Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Outside The Wire: U.S. Military Deployments And Public Opinion In Host States, Michael A. Allen, Michael E. Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain, Andrew Stravers

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes towards the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. presence, people, and government. This study has profound implications for the role that U.S. installations play in affecting the social fabric of host nations, and policy implications for the conduct of …

Conceptualizing And Measuring Patriarchy: The Importance Of Feminist Theory, Lindsay J. Benstead

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Why do we know so little about gender and politics in the Middle East? Most obviously, few women were elected to office in the Arab world until recently, limiting the study of women in formal politics. In Morocco, the first female was elected to the lower house in 1993, while in Saudi Arabia, women first ran for office—in municipal elections—in 2015. Systematic data on politics has also been historically scant, making the study of women’s informal participation, such as voting and civil society activities, also difficult. The Middle East tends to contribute less to comparative politics than have other regions, …

Why Does The Us Pay So Much For The Defense Of Its Allies?: 5 Questions Answered, Michael E. Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain, Michael A. Allen

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since the start of Donald Trump’s run for the U.S. presidency in 2015, he has been critical of the amount of money U.S. allies contribute to their own defense.

Now, the Trump administration is demanding that Japan and South Korea pay more for hosting U.S. troops stationed in those countries.

The media also reported that U.S. military leadership in South Korea discussed the possibility of withdrawing up to 4,000 troops from South Korea if it does not increase its contributions. The Pentagon has since denied having such plans.

We have each studied overseas deployments of U.S. military personnel for nearly …

Diplomatic Remedies For Thaad Madness: The Us, China And The Two Koreas, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This commentary assesses the geopolitical implications for war and peace in Northeast Asia of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense antimissile system that the US seeks to install in South Korea at a time of deep tensions in Northeast Asia.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Deeply Flawed Partnership, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The American people have become used to government trickery in foreign affairs—wars and interventions based on lies and falsified evidence, “national security” used to justify the whittling away of privacy, classification of documents to hide embarrassing disclosures, massaging of budget figures to mask outrageous spending on arms, and demands for new weapons when already in possession of an unmatched conventional and nuclear arsenal.

Now comes trickery in a different domain: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which has substantial bipartisan support and strong presidential endorsement. Eleven countries are awaiting the outcome in Congress as President Obama seeks approval to put the TPP …

China's Triangle Diplomacy 中国の三角外交, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Back in the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, the "strategic triangle" with the Soviet Union and China was the great game. The idea was to play off the two communist powers against one another, relying on their ideological warfare under Mao, deep cultural differences, and open conflict in border regions to sustain their mutual suspicions and fears of attack. Now the shoe is on the other foot, so to speak: China seems to be in charge of the game, using US-Russia enmity and its own on-again, off-again competition with the US to keep both those countries cooperative with …

Time For The U.S. To Engage North Korea 米、本気で北朝鮮と関わりを持つ時期がきた, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Sticks and carrots won't get North Korea to give up its nukes. But a willingness to negotiate a peace treaty and provide security guarantees might.

Xi Jinping Visits Seoul: The Bigger Picture 習近平のソウル訪問　大局をみすえて, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

China and Korea watchers jumped to attention when it was announced that Xi Jinping would visit South Korea from July 3-4, rather than visit North Korea first. Although the trip could have been seen as reciprocating ROK President Park Geun-hye’s visit to China in June 2013, the Chinese side surely was aware that the trip would be viewed abroad as a departure from standard Chinese protocol and would probably upset Kim Jong-un and his colleagues. But while the trip can be judged a success for China, the North Koreans may have less to worry about than might at first appear.

