Geography Commons^™

Keynote Address: Climate Change: From Global To New York Scale, Christopher D. Thorncroft

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This talk is concerned with the science and impacts of climate change from global to New York scales. It will provide an assessment of how the climate has changed over the past Century based on a purely observational perspective. The scientific basis for anthroprogenic climate change will be explained and discussed including a description of the “greenhouse effect” and why it is important for life on this planet. We will briefly discuss global and local consequences of a warmer climate and what we need to be prepared for going forward in the coming decades.

Studying Human Behavior For Species Conservation, Hilary Byerly, Brendan Fisher

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Urban Multi-Scale Environmental Predictor - An Extensive Tool For Climate Services In Urban Areas, Fredrik Lindberg, Sue Grimmond, Andrew Gabey, Bei Huang, Christoph W. Kent, Ting Sun, Natalie E. Theeuwes, Leena Järvi, Helen Ward, Izzy Capel-Timms, Yy Chang, Per Jonsson, Niklas Krave, Dongwei Liu, D Meyer, K Frans G. Olofson, Jian-Guo Tan, Dag Wästberg, Lingbo Xue, Zhe Zhang

Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial (FOSS4G) Conference Proceedings

The city based climate service tool UMEP (Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor) is a coupled modelling system that combines models essential for urban climate processes and is developed as an extensive QGIS plugin. An application is presented to illustrate its potential, specifically of the identification of heat waves and cold waves in cities. The tool has broad utility for applications related to outdoor thermal comfort, urban energy consumption, climate change mitigation etc. It includes tools to: enable users to input atmospheric and surface data from multiple sources, prepare meteorological data for use in urban areas, undertake simulations and consider scenarios, and …

Exploring The Relationship Between Climate And Forest Conditions In Forest Classee De La Mondah (Gabon) Using Remote Sensing Data, Mariano Mboumba

Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial (FOSS4G) Conference Proceedings

This study aims to examine the relationship between temperature and precipitation as climatic factors and the vegetation characteristics in Forêt Classée de la Mondah (Gabon). A pixel based spatial analysis procedure with QGIS was used to extract vegetation characteristics from MODIS on Terra, NDVI band, data from February 2000 to December 2015, while temperature and precipitation were monitored from January 1980 to December 2015 to highlight climate fluctuations in the study area. Two regression analyses were conducted : one between temperature and NDVI and the other one between precipitation and NDVI. Results showed that temperature and precipitation did not vary …

Ecological Network Metrics: Opportunities For Synthesis, Matthew K. Lau, Stuart R. Borrett, Benjamin Baiser, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Aaron M. Ellison

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Network ecology provides a systems basis for approaching ecological questions, such as factors that influence biological diversity, the role of particular species or particular traits in structuring ecosystems, and long-term ecological dynamics (e.g., stability). Whereas the introduction of network theory has enabled ecologists to quantify not only the degree, but also the architecture of ecological complexity, these advances have come at the cost of introducing new challenges, including new theoretical concepts and metrics, and increased data complexity and computational intensity. Synthesizing recent developments in the network ecology literature, we point to several potential solutions to these issues: integrating network metrics …

Mountain Forests And Sustainable Development: The Potential For Achieving The United Nations' 2030 Agenda, Georg Gratzer, William S. Keeton

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

The world is facing numerous and severe environmental, social, and economic challenges. To address these, in September 2015 the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted the resolution Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The United Nations' 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and their 169 targets are ambitious, broadly encompassing, and indivisible. They are intended to guide nations and communities toward attaining healthy and peaceful livelihoods free of poverty and hunger. Collectively the goals envision sound and safe environments, where global threats like climate change are successfully combated through both mitigation and adaptation. Agenda 2030 envisages sustainable …

A Landscape Of Thermal Inequity: Social Vulnerability To Urban Heat In U.S. Cities, Bruce Coffyn Mitchell

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This dissertation examines distributional inequity of exposure to urban heat by socially disadvantaged groups and minorities in the context of climate justice. Using Cutter’s hazards-of-place model, variables indicative of social vulnerability and biophysical vulnerability are statistically tested for their associations. Biophysical vulnerability is conceptualized utilizing a urban heat risk index calculated from summer 2010 LANDSAT imagery to measure land surface temperature , structural density through the normalized difference built-up index, and vegetation abundance …

Crowdsourced Delphis: Designing Solutions To Complex Environmental Problems With Broad Stakeholder Participation, Sarah Coleman, Stephanie Hurley, Christopher Koliba, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

There is a well-established need for increased stakeholder participation in the generation of adaptive management approaches and specific solutions to complex environmental problems. However, integrating participant feedback into current science, research, and decision-making processes is challenging. This paper presents a novel approach that marries a rigorous Delphi method, borrowed from policy and organizational sciences, with contemporary “crowdsourcing” to address the complex problems of water pollution exacerbated by climate change in the Lake Champlain Basin. In an online Delphi forum that occurred over a six-week period during the Spring of 2014, fifty-three participants proposed and commented on adaptive solutions to address …

Potential Impacts Of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise And Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge In Western Pasco County, Florida, Kittiya Harris

