International Relations Commons^™

Before The Peace: Ceasefire Durability In Ethnic Civil Wars, Justin Winokur

Government and International Relations Honors Papers

Why do some ceasefires last for days, while others last for months or years? Previous research on ceasefires has not directly considered the question of ceasefire durability, or has focused solely on the dynamics of ceasefire durability in interstate war. In order to address these knowledge gaps, this study explores the question of ceasefire durability in the context of ethnic civil wars. It is hypothesized that ceasefire durability is related to belligerents’ territorial satisfaction, relative power, and actor cohesion. Analyzing two ceasefires from the Bosnian civil war, the study finds that durability is a function of the interaction between territorial …