The Uncertain Future Of A 'New Type' Of Us-China Relationship　不透明な「新型」米中関係の未来, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

President Xi Jinping's call for a "new type of great-power relationship" in meetings in 2013 with President Obama raises important questions about the future of US-China relations. On the surface, it appeared that the two leaders were on the same page. At the June summit, Obama agreed with Xi that "working together cooperatively" and bringing US-China relations "to a new level" were sound ideas. When the G-20 countries convened at St. Petersburg in September, Obama said of Xi’s proposed new model: "we agreed to continue to build a new model of great power relations based on practical cooperation and constructively …

Political Performance, Leadership, And Regional Integration In Europe: An Examination Of The French And German Roles, Gaspare M. Genna, Birol Yesilada, Peter Andrew Noordijk

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states is central to the creation and deepening of regional integration since it is this capacity that smoothes out the transition from a closed to an open economy. Should a state have low levels of this capacity but desire openness, it will partner with regional leaders given the leaders’ higher relative political capacity. However, the leaders’ subsidy of a partner’s capacity comes at a price. The leaders would trade political capacity for forming a …

Stability And Instability In Third World Security Complexes: The Role Of Arms Transfers, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Controversy surrounds the alleged effects of foreign arms transfers on belligerency: do they precipitate international conflict, as some critics suggest, or do they promote stability by reinforcing deterrence, as others maintain? This paper examines the connection between arms transfers to the Third World and the occurrence of interstate conflict, including militarized disputes, from the end of World War II until the early 1990s. My analysis indicates that, in the aggregate, arms transfers almost uniformly contributed to subsequent instability within security complexes located in various regions of the Third World, but that the effects of American versus Russian arms supplies often …

Power Transition Theory And The Global Arms Trade: Exploring Constructs From Social Network Analysis, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Structural dimensions of the international system are key elements in power transition theory. Most theoretical applications to date have examined the distribution of power, and fluctuations in that distribution, as a precursor to global and regional warfare. Somewhat less attention has been paid to the coalitional structure of the international system in applied research. In this paper I suggest that certain concepts from power transition theory, including those that rely on information about alliance membership, might also be operationalized by examining the global arms trade using tools developed for social network analysis (SNA). I focus in particular on the SNA …

Preemption, Prevention, And Jus Ad Bellum, Craig L. Carr, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, released one year after the 9/11 attacks, the Bush administration asserted that “we must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objectives of today’s adversaries.” The administration’s reconceptualization has triggered an intense debate within academic and policymaking circles about the legal and ethical distinction (if any) between anticipatory and precautionary self-defense, and thus preemptive and preventive warfare. We begin by examining the present status on international law on the question of anticipatory self-defense. We then consider how the formative texts on international law—especially the writings of …

Ngos In The Transnational Development Network: Exploring Relational Resources In The Promotion Of Food Security, Mariah Kraner, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Programming decisions by international NGOs operating in the area of development are a function of both humanitarian and pragmatic concerns. Helping communities establish sustainable agricultural cooperatives to address problems of undernutrition, for example, motivates programs implemented by NGOs in the food security sector. But NGOs are strategic actors and must also be attentive to organizational imperatives in regard to funding. These concerns relate to donor preferences and the reality that aid projects must demonstrate tangible results. This paper examines the network of organizations responding to the needs of the one billion people worldwide who live in food insecure environments. We …

Former Soviet Bloc Locales In Africa's Illicit Arms Trade Network, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Small arms and light weapons are the primary cause of death in the violent conflicts raging today, but the small arms trade is difficult to track, and the illicit trade in small arms is doubly so. Nevertheless, information is available and research institutes like the Small Arms Survey and the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers are at the forefront of efforts to collect and distribute this information. This paper focuses on the illicit arms trade and draws on a database I am developing, the Illicit Arms Transfer Database, which systematizes information contained in journalistic reports on illicit small arms …

Impact Of The Cyprus Problem On Cfsp And Regional Power Transition In Europe, Birol A. Yeşilada

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Mathematicians posited that a “butterfly effect”might be present in complex interactions. Relationships between Power Transition in Europe, the future of European Union’s (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), and protracted Cyprus conflict are examples of this phenomenon. On the one hand, findings from Power Transition analysis indicate significant shift in global and regional hierarchies where the EU is expected to fall behind its global competitions –namely China, the United States, and India (Tammen et al, 2000; Yesilada, Efird, and Noordijk 2006). On the other hand, closer this “rising threat of China” can be postponed by a deeper degree of …

