Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Shortfalls Of Vulnerability Indexes For Public Health Decision-Making In The Face Of Emergent Crises: The Case Of Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Virginia, Lydia Cleveland Sa, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Equitable and effective vaccine uptake is a key issue in addressing COVID-19. To achieve this, we must comprehensively characterize the context-specific socio-behavioral and structural determinants of vaccine uptake. However, to quickly focus public health interventions, state agencies and planners often rely on already existing indexes of "vulnerability." Many such "vulnerability indexes" exist and become benchmarks for targeting interventions in wide ranging scenarios, but they vary considerably in the factors and themes that they cover. Some are even uncritical of the use of the word "vulnerable," which should take on different meanings in different contexts. The objective of this study is …

Understanding And Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting From Extreme Heat Exposure Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies In Norfolk, Va Using Agent-Based Modeling, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O'Brien, Erik Jensen, Brandon Feldhaus, Russell Moore, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. We develop a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which different demographics of residents in Norfolk, VA are equitably shaded …

Short-Range Forecasting Of Covid-19 During Early Onset At County, Health District, And State Geographic Levels Using Seven Methods: Comparative Forecasting Study, Christopher Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

BACKGROUND:

Forecasting methods rely on trends and averages of prior observations to forecast COVID-19 case counts. COVID-19 forecasts have received much media attention, and numerous platforms have been created to inform the public. However, forecasting effectiveness varies by geographic scope and is affected by changing assumptions in behaviors and preventative measures in response to the pandemic. Due to time requirements for developing a COVID-19 vaccine, evidence is needed to inform short-term forecasting method selection at county, health district, and state levels.

OBJECTIVE:

COVID-19 forecasts keep the public informed and contribute to public policy. As such, proper understanding of forecasting purposes …

You Are What You Tweet: Connecting The Geographic Variation In America's Obesity Rate To Twitter Content, Ross J. Gore, Saikou Diallo, Jose Padilla

VMASC Publications

We conduct a detailed investigation of the relationship among the obesity rate of urban areas and expressions of happiness, diet and physical activity on social media. We do so by analyzing a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 200 million words generated over the course of 2012 and 2013 on the social network service Twitter. Among many results, we show that areas with lower obesity rates: (1) have happier tweets and frequently discuss (2) food, particularly fruits and vegetables, and (3) physical activities of any intensity. Additionally, we provide evidence that each of these results offer different and unique insight …

Analyzing The Effects Of Policy Options To Mitigate The Effect Of Sea Level Rise On The Public Health And Medically Fragile Population: A System Dynamics Approach, Rafael Diaz, Joshua Behr, Anna Jeng, Hua Liu, Franceso Longo

VMASC Publications

A critical question related to climate change concerns to how rising sea level will affect underserved populations and medically fragile population in coastal zones and floodplains. As sea levels rise, coastal waters will regain near-tidal areas and co-mingle with human-made pollutants, resulting from decades of industrial and commercial activity. This poses potential threat and risks to public health and the environment. It is critical that decision makers will initiate a process of parsing resources to the mitigation and management of these issues. The purpose of this research is to model the inherent dynamics of this process and understand how near-term …