Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Hierarchical Cluster Approach Toward Understanding The Regional Variable In Country Conflict Modeling, Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to examine how the regional variable in country conflict modeling affects forecast accuracy and identifies a methodology to further improve the predictions.

Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses statistical learning methods to both evaluate the quantity of data for clustering countries along with quantifying accuracy according to the number of clusters used.

Findings: This study demonstrates that increasing the number of clusters for modeling improves the ability to predict conflict as long as the models are robust.

Originality/value: This study investigates the quantity of clusters used in conflict modeling, while previous research assumes a specific quantity before …

Finding The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire: A Historical Data Analysis, Darryl K. Ahner, Luke M. Brantley

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to address the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition occurred than normally observed in previous studies for certain Middle Eastern and North African countries.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition. Also, proper strategies for handling the Arab Spring have been highly debated. This paper identifies which countries were affected by the Arab Spring and then applies data analysis techniques to predict a country’s tendency to suffer from …