Averting War In Northeast Asia: A Proposal 東北アジアでの戦争勃発を防ぐ ––– 一提言, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

While the United States and South Korea consider whether or not to accept North Korea’s call for an “unconditional” return to the Six Party Talks (6PT) or China’s call for multilateral negotiations, Northeast Asia is sliding in the direction of deepening conflict that could lead to war. China-Japan relations, which had been warming since the departure of Koizumi Junichiro, and especially since the victory of the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009, are again in a deep freeze over disputed territory. One consequence is a reorientation of Japan’s defense strategy southward, in the direction of the Senkakus (Diaoyutai). Washington is …

From Korea To Vietnam: The Origins And Mindset Of Postwar U.S. Interventionism　朝鮮からヴェトナムへ−−戦後米国の軍事干渉の起源と考え方, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The wars in Korea and Vietnam were of a piece, directly related by virtue of U.S. global strategy and China’s security concerns. This paper, focusing mainly on the U.S. side in these wars, argues that three characteristics of American policy had enduring meaning for the rest of the Cold War and even beyond: the official mindsets that led to U.S. involvement, the centrality of the China threat in American decision making, and the common legacy of intervention against nationalism and in support of authoritarian regimes. It is part of a continuing Asia-Pacific Journal series on the Korean War on the …

World Values Survey In Cyprus 2006: A Research Note, Birol A. Yeşilada, Craig Webster, Nicos Peristianis, Harry Anastasiou

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper provides an overview of the authors' recent extension of Ronald Inglehart's World Values Survey (WVS) in Cyprus. Whereas the WVS is in its fifth wave of study (Inglehart et al., 1981, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006-2007), Cyprus iS included for the first time. Currently, the WVS comprises 99 counrnes around the world and is designed to enable the most comprehensive cross-national comparison of values and norms on a wide range of topICS and to monitor changes in values and attitudes across the globe. The comprehensive survey of Greek and Turkish Cypriots' attitudes, values, and beliefs will certainly enrich …

The Illicit Arms Trade: A Social Network Analysis, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, researchers have increasingly turned their attention to the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Small arms are difficult to track and are not the stuff of military parades, but they are immensely destructive. In addition to what is already circulating, a substantial percentage of what is newly produced enters the black market and is destined for conflict zones across the globe. I argue that the illicit trade in small arms shares some important properties with networked forms of organization studied by sociologists. I then employ quantitative methods developed for the study of social networks in an …

Reconciling Japan And China, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The conflict-resolution literature offers new insights to reconciling parties in conflict. This article applies that literature, along with political-science approaches, to the seemingly intractable China-Japan rivalry. Proceeding from the standpoint that China and Japan need one another, and should manage their conflict for mutual benefit, the article suggests several steps they may take—bilaterally, in multilateral settings, and in civil society—to reduce tensions and promote better understanding.

Emperor Has No Clothes: Eu's Cyprus Challenge, Birol A. Yeşilada, Ahmet Sozen

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the words of the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, “membership of [politically divided] Cyprus in the European Union coupled with Turkey’s membership aspirations has seriously complicated future peace negotiations on the island.” (Hürriyet, June 16, 2006). This is a rather harsh assessment of EU’s Cyprus policy given the fact that membership in the Union would most likely create the optimal conditions for peace and stability between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Yet, EU membership of one side at the expense of the other community, seem to have created more obstacles for peace. This paper provides a critical analysis …

The Black Market In Small Arms: Examining A Social Network, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, researchers have increasingly turned their attention to the proliferation of small arms, a transnational trade amounting to over $7 billion in value during 2002. Small arms are difficult to track and are not the stuff of military parades, but they are immensely destructive. As much as $1 billion worth enters the black market annually. I argue that the illicit trade in small arms should be understood not as a market but as a network, one that shares some important properties with networked forms of organization studied by sociologists. I then employ quantitative methods developed for the study …

