Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Property Value Impacts Of Foreclosed Housing Acquisitions Under Uncertainty, Michael P. Johnson Jr., Senay Solak, Rachel B. Drew, Jeffrey Keisler

Michael P. Johnson

Community development corporations seek to stabilize neighborhoods affected by the recent foreclosure crisis through acquisition and redevelopment of distressed properties. One rationale for this work is the alleviation or avoidance of negative foreclosure impacts. We estimate the lost value to proximate properties associated with a single foreclosure through a Markov chain representing probabilistic transitions between foreclosure stages. We apply our model to a case study of foreclosure properties in Chelsea, MA. A rank ordering by estimated property value impacts indicates significant potential gains in social value as compared to current community development practice. We extend our basic model to address …