Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: December 19, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.32% during November of 2018. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, portends moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the first half of 2019. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell in Nebraska during November, while business expectations remained strong. Respondents to the November Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months.

Six Key Components Of A Farm Or Ranch Business Plan, Jay Parsons

Cornhusker Economics

Developing a good farm or ranch business plan can have many benefits. In an earlier Cornhusker Economics article, I outlined six good reasons to develop a business plan (Parsons 2015). It helps to get your business organized and moving in the right direction. It lets your lender know you have a plan to succeed, which opens up your access to capital. It also helps you organize your thoughts, clarifying the goals and objectives you wish to achieve. In summary, putting together a written business plan increases the likelihood of your business achieving success (Scarborough 2011).

Jerome Powell Is Not The Bad Guy, Tim L. Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

One of the maxims often heard in economics, agriculture, and politics is that those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it. At first glance, this is a pessimistic view of human behavior. However, I believe that in some part it is a reflection of the positive spirit exhibited by many Americans. While it is true some have not bothered to learn from history, others have simply emphasized the positive times while simultaneously limiting the memory of more challenging experiences.

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: December 11, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska consumer and business confidence remained positive during November 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 107.2 in November 2018, well above the neutral value of 100, although down from the sky-high level of 117.3 achieved during October. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 106.4 in November, down slightly from 108.3 in October, but still well above the neutral value. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 28 percent of respondents chose the availability and quality of labor while 24 mentioned customer demand and 9 percent mentioned the cost of goods …

Do We Need More Futures Contracts In Commodity Markets?, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

In the last couple of months, there has been news about a new futures contract for soybeans. The Financial Times and Reuters, among others, reported that the CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, is considering launching a futures contract based on Brazilian soybeans. The discussion seems to have started after trade issues between the United States and China resulted in a 25 percentage-point tariff on U.S. soybeans exported to China. As Chinese buyers try to avoid the tariff by purchasing grain from other suppliers, notably Brazil, a new price dynamics between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans could be emerging. This …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 21, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.51% during October of 2018. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the first quarter of 2019. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell in Nebraska during October, while building permits for single-family homes and business expectations improved. In particular, respondents to the October Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months.

Agricultural Production From The High Plains Aquifer Is Worth Over $3 Billion Per Year, Richard K. Perrin, Lilyan E. Fulginiti, Federico Garcia

Cornhusker Economics

Recent research (Garcia, Fulginiti and Perrin, 2018) has shown the that the extra agricultural production from irrigation across the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) was worth about $3.5 billion in 2007, $2 billion of which was produced in Nebraska. The aquifer water is valuable!

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: November 9, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska consumer and business confidence improved during October 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) rose to 117.3 in October from 110.6 in September. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) rose to 108.3 in October after a sub-par level of 97.0 during September. Both business and consumer confidence were well above the neutral level of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, 29 percent of respondents chose the availability and quality of labor while 27 mentioned customer demand and 15 percent mentioned competition from other businesses. This is the first time that labor availability …

The Economics Of The Capitalization Rate For Farmland, Jeff Stokes, Jim Jansen

Cornhusker Economics

There are three approaches that real estate appraisers use to value real property, namely, the market or sales comparison approach, the income approach, and the cost approach. The sales comparison approach is the primary way that residential real estate is appraised with the cost approach thrown in for good measure. For income producing properties, which includes commercial real estate as well as farm real estate, all three approaches are frequently used. When there are minimal improvements on farmland, the sales comparison and income approaches often provide competing estimates of value that must be reconciled so that an appraiser can render …

Initiative 427: Nebraska Medicaid Expansion, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

This article summarizes information regarding Initiative 427–the Medicaid expansion question on the November 6, 2018 ballot. It reprints the actual ballot language and the Nebraska Secretary of State’s summary of arguments for and against Initiative 427.

Background. Originally Medicaid covered the elderly, the disabled, children in low-income families, and low-income pregnant women. In 2010 Medicaid coverage was expanded by Congress to include the working poor. In 2012 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the provision of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) requiring states to expand Medicaid was unconstitutional. This made it a state option whether or not to expand Medicaid. …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 24, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.35% during September of 2018. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will slow in the coming months. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose in Nebraska during September, while building permits for single-family and airline passenger counts both declined. Business expectations were a bright spot for the Nebraska economy. Respondents to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. Manufacturing hours-worked …

Farm Programs, Payments And Prospects, Bradley D. Lubben

Cornhusker Economics

The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) began issuing payments to producers in October for Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs for the 2017 crop year. While these farm program payments had provided substantial cash flow to help buffer falling market price and farm income projections in the past three years, the current programs will provide relatively little cash flow for now and for the coming year. Only the ad hoc trade assistance payments and the outlook for new farm programs and decisions in 2019 may provide potential relief from the current outlook.