Mapping The Small Arms Trade: Insights From Social Network Analysis, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, researchers have increasingly turned their attention to the proliferation of small arms, a transnational trade amounting to over $7 billion in value during 2002. Small arms are difficult to track and are not the stuff of military parades, but they are immensely destructive. The trade in small arms should be understood not as a market but as a network, one that shares some important properties with networked forms of organization studied by sociologists. I make this argument and then employ quantitative methods developed for the study of social networks in an effort to show the basic structure …

Changing Structure Of The Arms Trade: A Social Network Analysis, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The global arms trade should be understood not as a market but as a network, one that shares some important properties with networked forms of organization studied by sociologists. I make this argument and then employ quantitative methods developed for social network analysis in an effort to describe the evolving structure of the arms trade network since the end of World War II. That structure has changed significantly over the past fifty years. It became less dense in the early years of the cold war as newly independent states joined the society of states, but had yet to develop many …

A Bounded Rationality Analysis Of The Cyprus Problem, Birol Yesilada, Jacek Kugler, Harry Anastasiou, Ahmet Sozen, Brian Efird

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The time frame for a final decision on the Cyprus problem is narrowing very rapidly. The latest peace plan proposed by the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, known as the Annan Plan, to solve the problem between the Greek Cypriot (G/Cs) and Turkish Cypriot (T/Cs) communities underwent the last refinements in February 2003 to bridge the gap between the two sides. Yet, despite intense domestic (especially in the Turkish north) and international pressures on the two sides to sign the agreement the Turkish Cypriot leadership rejected the proposal as being insufficient in meeting their demands. Despite the apparent low in …

Conflict Emergence And Escalation In Interactive International Dyads, David Todd Kinsella, Bruce M. Russett

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine whether the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to those affecting militarized disputes. Analyzing dyadic interactions during the years 1951–1992, we estimate a model to take into account selection effects and check it against another allowing conjunctive causation. Both provide close approximations to theoretical models of the conflict process and yield similar results. We confirm Kant’s belief that all states are subject to the realist conditions of interstate competition that makes disputes likely, but that liberal influences, if present, can constrain the escalation of such disputes to war. Several influences on the conflict process have nonmonotonic …

Symbols Of Statehood: Military Industrialization And Public Discourse In India, David Todd Kinsella, Jugdep S. Chima

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This article examines the forces driving the pursuit of military production capacity in India, including those behind the Indian nuclear and space programmes. We are mainly interested in whether symbolic motivations regularly find expression in the public discourse. We review all articles on the subject of weapons development and production appearing in India Today from May 1977 to April 1999. There are three closely interrelated yet distinguishable concerns in the public discourse that we consider symbolic: that military industrialization is a means of asserting India's autonomy in international affairs, that it is a means of establishing India's international status and …

Arms Transfers, Dependence, And Regional Stability: Isolated Effects Or General Patterns?, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

There are two parts to this paper. The first part examines the impact of arms transfers on the conflictual behavior of third world recipients. I conceptualize conflict as a multiplicative function of total arms imports and the extent to which the recipient is dependent on relatively few arms suppliers. My hypothesis that arms imports encouraged belligerence but that arms-transfer dependence diminished this effect is not widely supported by my time series analyses: only twelve of 86 countries analyzed exhibit this dual pattern. The second part of the paper examines the impact of arms transfers on the aggregate level of military …

The Worsening Eu-Turkey Relations, Birol A. Yeşilada

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, two developments have challenged Turkey's national and cultural identity--a growing Islamist movement at home and the European Union's (EU) orientation toward Turkey. While the Turkish government and the military continue to pursue a pro-NATO foreign policy orientation, an increasing number of Turks have begun to question whether the country could not be better served by reducing their ties to the EU. The apparent dissatisfaction with the West stems, to a significant extent, from the EU's decision to exclude Turkey from the next wave of EU membership expansion. At the Luxembourg summit in December 1997, the European leaders …