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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Security Analysts' Career Concerns And Herding Of Earnings Forecasts, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Amit Solomon, Harrison G. Hong
Security Analysts' Career Concerns And Herding Of Earnings Forecasts, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Amit Solomon, Harrison G. Hong
Economics - All Scholarship
Several theories of reputation and herding (see, e.g., Scharfstein and Stein (1990)) suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns. Our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts. Specifically, we look at the relationship between an analyst's job tenure (a proxy for career concerns) and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance. We establish the following key results. (1) Older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones. (2) Their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger …
Submodel Estimation Of A Structural Vector Error Correction Model, William C. Horrace
Submodel Estimation Of A Structural Vector Error Correction Model, William C. Horrace
Economics - All Scholarship
In this paper we derive the concentrated likelihood function of a mutually independent subsystem (submodel) of equations from a p-dimensional vector error component model under cointegration. The structural estimates of the subsystem parameters are identified by exclusion restrictions. The maximum likelihood estimates may be useful for counterfactual policy analysis.
State-Space Versus Multiple Regression For Forecasting Urban Water Demand, R. Bruce Billings, William C. Horrace, Donald E. Agthe
State-Space Versus Multiple Regression For Forecasting Urban Water Demand, R. Bruce Billings, William C. Horrace, Donald E. Agthe
Economics - All Scholarship
No abstract provided.