Applying Interconnected Game Theory To Analyze Transboundary Waters: A Case Study Of The Kura-Araks Basin, Marianna Khachaturyan, Karina Schoengold

Cornhusker Economics

A number of environmental problems are international in nature, including many water management issues. Rivers, for example, do not recognize political boundaries. Therefore, pollution generated in one country can affect neighboring countries, while water extraction in an upstream country can affect water flow and water availability in a downstream country. The situation creates an interdependency among countries, which might lead to disputes over the management of transboundary water. Therefore, coordination among the countries is necessary for effective management of these transboundary resources.

The focus of a recently published study (Khachaturyan and Schoengold, 2018) is the transboundary Kura-Araks Basin (see Figure …

Doing Well By Doing Good In The Fight Against Malnutrition And Hunger, Konstantinos Giannakas, Amalia Yiannaka

Cornhusker Economics

Technological innovation and the conduct of innovating firms are key weapons in the fight against hunger and the pursuit of food security around the world. Agricultural biotechnology seems uniquely equipped, if not destined, to spearhead the effort to combat malnutrition and hunger around the world by conferring significant agronomic benefits to producers and by having the ability to enhance both the resistance of plants to environmental stresses and the quality and nutritional value of food. Research that was recently published by the Center of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization- Policy Research Group at the University of Nebraska Lincoln analyzes the …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: October 5, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska consumer and business confidence diverged further during September 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) remained at a high level, rising from 110.4 In August to 110.6 in September. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell, dropping from a neutral value of 100.2 in August to 97.0 in September. Business confidence is strong, but consumer confidence has turned negative. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 35 percent of respondents, while the availability and quality of labor was mentioned by 26 percent and 16 percent mentioned competition from other …

Market Facilitation Program: Impact On Nebraska Corn And Soybean Producers, Anil Giri, Wes Peterson

Cornhusker Economics

In July 2018, President Trump imposed a first round of 25-percent tariffs on Chinese electronics and high-tech equipment including automobiles, computer hard drives, and LEDs. The tariffs were imposed on roughly $34 billion worth of imported goods. In August 2018 additional 25-percent tariffs were imposed on $16 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States and in September tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States were added. (Bradsher, 2018). The Trump Administration has also imposed automobile, steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from Canada, the European Union and other countries.

In response to the …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 26, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.00% during August of 2018. Solid growth in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will be solid during the first few months of 2019. Business expectations were a positive component of the leading indicator. Respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was an improvement in manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts, while initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped.

Farm Location Influence On The Optimal Crop Insurance And Pre-Harvest Hedging Level, Cory Walters

Cornhusker Economics

Improving farm financial health can come from improving the understanding of the market forces influencing the optimal crop insurance contract and preharvest hedging risk management tools. The biggest challenge for farmers is the difficulty of assessing risk since experiencing risk, is by default, rare. Additionally, farmers receive advice about which crop insurance plan they should purchase or how much pre-harvest hedging they should do from sources, such as farm magazines, that likely do not consider the differences in individual risk exposure. Following the advice of such sources could result in producers being inadvertently exposed to more risk. A producer’s location …

The Corn/Soybean Rotation And Profitability, Matt Stockton, Devin Broadhead

Cornhusker Economics

One of the most basic questions farmers must answer on an annual basis is what to plant. In some cases this is simply a choice among cultivars in others it is a choice among different crop types. In Nebraska the choice may vary considerably since many different crop types are grown. This discussion focuses on the factors that affect profitability, which are created by both biology and economics, and how that might be used to make the best crop rotation selection between corn and soybean cropping systems.

