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Voter Bias In The Associated Press College Football Poll, B. Jay Coleman, Andres Gallo, Paul Mason, Jeffrey W. Steagall
Voter Bias In The Associated Press College Football Poll, B. Jay Coleman, Andres Gallo, Paul Mason, Jeffrey W. Steagall
Management Faculty Publications
We investigate multiple biases in the individual weekly ballots submitted by the 65 voters in the Associated Press college football poll in 2007. Using censored tobit modeling, we find evidence of bias toward teams (1) from the voter’s state, (2) in conferences represented in the voter’s state, (3) in selected Bowl Championship Series conferences, and (4) that played in televised games, particularly on relatively prominent networks. We also find evidence of inordinate bias toward simplistic performance measures – number of losses, and losing in the preceding week – even after controlling for performance using mean team strength derived from 16 …
Identifying The Ncaa Tournament "Dance Card", B. Jay Coleman, Allen K. Lynch
Identifying The Ncaa Tournament "Dance Card", B. Jay Coleman, Allen K. Lynch
Management Faculty Publications
The NCAA Basketball Tournament selection committee annually selects the Division I men's teams that should receive at-large bids to the national championship tournament. Although its deliberations are shrouded in secrecy, the committee is supposed to consider a litany of team-performance statistics, many of which outsiders can reasonably estimate. Using a probit analysis on objective team data from 1994 through 1999, we developed an equation that accurately classified nearly 90 percent of 249 "bubble" teams during that time frame and over 85 percent for the 2000 tournament. Given the NCAA Tournament's nickname of the big dance, the equation is effectively the …