Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
-
- Econometrics (24)
- Asian Studies (14)
- International and Area Studies (14)
- Behavioral Economics (11)
- Economic Theory (7)
-
- International Economics (7)
- Business (6)
- Finance (6)
- Health Economics (6)
- Medicine and Health Sciences (6)
- Public Health (5)
- Regional Economics (5)
- Growth and Development (3)
- Political Economy (3)
- Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration (3)
- Public Economics (3)
- Industrial Organization (2)
- Labor Economics (2)
- Real Estate (2)
- Transportation (2)
- Chemicals and Drugs (1)
- Education (1)
- Finance and Financial Management (1)
- Gerontology (1)
- Income Distribution (1)
- Macroeconomics (1)
- Operations and Supply Chain Management (1)
- Organization Development (1)
- Keyword
-
- COVID-19 (5)
- China (3)
- Economic growth (3)
- Financial development (3)
- High-frequency data (3)
-
- Pandemic (3)
- Series estimation (3)
- Banking system (2)
- Bootstrap (2)
- Capital markets (2)
- Conditional moment inequality (2)
- Decision theory (2)
- Fractional Gaussian noise (2)
- Global value chain (2)
- Hypothesis testing (2)
- Jump (2)
- Latent variable models (2)
- Long memory (2)
- Machine learning (2)
- Parliamentary speeches (2)
- Party line (2)
- Posterior simulation (2)
- Quantitative Welfare Analysis (2)
- Regression discontinuity (2)
- Robust mechanism design (2)
- Semimartingale (2)
- Singapore (2)
- Textual analysis (2)
- Uniform inference (2)
- Volatility (2)
Articles 1 - 30 of 67
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide novel evidence on how COVID-19 affected overall life satisfaction using a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. We study how the subjective well-being of individuals evolves over the course of 18 months including the outbreak of the pandemic, the implementation of the lockdown and the spike of cases due to the delta variant in a country where COVID-19 is controlled in a sustained manner. Using an event-study design framework, we find large declines in overall life satisfaction in the lead-up to and following the lockdown. Fifteen months after the outbreak of the pandemic, and 13 months …
Identifying Knowledge Spillovers From Universities: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Urban China, Li Jing, Shimeng Liu, Yifan Wu
Identifying Knowledge Spillovers From Universities: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Urban China, Li Jing, Shimeng Liu, Yifan Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the impact of universities on local innovation activity by exploiting a unique university expansion policy in China as a quasi-experiment. We take a geographic approach, empowered by geocoded data on patents and new products at the address level, to identify knowledge spillovers as an important channel. We obtain three main findings. First, university expansion significantly increases universities’ own innovation capacity, which results in a dramatic boom of local industry patents. Second, the impact of university expansion on local innovation activities attenuates sharply within 2 kilometers of the universities. Third, university expansion boosts nearby firms’ new products and …
Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Research Collection School Of Economics
The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a ‘mega-regional’ free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can potentially have large impacts on CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we analyse how intensively the CPTPP members participate in the global value chain (GVC), whether they have stronger linkages with members than with non-members, the position of the members in the global and regional network, and whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other. We develop formulas of GVC position, and importance …
Associations Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Older Individuals' Healthcare Utilization And Self-Reported Health Status: A Longitudinal Analysis From Singapore, Sangnam Ahn, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Associations Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Older Individuals' Healthcare Utilization And Self-Reported Health Status: A Longitudinal Analysis From Singapore, Sangnam Ahn, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
Background: The COVID–19 pandemic has challenged the capacity of healthcare systems around the world and can potentially compromise healthcare utilization and health outcomes among non-COVID–19 patients. Objectives: To examine the associations of the COVID-19 pandemic with healthcare utilization, out-of-pocket medical costs, and perceived health among middle-aged and older individuals in Singapore. Method: Utilizing data collected from a monthly panel survey, a difference-in-differences approach was used to characterize monthly changes of healthcare use and spending and estimate the probability of being diagnosed with a chronic condition and self-reported health status before and during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Subjects: Data were …
A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou
A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a nonparametric test for general functional inequalities that include conditional moment inequalities as a special case. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a large class of distributions for observed data, importantly allowing for general forms of time series dependence. New results on uniform growing dimensional Gaussian coupling for general mixingale processes are developed for this purpose, which readily accommodate most applications in economics and finance. The proposed method is applied in a portfolio evaluation context to test for “all-weather” portfolios with uniformly superior conditional Sharpe ratio functions.