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: September 12, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence diverged in Nebraska during August 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) rose from 106.4 in July to 110.4 In August but the Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell, dropping from 101.9 in July to 100.2 in August. Business confidence remains well above the neutral level of 100, but consumer confidence is best described as neutral. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 26 percent of respondents, while the availability and quality of labor was mentioned by 24 percent, 13 percent mentioned competition from other businesses, …

Importance Of Being Digital Ready – What Does That Mean?, Charlotte Narjes

Cornhusker Economics

Communities often determine if they are digital ready on whether or not high speed internet is available. The conversation then focuses on who has high speed internet and who does not. Hence, the divide. High speed internet is an important factor on whether or not a community can be competitive in a global market. But, it is not the only digital-ready factor necessary to compete in a global economy. One challenge of focusing on the divide is that assumptions are made that individuals do not have skills in rural areas to use technology and, that these rural residents may not …

The Evolution Of Nebraska Corn Basis, Jessica J. Groskopf, Amanda Silva

Cornhusker Economics

In 2018 Nebraska farmers planted 9.7 million acres of corn, the most of any crop in the state. The primary uses for corn in the state are cattle feed and ethanol production. Nebraska currently has 25 ethanol plants producing around 2 billion gallons of ethanol annually. This capacity consumes approximately 40% of Nebraska’s annual corn production.

A Model For Farmer Support In Zimbabwe – Opportunity For Change, Brierly Kuhudzayi, Daniela Mettos

Cornhusker Economics

Community development refers to the collective action of a group of people to improve their quality of life or to fix a problem they face. It involves active participation by the people facing the problem. Input subsidy programs (ISPs) are commonly used in Sub-Saharan Africa as a strategy to achieve several development goals. They generally aim to improve the lives of poor subsistence-level farmers, improve agricultural output, and stimulate the economy. However, ISPs are not technically a community development tool because they are typically centrally planned and top-down in nature.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 22, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 was flat during July of 2018, rising by just 0.05%. A flat value for the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will slow significantly at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019. Business expectations were a positive component of the leading indicator. Respondents to the July Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. However, a rising U.S. dollar and a drop in building permits for …

Economics Of Experimental Design: Finding The Optimal Design Of A Whole Field Randomized Experiment, Taro Mieno, David S. Bullock, Aolin Gong

Cornhusker Economics

An April 2017 Cornhusker Economics article Getting to Know Your Yield Response Better through Whole-field Randomized Experiments discussed a case study detailing a whole-field randomized agronomic experiment (nitrogen and seed rate). The study was conducted in Kentucky and funded through the USDA-NIFA Data Intensive Farm Management (DIFM) project. The project has so far resulted in more than 50 experiments across several states, including Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, and Washington. The overarching goal of the project is to provide agricultural producers with the best input rate, variable or uniform, which maximizes their farm profits. This involves statistically estimating the crop response function …

2018 Cash Lease Adjustments On Irrigation Equipment For Cropland Rental Arrangements In Nebraska, Jim Jansen, Jeff Stokes

Cornhusker Economics

The Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Highlights Report 2017-2018 provides recent trends on land values and rental rates for landowners, tenants, and stakeholders. Each year the special feature section covers topics on new or emerging issues related to agricultural land in Nebraska. These topics reflect interest expressed by panel members and readership of the Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Highlights Report. The special feature section in 2018 focuses on cash lease adjustments on irrigation equipment for cropland rental arrangements in Nebraska. Results from this special feature section of the survey are summarized in this article.

Financial Impact Of The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act On Ag Producers, Tina N. Barrett

Cornhusker Economics

The dust still hasn’t completely settled from the changes made in December of 2017 to the tax code by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), but we are starting to dig through the law to make some sense of what this will look like for ag producers. What we know for sure is that the changes are far reaching and complex. We also know that for most producers, the changes will result in a lower tax liability. The largest unknown is exactly how the new 199a deduction (20% passthrough) will need to be implemented. We are currently still waiting …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: August 3, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Business confidence fell in Nebraska during July 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell from 115.4 in June to 106.4 In July. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) also fell, dropping from 103.9 in June to 101.9 in July. Both business and consumer confidence are above the neutral level of 100, but confidence in Nebraska is best described as solid rather than strong. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 36 percent of respondents, while the availability and quality of labor was mentioned by 24 percent and 9 percent …

2018 Nebraska Farm Custom Rates Statewide Survey Summary, Glennis Mcclure

Cornhusker Economics

Many Nebraska agricultural producers hire custom operators to perform machinery services for their farms and ranches across the state. The 2018 Nebraska Custom Rates Survey Report summarizes the current rates charged for specific machinery operations and other on farm or ranch custom services. Prices paid for these services become more critical as profit margins tighten because of lower commodity prices.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 25, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.40% during June of 2018. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the pace of Nebraska economic growth will slow significantly during the 4th quarter of 2018. The indicator fell due to another sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar. A rising dollar puts additional pressure on Nebraska businesses which export. A decline in manufacturing hours and an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance also contributed to the drop in the LEI-N. Business expectations were …