Business Commons^™

Ssrn As An Initial Revolution In Academic Knowledge Aggregation And Dissemination, David Bray, Sascha Vitzthum, Benn Konsynski

Sascha Vitzthum

Within this paper we consider our results of using the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) over a period of 18 months to distribute our working papers to the research community. Our experiences have been quite positive, with SSRN serving as a platform both to inform our colleagues about our research as well as inform us about related research (through email and telephoned conversations of colleagues who discovered our paper on SSRN). We then discuss potential future directions for SSRN to consider, and how SSRN might well represent an initial revolution in 21st century academic knowledge aggregation and dissemination. Our paper …

Towards Self-Organizing, Smart Business Networks: Let’S Create ‘Life’ From Inert Information, David Bray, Benn Konsynski

David A. Bray

We review three different theories that can inform how researchers can determine the performance of smart business networks, to include: (1) the Theory of Evolution, (2) the Knowledge-Based Theory of the Firm, and (3) research insights into computers and cognition. We suggest that each of these theories demonstrate that to be generally perceived as smart, an organism needs to be self-organizing, communicative, and tool-making. Consequentially, to determine the performance of a smart business network, we suggest that researchers need to determine the degree to which it is self-organizing, communicative, and tool-making. We then relate these findings to the Internet and …

Leading Firms As Knowledge Gatekeepers In A Networked Environment, Deogratias Harorimana Mr

Dr Deogratias Harorimana

This chapter introduces the role of the knowledge gatekeeper as a mechanism by which knowledge is created and transferred in a networked environment. Knowledge creation and transfer are essential for building a knowledge based economy. The chapter considers obstacles that inhibit this process and argues that leading firms create a shared socio-cultural context that enables the condivision of tacit meanings and codification of knowledge. Leading firms act as gatekeepers of knowledge through the creation of shared virtual platforms. There will be a leading firm that connects several networks of clients and suppliers may not interact directly with one another, but …

Estimated P-Values In Discrete Models: Asymptotic And Non-Asymptotic Effects, Chris Lloyd

Chris J. Lloyd

The exact null distribution of a P-value typically depends on nuisance parameters unspecified under the null. For discrete models and standard approximate P-values, this dependence can be quite strong. The estimated (or bootstrap) P-value is the exact probability of the P-value being no larger than its observed value, with the null estimate of the nuisance parameter substituted. For continuous models, it is known that such `bootstrap' P-values deviate from uniformity by terms of order m^{-3/2}, where m is a measure of sample size. The main difficulty with discrete models is the breakdown of asymptotics near the boundary. The aim of …

Two-Phase Simulation Optimisation Procedure With Applications To Multi-Echelon Cyclic Planning, Galina Merkuryeva, Liana Napalkova

Liana Napalkova

No abstract provided.

Locally Adaptive Nonparametric Binary Regression, Sally Wood, Martin Tanner, Wenxin Jiang, Robert Kohn, Remy Cottet

Sally Wood

No abstract provided.

Development Of Multi-Objective Simulation-Based Genetic Algorithm For Supply Chain Cyclic Planning And Optimisation, Galina Merkuryeva, Liana Napalkova

Liana Napalkova

No abstract provided.

Theoretical Framework Of Multi-Objective Simulation-Based Genetic Algorithm For Supply Chain Cyclic Planning And Optimisation, Liana Napalkova, Galina Merkuryeva

Liana Napalkova

No abstract provided.

Jual Obat Penggugur Kandungan Di Jakarta 081353395338 Obat Cytotec Di Jakarta, Situs Blogspot

situs blogspot

Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings (iii) what is new (iv) how the book is organized (v) advice on using the book, and (vi) who should read the book.

Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with doing the best for oneself. The research comes from many fields, but primarily from education, sports, the performing arts,and psychology. The results have been consistent, clear-cut, and surprising: competition typically results in less creativity, poorer performance, and reduced satisfaction.

On The Interpretation Of Factor Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Peer Soelberg

J. Scott Armstrong

The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two-thirds of the papers provide no measure of reliability. In fact, some papers did not even provide sufficient information to allow for replication. To improve the current situation some …

Evidence On The Value Of Strategic Planning In Marketing: How Much Planning Should A Marketing Planner Plan?, J. Scott Armstrong, David J. Reibstein

J. Scott Armstrong

What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This paper reviews the evidence. This includes two tests of face validity. First, we use the market test: Are formal procedures used for marketing planning? Next, we examine expert prescriptions: What do they say is the best way to plan? More important than face validity, however, are tests of construct or predictive validity: What empirical evidence exists on the relative value of formal and informal approaches to marketing planning? The paper concludes with suggestions on the types of research that would be most useful for measuring …

A Comparative Study Of Methods For Long-Range Market Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael C. Grohman