Maskin Meets Abreu And Matsushima, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Siyang Xiong
Maskin Meets Abreu And Matsushima, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Siyang Xiong
Research Collection School Of Economics
The theory of full implementation has been criticized for using integer/modulo games, which admit no equilibrium (Jackson (1992)). To address the critique, we revisit the classical Nash implementation problem due to Maskin (1977, 1999) but allow for the use of lotteries and monetary transfers as in Abreu and Matsushima (1992, 1994). We unify the two well-established but somewhat orthogonal approaches in full implementation theory. We show that Maskin monotonicity is a necessary and sufficient condition for (exact) mixed-strategy Nash implementation by a finite mechanism. In contrast to previous papers, our approach possesses the following features: finite mechanisms (with no integer …
Using Satellite-Observed Geospatial Inundation Data To Identify The Impacts Of Flood On Firm-Level Performances: The Case Of China During 2000–2009, Pao-Li Chang, Fan Zheng
Using Satellite-Observed Geospatial Inundation Data To Identify The Impacts Of Flood On Firm-Level Performances: The Case Of China During 2000–2009, Pao-Li Chang, Fan Zheng
Research Collection School Of Economics
Among the first in the literature, this paper combines high-resolution satelliteobserved inundation maps with geocoded firm-level data to identify the flood exposure at the firm level. We apply the methodology to study the impact of floods on microlevel firm performances in China for the period 2000–2009. Being hit by a flood is associated with an annual loss of output and productivity of around 6% and 5%, respectively, which persists in the long run. The effects are heterogeneous across types of firms and locations of the floods. Firms that are tangible-asset intensive are more negatively affected by the flood events. Meanwhile, …
Finite Sample Comparison Of Alternative Estimators For Fractional Gaussian Noise, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu, Chen Zhang
Finite Sample Comparison Of Alternative Estimators For Fractional Gaussian Noise, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu, Chen Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) process is a continuous-time Gaussian process with its increment being the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). It has enjoyed widespread empirical applications across many fields, from science to economics and finance. The dynamics of fBm and fGn are governed by a fractional parameter H ∈ (0, 1). This paper first derives an analytical expression for the spectral density of fGn and investigates the accuracy of various approximation methods for the spectral density. Next, we conduct an extensive Monte Carlo study comparing the finite sample performance and computational cost of alternative estimation methods for H under the …
Consumption Responses To Income Shocks Through Lottery Winning (With) R&R At Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, Kanghyock Koh, Kim
Consumption Responses To Income Shocks Through Lottery Winning (With) R&R At Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, Kanghyock Koh, Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the effects of lottery winning on consumption spending using newly available household survey data in Singapore. We find strong consumption responses to a transitory income shock via lottery wins. Lottery winners spend about half of their prizes within 12 months of winning. We show that consumption responses are stronger among households with more binding liquidity constraints and less risk aversion, which is consistent with the standard life-cycle model. The strong consumption response suggests that fiscal stimulus policies or other public transfer programs could be an effective means of boosting consumption spending of the economy in the short run.
Made In Singapore, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Made In Singapore, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we characterize the position of Singapore in global value chains and identify Singapore’s key upstream and downstream trade partners. We trace how the position of Singapore in global value chains has changed in the past two decades: whether it has moved upstream or downstream, how involved it is in global value chains, how its trend compares with the other major Asian exporters (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), and which key sectors of Singapore play a major role in these global trade networks.
Good Names Beget Favors: The Impact Of Country Image On Trade Flows And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin
Good Names Beget Favors: The Impact Of Country Image On Trade Flows And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper estimates the effects of time-varying consumer preference bias on trade flows and welfare. We use a unique data set from the BBC World Service Poll, which surveys (annually during 2005–2017 with some gaps) the populations of a wide array of countries on their views of whether an evaluated country is having a mainly positive or negative influence in the world. We identify the effects on consumer preference parameters due to shifts in these country image perceptions and quantify their general equilibrium effects on bilateral exports and welfare (each time for an evaluated exporting country, holding the exporting country’s …
Disentangling The Effects Of Gatt/Wto On Variable And Fixed Trade Costs: Trade Status, Trade Margins, And Export Sales Distribution, Pao-Li Chang, Renjing Chen, Wei Jin
Disentangling The Effects Of Gatt/Wto On Variable And Fixed Trade Costs: Trade Status, Trade Margins, And Export Sales Distribution, Pao-Li Chang, Renjing Chen, Wei Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we develop an estimation procedure to identify the partial (direct) effects of the GATT/WTO membership on the variable and the fixed trade cost, re-spectively. This extends the techniques of Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) on the structural relationship of multilateral resistance terms and of Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) on the structural modelling of trade incidence. We then develop a general equilibrium framework (that allows the presence of zero trade) to simulate the impact of variable, fixed, and total trade cost changes on the firm-level trade structure (including bilateral export productivity cutoff, weighted/unweighted extensive margin of export, …
Low-Rank Panel Quantile Regression: Estimation And Inference, Yiren Wang, Yichong Zhang, Yichong Zhang
Low-Rank Panel Quantile Regression: Estimation And Inference, Yiren Wang, Yichong Zhang, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a class of low-rank panel quantile regression models which allow for unobserved slope heterogeneity over both individuals and time. We estimate the heterogeneous intercept and slope matrices via nuclear norm regularization followed by sample splitting, row- and column-wise quantile regressions and debiasing. We show that the estimators of the factors and factor loadings associated with the intercept and slope matrices are asymptotically normally distributed. In addition, we develop two specification tests: one for the null hypothesis that the slope coefficient is a constant over time and/or individuals under the case that true rank of slope …
Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …
On The Optimal Forecast With The Fractional Brownian Motion, Xiaohu Wang, Chen Zhang, Jun Yu
On The Optimal Forecast With The Fractional Brownian Motion, Xiaohu Wang, Chen Zhang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the performance of alternative forecasting formulae with the fractional Brownian motion based on a discrete and finite sample. One formula gives the optimal forecast when a continuous record over the infinite past is available. Another formula gives the optimal forecast when a continuous record over the finite past is available. Alternative discretiza-tion schemes are proposed to approximate these formulae. These alternative discretization schemes are then compared with the conditional expectation of the target variable on the vector of the discrete and finite sample. It is shown that the conditional expectation delivers more accurate forecasts than the discretization-based …
Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a distribution asymptotically, offering an asymptotically pivotal test. Fourth, it only requires inverting the posterior covariance for parameters of interest. Fifth and perhaps most importantly, when a random sample from the posterior distribution (such as MCMC output) is available, …
Bayesian Methods In Economics And Finance: Editor's Introduction, Jun Yu
Bayesian Methods In Economics And Finance: Editor's Introduction, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Modern days, Bayesian methods have gained prominence in theoretical work and applications in economics and finance due to the rapid development of computational technologies and their ability to learn. The special issue intends to examine central aspects in Bayesian analysis and applications, including prior choices, model selection with massive data and latent variables, hypothesis testing, Bayesian learning. In total, this special issue contains ten papers, all subject to the Journal of Econometrics (JOE)’s normal refereeing process. Most of these papers came from a conference held at the ESSEC Singapore campus on 10 December 2018.
Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji
Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show that securities issued by a distressed firm, often through exchange offers, providethe most efficient resolution of financial restructuring. Information asymmetry between thefirm-bank coalition and small bondholders gives rise to other forms of distress resolutionsuch as refinancing, public workout, and the inefficiency of liquidation. We find that politicallobbying by the firm-bank amplifies these inefficiencies and inhibits the development of privatemarket for distressed securities. Cross-country evidence is consistent with this and indicatesthat improved creditor rights, and information facilitating credit bureaus interact in reducingthe likelihood of inefficient distress resolution.
The Embodiment Controversy: On The Policy Implications Of Vintage Capital Models, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun
The Embodiment Controversy: On The Policy Implications Of Vintage Capital Models, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
We explore the long-run impact of policy on the level of economic activity through changes in the vintage distribution of capital, in a model where different vintages coexist in production. Because firms can choose the vintage of capital in which they invest, investment subsidies do not affect the vintage structure of capital. In contrast, vintage-specific taxes or subsidies that target the newest vintages of capital can significantly affect output and welfare in the long run, mainly downward. Transition dynamics are rapid, so that steady-state comparisons give an accurate picture of the welfare impact of vintage tax wedges.
The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff Of Covid-19 Lockdown Policies, Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko
The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff Of Covid-19 Lockdown Policies, Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko
Research Collection School Of Economics
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.
Intra-Firm Hierarchies And Gender Gaps, Nicolo Dalvit, Aseem Patel, Joanne Tan
Intra-Firm Hierarchies And Gender Gaps, Nicolo Dalvit, Aseem Patel, Joanne Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study how changes in female representation at the top of a firm’s organisation affect gender-specific outcomes across hierarchies within firms. We start by developing a theoretical model of a hierarchical firm, where gender representation in top organisational layers can affect gender-specific hiring and promotion probabilities at lower layers. We then exploit a recent French reform that imposed gender representation quotas in the boards of directors and test the model’s predictions in the data. Our empirical results show that the reform was successful in reducing gender wage and representation gaps at the upper layers of the firm, but not at …
The Exchange Rate System Reform In China: Some Important Results, Paul S. L. Yip, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong
The Exchange Rate System Reform In China: Some Important Results, Paul S. L. Yip, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide a review and empirical study on the exchange rate system reform in China. In the initial stage of the reform the Chinese central bank PBoC's implicit promise of gradual appreciation helped to contain the appreciation rate and volatility of the renminbi. Subsequently, under US pressure for faster appreciation and hence the PBoC's moderate violation of the implicit promise, there was a significant rise in the appreciation rate and the volatility of the renminbi. The moderate violation deteriorated further, forming a vicious cycle of speculative flows and faster exchange rate changes. Upon the onset of the global financial crisis …
Strategic Parent Meets Detached Child? Parental Intended Bequest Division And Support From Children, Christine Ho
Strategic Parent Meets Detached Child? Parental Intended Bequest Division And Support From Children, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
Whereas the literature has found that elderly parents may use bequests to reward children who provide them with time support, there is limited evidence on whether younger less needy parents may base their intended bequest division on alternative forms of support from children. Using a large-scale dataset of middle-aged and older Singaporeans, I find that parents intend to leave larger bequest shares to coresident children and to children who provide greater material support. Parents also intend to bequeath more to children in whom they confide frequently while they bequeath more to children in whom they rarely confide when the latter …
Labor Market Implications Of Taiwan’S Accession To The Wto: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xin Yi
Labor Market Implications Of Taiwan’S Accession To The Wto: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xin Yi
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the effects of Taiwan’s accession to the WTO in 2002 on the labor market dynamics in Taiwan during 1995–2020. Based on the dynamic hat algebra of Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019), we modify the framework to allow for differently skilled labor inputs (low, middle, high) and sector-skill dynamic choice by workers. We map the model to the labor-market transition data in Taiwan (based on quasi-longitudinal household surveys), the country-sector-specific skill shares in production, and the bi-lateral trade flows and import tariffs, for 61 economies and 22 sectors for the period 1995–2007. We study the counterfactual dynamics if the …
