Business Commons^™

Minimizing Game Score Violations In College Football Rankings, B. Jay Coleman

Management Faculty Publications

One metric used to evaluate the myriad ranking systems in college football is retrodictive accuracy. Maximizing retrodictive accuracy is equivalent to minimizing game score violations: the number of times a past game’s winner is ranked behind its loser. None of the roughly 100 current ranking systems achieves this objective. Using a model for minimizing violations that exploits problem characteristics found in college football, I found that all previous ranking systems generated violations that were at least 38 percent higher than the minimum. A minimum-violations criterion commonly would have affected the consensus top five and changed participants in the designated national …