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Quantifying And Forecasting Vulnerability To Dyadic Conflict In An Integrated Assessment Model: Modeling International Relations Theory, Jonathan David Moyer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The character of state interaction matters. This dissertation quantifies this interaction from 1960-2001 and then forecasts it from 2010-2050. I contribute to the field of International Relations by improving traditional measures of Realism and Liberalism, quantifying new perspectives sensitive to cultural interaction, and statistically evaluating these indices relative to the occurrence of conflict. It is the first step in an academic research agenda that desires to expand the scope of possibility regarding the modeling of International Relations theory for the purpose of theory evaluation and policy analysis.

This dissertation spans two fields of study that do not typically overlap: International …