Attenuation Of Agglomeration Economies: Evidence From The Universe Of Chinese Manufacturing Firms, Li Jing, Liyao Li, Shimeng Liu
Attenuation Of Agglomeration Economies: Evidence From The Universe Of Chinese Manufacturing Firms, Li Jing, Liyao Li, Shimeng Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper quantifies industry-specific spatial attenuation of agglomeration economies by taking advantage of unique geocoded administrative data on the universe of Chinese manufacturing firms. The estimates of industry-level attenuation speed further allow us to systematically assess the goodness of fit of various spatial decay functional forms and to evaluate the micro-foundations that govern the decay patterns across industries. We obtain three main findings. First, agglomeration spillovers attenuate by about 90 percent on average from 0-1 km to 1-5 km in China, with large heterogeneity in the extent of attenuation ranging from 73 percent to 116 percent across industries. Second, the …
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper analyzed the association between bank and capital markets financial development with income per capita in three regions; ASEAN-5 economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia), Asia-5 (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea and India) and OECD-7 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK and US) from 2000 to 2017 using panel data regressions. A ley lesson ASEAN-5 can learn from Asia-5 and OECD-7 experience is that bank size does matter despite digital disruptions to their banking system; yet large financial structure that favors banks is negatively associated with Asia-5, and importantly, efficient banking system (not bank size alone) is …
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper analyzed the association between bank and capital markets financial development with income per capita in three regions; ASEAN-5 economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia), Asia-5 (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and India), and OECD-7 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK, and US) from 2000 to 2017 using panel data regressions. A key lesson ASEAN-5 can learn from Asia-5 and OECD-7 experience is that bank size does matter despite digital disruptions to their banking system; yet large financial structure that favors banks is negatively associated with Asia-5, and importantly, efficient banking system (not bank size alone) is …
Start-Up Firms And Corporate Culture: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee
Start-Up Firms And Corporate Culture: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
I document advertised corporate culture among start-up firms from an online job board. Two corporate-culture types emerge, one that concerns the well-being of em- ployees (worker-centered culture) and another that emphasizes other values, such as cus- tomers, firms, and markets (firm-centered culture). The worker-centered culture attracts 20% more applications than the other culture type. Firms advertising the worker-centered culture exploit worker preference by paying 5% lower salaries than measurably similar jobs. Using a standard model of business creation, I show financially constrained start- ups are incentivized to advocate popular culture, even though doing so is not optimal without financial constraints.
A Consistent Specification Test For Dynamic Quantile Models, Peter Horvath, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Andrew J. Patton
A Consistent Specification Test For Dynamic Quantile Models, Peter Horvath, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Andrew J. Patton
Research Collection School Of Economics
Correct specification of a conditional quantile model implies that a particular conditional moment is equal to zero. We nonparametrically estimate the conditional moment function via series regression and test whether it is identically zero using uniform functional inference. Our approach is theoretically justified via a strong Gaussian approximation for statistics of growing dimensions in a general time series setting. We propose a novel bootstrap method in this nonstandard context and show that it significantly outperforms the benchmark asymptotic approximation in finite samples, especially for tail quantiles such as Value-at-Risk (VaR). We use the proposed new test to study the VaR …
Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Inference, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Inference, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper explores weak identification issues arising in commonly used models of economic and financial time series. Two highly popular configurations are shown to be asymptotically observationally equivalent: one with long memory and weak autoregressive dynamics, the other with antipersistent shocks and a near-unit autoregressive root. We develop a data-driven semiparametric and identification-robust approach to inference that reveals such ambiguities and documents the prevalence of weak identification in many realized volatility and trading volume series. The identification-robust empirical evidence generally favors long memory dynamics in volatility and volume, a conclusion that is corroborated using social-media news flow data.