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Sea levels have risen approximately 20 cm since the beginning of the 20th century and more than 3 cm in the past 20 years, suggesting that global sea level rise is accelerating. As sea levels continue to rise and storms become more intense, coastal property and populations become more susceptible to damage. Florida is especially vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge (HSS) and the onset of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) due to its extensive coastline and high population density along the coast. The main purpose of this research is to assess the potential economic impacts of ASLR and HSS for two …

Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Tornadoes present a significant threat to life and property. The National Weather Service watch and warning system warns the public of tornadoes. If these warnings are not heeded by the public, the potential fatalities and destruction of property cannot be minimized. Thus, to prevent further loss of life and property, it is necessary to understand how the public understands the watch and warning system, as well as how they react. This paper aims to understand the correlation between understanding of watches and warnings and the occurrence of tornadoes, as well as how understanding varies spatially. Survey data were collected from …

Evaluation Of A Proposal For Reliable Low-Cost Grid Power With 100% Wind, Water, And Solar, Christopher T.M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, Paul D.H. Hines, Paulina Jaramillo, Daniel M. Kammen, Jane C.S. Long, M. Granger Morgan, Adam Reed, Varun Sivaram, James Sweeney, George R. Tynan, David G. Victor, John P. Weyant, Jay F. Whitacre

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

A number of analyses, meta-Analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of …

Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Louisiana has lost approximately 1,880 square miles of land over the past eighty years. Projections suggest that in a future without action, the next fifty years could result in the loss of 1,750 additional square miles of land area. As land loss continues, a large portion of the natural and man-made capital stocks of coastal Louisiana will be at greater risk of damage, either from land loss or from the associated increase in storm damage. We estimate the replacement cost of capital stock directly at risk from land loss ranges from approximately $2.1 billion to $3.5 billion with economic activity …

Characterizing Landscape-Scale Erosion Using 10be In Detrital Fluvial Sediment: Slope-Based Sampling Strategy Detects The Effect Of Widespread Dams, Lucas J. Reusser, Paul R. Bierman, Donna M. Rizzo, Eric W. Portenga, Dylan H. Rood

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Concentrations of in situ 10Be measured in detrital fluvial sediment are frequently used to estimate long-term erosion rates of drainage basins. In many regions, basin-averaged erosion rates are positively correlated with basin average slope. The slope dependence of erosion allows model-based erosion rate estimation for unsampled basins and basins where human disturbance may have biased cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in sediment. Using samples collected from southeastern North America, we demonstrate an approach that explicitly considers the relationship between average basin slope and erosion rate. Because dams and reservoirs are ubiquitous on larger channels in the field area, we selected 36 undammed …

The Role Of Sulfur Dioxide In Stratospheric Aerosol Formation Evaluated By Using In Situ Measurements In The Tropical Lower Stratosphere, A. W. Rollins, T. D. Thornberry, L. A. Watts, P. Yu, K. H. Rosenlof, M. Mills, E. Baumann, F. R. Giorgetta, T. V. Bui, M. Höpfner, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Stratospheric aerosols (SAs) are a variable component of the Earth's albedo that may be intentionally enhanced in the future to offset greenhouse gases (geoengineering). The role of tropospheric-sourced sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in maintaining background SAs has been debated for decades without in situ measurements of SO₂ at the tropical tropopause to inform this issue. Here we clarify the role of SO₂ in maintaining SAs by using new in situ SO₂ measurements to evaluate climate models and satellite retrievals. We then use the observed tropical tropopause SO₂ mixing ratios to estimate the global flux of …

Grand Challenges In Understanding The Interplay Of Climate And Land Changes, Shuguang Liu, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Lena R. Boysen, James D. Ford, Andrew Fox, Kevin Gallo, Jerry Hatfield, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Thomas G. Huntington, Zhihua Liu, Thomas R. Loveland, Richard J. Norby, Terry Sohl, Allison L. Steiner, Wenping Yuan, Zhao Zhang, Shuqing Zhao

GSCE Faculty Publications

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, …

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk By Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence, Mert Korkali, Jason G. Veneman, Brian F. Tivnan, James P. Bagrow, Paul D.H. Hines

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Increased interconnection between critical infrastructure networks, such as electric power and communications systems, has important implications for infrastructure reliability and security. Others have shown that increased coupling between networks that are vulnerable to internetwork cascading failures can increase vulnerability. However, the mechanisms of cascading in these models differ from those in real systems and such models disregard new functions enabled by coupling, such as intelligent control during a cascade. This paper compares the robustness of simple topological network models to models that more accurately reflect the dynamics of cascading in a particular case of coupled infrastructures. First, we compare a …

How Lessons From A Past Disaster Can Influence Resilience And Climate Adaptation In Broward County, Florida, Hannah Rose Torres

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the face of future uncertainties, many places are struggling with decisions about how to prepare for and adapt to climate change. The purpose of this research is to shed light on the concept of resilience, and uncover lessons for resilience-building exposed by a past disaster, Hurricane Wilma.

