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Articles 1 - 19 of 19
Full-Text Articles in Business
Mortgage Refinancing In Nigeria: Prospects And Challenges, Kama Ukpai, Phebian N. Bewaji, Adigun Mustapha, Olufemi Adetunji Edun, Olubukola Adegbe, Josiah Dassah
Mortgage Refinancing In Nigeria: Prospects And Challenges, Kama Ukpai, Phebian N. Bewaji, Adigun Mustapha, Olufemi Adetunji Edun, Olubukola Adegbe, Josiah Dassah
Bullion
The paper examines the mortgage (re)finance market in Nigeria with a view to identifying its prospects and challenges. The method adopted included a review of jurisdictional experiences on mortgage refinance and thereafter draw on some lessons of experience as the Nigeria case is considered as a country in transition. Further discussions centered on the challenges of financialization of mortgages, mortgage affordability, low awareness of mortgage refinancing, macroprudential risks and moral hazard that confronts mortgage refinance in the country. The paper, further, provides considerations with regard to value-reorientation, institutional, regulatory and legal infrastructures as prerequisites for successful mortgage refinance system.
Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo
Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Moving Average Stratification (MAS) is a new competing and simple algorithm for strata boundary determination in Stratified Sampling. It eliminates arbitrary choice of class interval associated with cumulative square root of frequency method (Dalenius and Hodges Rule (DHR) 1959) and the inherent geometric gaps created within strata by Geometric Stratification (GMS) of Gunning & Horgan (2004). It competes favorably well with DHR and GMS in terms of its precision, simplicity and speeds and therefore recommended for use in strata boundaries determination especially in skewed populations.
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …
Gdp Per Capita In Africa Before The Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion And Long Memory Features, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
Gdp Per Capita In Africa Before The Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion And Long Memory Features, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examined the long memory features of GDP per capita data before the global financial crisis, using a sample of 26 African countries. The study employed fractional integration and tested the stability of the differencing parameter across the sample period for each country. The results indicated that most of the countries’ GDP series were I(1) or higher. Evidence of mean reversion was observed in 10 countries where the disturbances were autocorrelated. There was strong evidence against mean reversion in the remaining 16 countries. The results also indicated that the fractional differencing parameter was stable in 17 countries, while the …
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2014 to determine the 2013 stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises, as well as receiving sectors and origination/destination regions. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises, and analysis of survey returns indicated that the total private foreign liabilities as at end-2013 was N12, 639.27 billion up by 5.08 per cent above its level in 2012. Of this total, 96.7 per cent was in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 0.4 and 2.9 per cent, …
Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya
Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In this paper, we examine the Nigerian stock market sector returns and estimate the bull and bear betas using the Logistic Smooth Threshold Market (LSTM) model. The LSTM model specification follows from the linear Constant Risk Market (CRM) model. We estimate the LSTM model for the overall sampled daily time series from 2001 to 2012 using the conditional nonlinear least squares approach. We also estimate the model for each of the All share Index (ASI) sub-samples taking the time of financial crisis (February 2008) as the break point. The results show the significant correlations of stocks returns in each market …
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper discusses some technical issues in Balance of Payment compilation and analysis. It summarized major components of the BOP statistics, the various account balances as well as the interrelationship between them and other macroeconomic aggregates. It goes further to discuss data related issues in the compilation of Nigeria’s BOP statistics with the aim of providing better insight to future/new compilers, policy and other economic analysts.
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in …
Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti
Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The convergence of global economy makes all countries and all markets sensible to the happenings in other countries (the contagious effect). The 2008 global financial crisis that had its origin from USA was alleged to have had varying degree of impacts on different capital markets in various countries. This paper investigated the impact of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis on the Nigerian capital market. Monthly time series data from January 2006 to December 2009. All Share Index (ASI) was used as proxy for the performance of the Nigerian Capital market, while Credit to the Private Sector (CPS), Price of Crude …
Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad
Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the long run relationship between exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria during 1990Q1 – 2012Q4. We confirm the existence of threshold cointegration between the variables in Nigeria, as against linear cointegration. Consequently, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. Model results indicate that cointegration between the variables occurs only when the equilibrium error exceeds an estimated threshold parameter of 0.52. Having partitioned the TVECM into two regimes based on the obtained threshold, we find that the error correction coefficients of the exchange rate in the two regimes are not …
Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan
Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the dynamics of deposit money banks (DMB) credit and the role of consolidation in credit growth in Nigeria using vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The empirical investigation involved DMBs that have maintained a unique name and some market characteristics before and after the 2004 banking sector consolidation. Using quarterly data from 1999Q1 – 2013Q2 of the selected DMBs, the results show a positive relationship between post-consolidation credit supply growth and the real gross domestic product. The results also show that despite the onesided positive causality from credit supply to economic growth, the total contribution …
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
There is a widespread belief that fiscal decentralization is an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of public expenditures. Decentralization is expected to boost accountability and transparency in the provision of public goods for the well-being of the society. However, countervailing views maintain that little or no impact has been created at the periphery in terms of improving the welfare of the people in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper was to investigate how the decentralized system of expenditure impacted on human resource development in Nigeria. Using ARDL/Bounds Testing approach and data for the period 1980 to 2012, the …
On The Compilation Of Labour Force Statistics For Nigeria, Yemi Kale, Sani I. Doguwa
On The Compilation Of Labour Force Statistics For Nigeria, Yemi Kale, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Computing unemployment rate using a 40 hours a week benchmark implies that any person who has worked for less than 40 hours during the reference week is considered unemployed. This method has become outdated given the present realities of the working environment in Nigeria, particularly, considering the nature of certain activities in the service sector of the economy. This document presents the new definition and revised methodology that is used to re-compute the labour force statistics in Nigeria between 2010 to 2014 Q4. The high rate of underemployment among age “25-34” years showcased the difficulty associated with youth and graduate …
Currency Substitution: Evidence From Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa
Currency Substitution: Evidence From Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the existence, causes and effects of currency substitution in Nigeria by estimating conventional money demand equations based on a partial adjustment and an autoregressive distributed lag models using three definitions of monetary aggregates. The behavior of the foreign currency/Naira deposit ratios have been influenced by devaluation expectations, exchange rate risks and political uncertainties during the Yar’adua-Jonathan presidency. Also, the money demand estimations reveal that short-term foreign interest rates significantly affect the demand for the Naira, suggesting strong evidence of currency substitution and the possibility of importing considerable instability in the economy.
Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment A Leading Indicator Of Currency Crises In Nigeria?, Babatunde S. Omotosho
Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment A Leading Indicator Of Currency Crises In Nigeria?, Babatunde S. Omotosho
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper constructs an early warning system for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to which real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) could be used as a leading indicator of currency crisis is investigated by including its lag in the model. Our findings show that the likelihood of currency crisis increases when the real exchange rate is misaligned; the exchange rate is volatile; oil price declines; debt/GDP ratio increases; and the current …
Queue Modelling For Successful Implementation Of The Cash-Less Policy In Nigeria, Amos N. Dauda, Kenneth N. Korve, Onuche P. Agada
Queue Modelling For Successful Implementation Of The Cash-Less Policy In Nigeria, Amos N. Dauda, Kenneth N. Korve, Onuche P. Agada
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In line with the realization of the vision of the cash-less policy as being fronted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, this paper seeks to solve problems of long waiting time and queue lengths of customers known to be associated with the queuing system of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM), an indispensable piece of machinery for successful implementation of the policy. To this end, the M/G/1 model, a single-channel queuing model with Poisson arrivals, General distribution service time has been applied in modelling the ATM queuing system across three commercial banks: Guarantee Trust Bank (GTB), Diamond bank and Ecobank all …
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
It is considered inapt for central banks to adjust reserve money (quantity of money) and interest rate (price of money) at the same time. Thus, necessitates the need for a choice instrument. Enough evidence abounds in microeconomic theory on the undesirability of manipulating both price and quantity simultaneously in a free market structure. The market, in line with the consensus among economists, either controls the price and allows quantity to be determined by market forces, or influence quantity, leaving prices in the hands of the forces of demand and supply. This paper is, therefore, an attempt to examine the optimal …