J. Scott Armstrong

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air …

Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy

J. Scott Armstrong

This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct validity, sensitivity to small changes, protection against outliers, and their relationship to decision making. The results lead us to recommend the Geometric Mean of the Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE) when the task involves calibrating a model for a set of time series. The GMRAE compares the absolute error of a given method to that from the random walk forecast. For selecting the most accurate methods, we recommend the Median RAE (MdRAE)when …

The Value Of Formal Planning For Strategic Decisions: Review Of Empirical Research, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is, use an explicit approach for setting objectives, generating strategies, evaluating strategies, monitoring results, and obtaining commitment. To determine whether these findings could be applied to strategic decision making in organizations, a review was made of all published field research on the evaluation of formal planning. Formal planning was superior in 10 of the 15 comparisons drawn from 12 studies, while informal planning was superior in only two comparisons. Although this research did not provide sufficient information on the use of various aspects of the planning …

A Generic Design Environment For The Rural Industry Knowledge Acquisition (With Don Kerr And John Gammack), Shah Jahan Miah

Dr Shah Jahan Miah

This paper describes a new knowledge acquisition method using a generic design environment where context-sensitive knowledge is used to build specific DSS for rural business. Although standard knowledge acquisition methods have been applied in rural business applications, uptake remains low and familiar weaknesses such as obsolescence and brittleness apply. We describe a decision support system (DSS) building environment where contextual factors relevant to the end users are directly taken into consideration. This ‘‘end user enabled design environment” (EUEDE) engages both domain experts in creating an expert knowledge base and business operators/end users (such as farmers) in using this knowledge for …

Economic Implications Of Copulas And Extremes, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Validation Of Programmes Of Higher Education In Ireland - The Role Of The Higher Education And Training Awards Council, Deirdre Lillis, Tara Ryan

Deirdre Lillis

This paper considers the programme validation arrangements in place in one half of the Irish higher education sector. It outlines how responsibility for programme validation can be safely delegated to Institutions within a robust overarching framework for quality assurance. It compares programme validation in Institutions with self awarding status with Institutions that have their programmes validated by a national Awarding agency. The paper concludes that when programme validation in Ireland and (potentially) across Europe is examined more closely, processes that appear to be very different on the surface can be quite similar in reality. From a philosophical perspective it appears …

Tourism Development In Aqaba And Human Sustainability, Philadelphia University

Philadelphia University, Jordan

No abstract provided.

Evidence Contrary To The Statistical View Of Boosting, David Mease, A. Wyner

David Mease

The statistical perspective on boosting algorithms focuses on optimization, drawing parallels with maximum likelihood estimation for logistic regression. In this paper we present empirical evidence that raises questions about this view. Although the statistical perspective provides a theoretical framework within which it is possible to derive theorems and create new algorithms in general contexts, we show that there remain many unanswered important questions. Furthermore, we provide examples that reveal crucial flaws in the many practical suggestions and new methods that are derived from the statistical view. We perform carefully designed experiments using simple simulation models to illustrate some of these …

Bayesian Density Forecasting Of Intraday Electricity Prices Using Multivariate Skew T Distributions, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Electricity spot prices exhibit strong time series properties, including substantial periodicity, both inter-day and intraday serial correlation, heavy tails and skewness. In this paper we capture these characteristics using a first order vector autoregressive model with exogenous effects and a skew t distributed disturbance. The vector is longitudinal, in that it comprises observations on the spot price at intervals during a day. A band two inverse scale matrix is employed for the disturbance, as well as a sparse autoregressive coefficient matrix. This corresponds to a parsimonious dependency structure that directly relates an observation to the two immediately prior, and the …

Carbon Disclosure Project Report 2008 S&P 500, Lisa Zilinski

Lisa Zilinski

"This year’s Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) U.S. report comes at a pivotal point in the race to address global climate change. While public policy, consumer concern, and stakeholder awareness have converged on the issue, the need for corporate America to actively confront the challenges a carbon-constrained global economy presents has never been more urgent."

The Role Of Survival Analysis In Financial Distress Prediction, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar

Adrian Gepp

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly in financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models has been recently emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high profile businesses in both Australia and overseas, such as HIH (Australia) and Enron (USA). Consequently, there has been a significant increase in interest in business failure prediction from both industry and academia. Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses have been the most popular approaches, but there are also a large number …

The Risk Components Of Liquidity, Lorán Chollete, Randi Naes, Johannes Skjeltorp

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Cascading Infrastructure Failures: Avoidance And Response, George H. Baker, Cheryl J. Elliott

George H Baker

No critical infrastructure is self-sufficient. The complexity inherent in the interdependent nature of infrastructure systems complicates planning and preparedness for system failures. Recent wide-scale disruption of infrastructure on the Gulf Coast due to weather, and in the Northeast due to electric power network failures, dramatically illustrate the problems associated with mitigating cascading effects and responding to cascading infrastructure failures once they have occurred.

The major challenge associated with preparedness for cascading failures is that they transcend system, corporate, and political boundaries and necessitate coordination among multiple, disparate experts and authorities. This symposium brought together concerned communities including government and industry …