The dissertation begins with an introduction (Chapter 1) detailing the research problem, key terms and overall research design. The study was conducted in three distinct phases. The first phase (Chapter 2), explored the concept of resilience to understand how it was defined in three South Florida communities. Content analyses of city and …

Transitions In Climate And Energy Discourse Between Hurricanes Katrina And Sandy, Emily M. Cody, Jennie C. Stephens, James P. Bagrow, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Christopher M. Danforth

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public discourse. Media coverage of extreme weather events simultaneously shapes and reflects public discourse on climate issues. Here, we analyze climate and energy newspaper coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina …

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Agriculture Without Compromising Food Security?, Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, Jean François Soussana, Antoine Levesque, Hugo Valin, Eva Wollenberg, Ulrich Kleinwechter, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Tomoko Hasegawa, Florian Kraxner, Michael Obersteiner

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5◦C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways …

The Database Of The Predicts (Projecting Responses Of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) Project, Lawrence N. Hudson, Tim Newbold, Sara Contu, Samantha L.L. Hill, Igor Lysenko, Adriana De Palma, Helen R.P. Phillips, Tamera I. Alhusseini, Felicity E. Bedford, Dominic J. Bennett, Hollie Booth, Victoria J. Burton, Charlotte W.T. Chng, Argyrios Choimes, David L.P. Correia, Julie Day, Susy Echeverría-Londoño, Susan R. Emerson, Di Gao, Morgan Garon, Michelle L.K. Harrison, Daniel J. Ingram, Martin Jung, Victoria Kemp, Lucinda Kirkpatrick, Callum D. Martin, Yuan Pan, Gwilym D. Pask-Hale, Edwin L. Pynegar, Alexandra N. Robinson, Katia Sanchez-Ortiz

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in …

Forest Carbon Projects In The Ukrainian Carpathians: An Assessment Of Potential Community Impacts And Benefits, Amanda R. Egan, William S. Keeton, Cecilia M. Danks, Ihor Soloviy, Asim Zia

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) is a frequently promoted climate change mitigation strategy. As forest carbon projects proceed, we are learning how they affect local sovereignty and resource access, particularly in developing economies. Central and Eastern Europe’s temperate forests offer potential for projects, yet little is known about how the sociopolitical context of these transitional economies may influence project success. In this article, we enhance understanding of potential community impacts and explore opportunities for fair benefit distribution in Ukraine’s Carpathian Mountain region. Through a thematic qualitative and interpretive analysis of interviews and observational data, we: (1) describe what …

Social-Ecological Enabling Conditions For Payments For Ecosystem Services, Heidi R. Huber-Stearns, Drew E. Bennett, Stephen Posner, Ryan C. Richards, Jenn Hoyle Fair, Stella J.M. Cousins, Chelsie L. Romulo

Peer-Reviewed Studies

The concept of “enabling conditions” centers on conditions that facilitate approaches to addressing social and ecological challenges. Although multiple fields have independently addressed the concept of enabling conditions, the literature lacks a shared understanding or integration of concepts. We propose a more synthesized understanding of enabling conditions beyond disciplinary boundaries by focusing on the enabling conditions that influence the implementation of a range of environmental policies termed payments for ecosystem services (PES). Through an analysis of key literature from different disciplinary perspectives, we examined how researchers and practitioners refer to and identify enabling conditions within the context of PES. Through …

Burundi : Water Scarcity, Isabel Salas

Global Public Health

Burundi is located near the African great lakes region of East Africa. This country is one of the poorest and hungriest countries throughout the world because of this they are facing multiple problems with communicable disease. These families are seeing a reduction in the amount of water available to them and based on this they are receiving water from external sources such as wells and lakes. Most of the water throughout Burundi is contaminated with Phytoplankton which increase cholera outbreaks in this area. It has also been shown that uranium impacts the water throughout the wells and lakes. Both of …

Climate Change Adaptation For Southern California Groundwater Managers: A Case Study Of The Six Basins Aquifer, Frank Lyles

Pomona Senior Theses

Groundwater has been very important to the economic development of Southern California, and will continue to be a crucial resource in the 21st century. However, Climate Change threatens to disrupt many of the physical and economic processes that control the flow of water in and out of aquifers. One groundwater manager, the Six Basins Watermaster in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino Counties, has developed a long-term planning document called the Strategic Plan that mostly fails to address the implications of Climate Change, especially for local water supplies. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of the Six Basin Watermaster’s …

State Dependency Of The Forest-Tundra-Short Wave Feedback : Comparing The Mid-Pliocene And Pre-Industrial Eras Using A Newly-Developed Vegetation Model, Pablo Paiewonsky

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The forest-tundra-short wave feedback is the dominant short wave (SW) vegetation feedback at mid-to-high northern latitudes and is an important feedback in Earth’s climate system, especially due to its potential role in modulating glacial cycles. Little research has been done on how the strength of this feedback might vary with the background climate state. It is hypothesized that the feedback has generally strengthened over the last four million years. The feedback mechanism is hypothesized to be weaker under warm Northern Hemispheric conditions when tundra is primarily confined to the high Arctic than under cooler conditions in which the forest-tundra boundary …