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Full-Text Articles in Peace and Conflict Studies
A Vision Of Peace Through U.S. Leadership: President Jimmy Carter's Moral Foreign Policy Vision And The Panama Canal Treaties, Holly L. Welsh De Paula
A Vision Of Peace Through U.S. Leadership: President Jimmy Carter's Moral Foreign Policy Vision And The Panama Canal Treaties, Holly L. Welsh De Paula
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis examines President Jimmy Carter’s foreign policy and his administration’s campaign to promote the ratification of the Panama Canal treaties from 1977 to 1978. I argue that President Carter’s administration developed a coherent foreign policy vision that was inspired by moral convictions and aimed to promote international peace. The fundamental aspects of this vision are reflected in the Panama Canal treaties. During the turbulent Senate debate over the treaties, opposition arguments attacking President Carter’s moral policy encouraged the Carter administration to favor more pragmatic arguments in support of the treaties, which ultimately obscured President Carter’s overarching foreign policy vision. …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …