Social Psychology Commons^™

Insights Into Accuracy Of Social Scientists' Forecasts Of Societal Change, Igor Grossma, Andree Hartanto, Nadyanna M. Majeed, Et Al See Comments For Full List Of Authors

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. Following provision of historical trend data on the domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N=86 teams/359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts based on new data six months later (Tournament 2; N=120 teams/546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social …