Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Mildest Recession: Output, Profits, And Stock Prices As The U.S. Emerges From The 2001 Recession, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This essay examines the state of the United States economy as it emerges from the 2001 recession. A comparison of several central economic variables indicates that the 2001 recession was the mildest recession in the postwar period. In light of highly differentiated characteristics of recessions, the paper suggests that we differentiate among downturns by a five-category “recession severity scale,” analogous to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. According to this approach, the 2001 recession fits in the least severe box, a “category I recession,” along with the 1963 and 1967 non-recessions. The paper next examines the behavior of profits in recent years …

The Efficient-Market Hypothesis During A Recession, Jill Marie Williams

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

The phrase, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" may make a portfolio manager shudder. I first learned about this theory while reading a book of the same name by Burton G. Malkiel. I saw the last four years crashing down around me as I read about the competition I would be facing upon graduation–a blindfolded chimpanzee.

The random walk theorizes that the stock market is so efficient that a blindfolded chimpanzee can throw darts at the Wall Street Journal to select a portfolio of stocks that will perform equally as well as those managed by the experts. Unfortunately for the …

Macroeconomic Strategy In Wartime, James Tobin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In 2001-02 the United States has been hit by two quite different shocks, terrorism and recession. As usual in time of war, national defense is the highest priority for use of the country’s resources. Although the opportunities for international warfare are limited, the challenges to the homeland are virtually unlimited. The president’s fiscal year 2003 budget includes $48 billion additional for the military and $38 billion additional for homeland defense. Given the gravity of the threat, it is hard to understand why new expenditures are not undertaken as soon as and as large as possible. This would also be timely …