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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation And Crises, Robert J. Shiller Aug 2011

Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation And Crises, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

It is the 100th anniversary of Irving Fisher’s 1911 book The Purchasing Power of Money . But, more important than that, it is a good time, during the current financial turmoil, to reconsider some of his theories again, in light of current events. And I think that some of his theories about variations in the purchasing power of money are very important today, have been underappreciated, and are worthy of considering anew.


Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz Jun 2011

Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The focus of this paper is on the house price stress test (termed ALMO) that was designed to assess the fiscal strength of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and, if necessary, to trigger remedial action in order to avert a crisis. We assess whether the ALMO stress test was an adequate representation of an extremely weak housing market, given the best available information leading up to the Great Recession. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to estimate the severity of low probability events (i.e., severe house price declines). We illustrate the complexity and subjective nature of the process used …


Building A World-Class System In Ireland’S Financial Crisis, Ellen Hazelkorn Jun 2011

Building A World-Class System In Ireland’S Financial Crisis, Ellen Hazelkorn

Articles

Irish higher education faces particular difficulties given the severity of its economic crisis. Like other countries, it is engaged in significant system restructuring coupled with managed policy direction. Where Ireland does differ is in its emphasis on a 'whole of country strategy' and commitment that teaching and research go hand-in-hand. This paper looks at the fortunes and mis-fortunes of Irish higher education.


Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun Jun 2011

Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the degree of bank competition in the euro area, the U.S. and U.K. before and after the recent financial crisis, and revisits the issue whether the introduction of EMU and the euro have had any impact on bank competition. The results suggest that the level of bank competition converged across euro area countries in the wake of the EMU. The recent global financial crisis led to a fall in competition in several countries and especially where large credit and housing booms had preceded the crisis...


Reform In The Credit Rating Industry, Ronald D. Knox Jun 2011

Reform In The Credit Rating Industry, Ronald D. Knox

Honors Theses

Ninety three percent of all AAA-rated subprime mortgage backed securities issued in 2006 were downgraded to junk bond status subsequent to the financial crisis. The credit rating agencies clearly failed to give the early warning signs on these and numerous financial products that went bust. This thesis investigates the role of credit rating agencies in the functioning of financial markets and proposes policy changes to reform this industry. The sources of market failures in this industry can be traced to conflicts of interest, barriers to entry, lack of accountability, and asymmetric information. I propose three possible reforms to improve the …


The Recent Financial Crisis And The Special Financing Interventions By The Central Bank Of Nigeria: Implications For The Real Sector Of The Nigerian Economy, O. O. Mbutor, D. J. Yilkudi Mar 2011

The Recent Financial Crisis And The Special Financing Interventions By The Central Bank Of Nigeria: Implications For The Real Sector Of The Nigerian Economy, O. O. Mbutor, D. J. Yilkudi

Bullion

This paper reviews the impacts of the crisis on the real sector of the Nigerian economy and highlights the various special financing intervention schemes, which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has wielded in a bid to reverse the down turn in the sector.


Comments On Key Lessons From The Economic Crisis, Robert C. Shelburne Feb 2011

Comments On Key Lessons From The Economic Crisis, Robert C. Shelburne

Robert C. Shelburne

Comments presented at the ILO Conference on the Key Lessons from the Economic Crisis


Is A Beautiful System Dying? A Possible Smithian Take On The Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath, Maria Pia Paganelli Jan 2011

Is A Beautiful System Dying? A Possible Smithian Take On The Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath, Maria Pia Paganelli

Economics Faculty Research

Adam Smith is not an optimistic describer of a providential order moved by an always-successful invisible hand. I present some of the more pessimistic analysis of Smith, which, unfortunately, seems to be most appropriate to describe and analyze our current affairs. This reading of Smith may provide an explanation for the events started in the fall of 2008.

The ‘beautiful system of natural liberty’ that Smith describes is a system that may be achieved only under rare circumstances. Smith recognizes systematic biases in human behaviours, ranging from overestimation of probability of success to almost blind admiration for the rich. He …


In The Aftermath Of The Financial Crisis Of 2008: What Have We Learned?, Luisa Blanco, Michael Crouch Jan 2011

In The Aftermath Of The Financial Crisis Of 2008: What Have We Learned?, Luisa Blanco, Michael Crouch

School of Public Policy Working Papers

In the aftermath of the financial crisis and economic recession of 2008, it is important to reflect not only on its causes, but also on specific policies that can help countries to move towards sustained economic growth. This publication provides a compendium of lectures that intend to do this. The focus of the discussion is around the U.S. (first two chapters) and Latin America (last chapter), which enhances our understanding of the forces at play and the necessary policies that need to be implemented in different regions of the world. Dr. Lee Ohanian points to the strange differences between the …


A Model For The Intervention Of A Financial Crisis, J. Barrow Jan 2011

A Model For The Intervention Of A Financial Crisis, J. Barrow

Faculty and Research Publications

This paper builds a model for intervention and/or mitigation of a financial crisis by first identifying those conditions precedent to a systemic based financial crisis, and then outlying a process to integrate firm specific and systematic risk into a comprehensive strategic model. A simple application of the model was able to identify significant outliers. For example, using 2006 to 2010 data, Capital One Financial Corporation was identified for intervention from as early as 2006. This corporation received $3.56 billion of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act Federal bailout funds.


Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer Jan 2011

Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and …


The Role Of Pension Funds In A Global Economy (In Italian), Paola Bongini, Gregorio Impavido Dec 2010

The Role Of Pension Funds In A Global Economy (In Italian), Paola Bongini, Gregorio Impavido

Paola Bongini

No abstract provided.