: Control Of Risks Through Strategies, Simone Kelly, Raymond Mcnamara

Simone Kelly

This paper uses case studies and interview data to explore the relationship between control and new venture success/survival. A model of the new venture control process is distilled and explored in six new venture cases. The control processes were traced through an examination of the everyday language of venture principals to determine a grounded lower order model. Integrating these models into contingency theory locates strategic risk reduction choices as the crucial link between contingent variables and organizational control packages. In this sense the process of organizing is seen as a tiered process of risk reduction: successful firms analyze and control …

Retail Investor Preferences And The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle, Julia Henker, Thomas Henker, Deborah Tan

Thomas Henker

We explain the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns observed by previous researchers. We argue that, based on the observation described in prospect theory, retail investors prefer stocks with a high level of idiosyncratic volatility and are consequently willing to overpay for those stocks. In support of our argument, we find that the negative idiosyncratic-volatility return relation is present in the Australian market, and that this relation is affected by the magnitude of retail trading. The relation is particularly strong when returns and realized volatility are measured at a daily frequency.

When Less Is More: The Benefit Of Limits On Executive Pay, Peter Cebon, Benjamin Hermalin

Peter Cebon

We derive conditions under which limits on executive compensation can enhance efficiency and benefit shareholders (but not executives). Having their hands tied in the future allows a board of directors to credibly enter into relational contracts with executives that are more efficient than performance-contingent contracts. This has implications for the ideal composition of the board. The analysis also offers insights into the political economy of executive-compensation reform.

Determinants Of Acquirer-Target Distance In M&A, Bumseok Chun, Taenyun Kim

Bumseok Chun

No abstract provided.

Discussions On Long-Term Financial Choice, Kuan Kiat Cheah, Douglas F. Foster, Richard Heaney, Timothy Higgins, Barry Oliver, Terry O'Neill, Roslyn Russell

Terry O'Neill

Emerging Market Mutual Funds: Recent Trends In Performance, Expenses, Composition And Growth, Will Bertin, Laurie Prather, Li-Anne Woo

Li-Anne Woo

Emerging market mutual funds are a rapidly growing mutual fund category. This growth is most likely due to their impressive realized returns, although their returns may be quite volatile. This study reports on emerging market mutual funds' characteristics and performance relative to domestic and international equity mutual funds and also details the significant growth in these funds. We further consider the investment allocations of the three categories of funds among developing versus mature markets. Our results suggest that the superior performance of emerging market mutual funds more than adequately compensates for their higher risk, and thus provides a sound justification …

What Do Options Have To Do With It?: Inclusion Of Options Market Indicators In Bid-Ask Spread Decomposition, David Michayluk, Laurie Prather, Li-Anne Woo, Henry Yip

Li-Anne Woo

This paper develops a cross-market model to extend Huang and Stoll (1997) by utilizing information from trade flows in the options market. Empirical tests reveal a significant increase in the estimated adverse information component, which stays consistent irrespective of the degree of option leverage. Further, intraday variation in stock bid-ask spread components is affected by the stock trade size and the extent of imbalance in information-based option trades. Including the options market information in decomposition of the stock bid-ask spread enhances the quality of its estimation.

Emerging Market Mutual Funds: Recent Trends In Performance, Expenses, Composition And Growth, Will Bertin, Laurie Prather, Li-Anne Woo

Laurie Prather

Emerging market mutual funds are a rapidly growing mutual fund category. This growth is most likely due to their impressive realized returns, although their returns may be quite volatile. This study reports on emerging market mutual funds' characteristics and performance relative to domestic and international equity mutual funds and also details the significant growth in these funds. We further consider the investment allocations of the three categories of funds among developing versus mature markets. Our results suggest that the superior performance of emerging market mutual funds more than adequately compensates for their higher risk, and thus provides a sound justification …