Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Stress Testing During Times Of War, Kathryn Judge

Faculty Scholarship

In the spring of 2009, the United States was mired in the greatest recession it had faced since the Great Depression. In March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen to 6,594.44, a total decline of 53.4 percent from its peak in the fall of 2007. The official unemployment rate was over 9 percent and still trending upward, eventually exceeding 10 percent. With the support of Congress, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and other financial regulators had launched an array of initiatives to contain the fallout of what had become a global financial crisis. These interventions, including a massive recapitalization …

Corporate Crime And Punishment: An Empirical Study, Dorothy S. Lund, Natasha Sarin

All Faculty Scholarship

For many years, law and economics scholars, as well as politicians and regulators, have debated whether corporate criminal enforcement overdeters beneficial corporate activity or in the alternative, lets corporate criminals off too easily. This debate has recently expanded in its polarization: On the one hand, academics, judges, and politicians have excoriated enforcement agencies for failing to send guilty bankers to jail in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis; on the other, the U.S. Department of Justice has since relaxed policies that encouraged individual prosecutions and reduced the size of fines and number of prosecutions. A crucial and yet understudied …

The Effects Of Tax Policies On Entrepreneurship In Emerging Versus Mature Economies: Do Differences Exist Between Nascent And Established Firms?, Benjamin B. Boozer, Taleah H. Collum

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

An extensive body of research defines various levels of entrepreneurship and considers emerging trends. This study uses data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) in developing a model that measures the impact of taxes and bureaucracy on entrepreneurship. The analysis considers effects by type of firm – nascent and established – and type of economy – emerging and mature. The aim of the manuscript is to test directional impact of tax policies on entrepreneurial activity. The model utilizes counter and dichotomous variables to measure effects before, during, and after the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Tax policies adversely impact both nascent and established …

3 Lessons From The Gfc In How To Lead Through The Coronavirus Crisis, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

There are three lessons to be learned from the GFC that will help leaders in managing through the coronavirus crisis, according to a UNSW Business School expert

Private Equity Value Creation In Finance: Evidence From Life Insurance, Divya Kirti, Natasha Sarin

All Faculty Scholarship

This paper studies how private equity buyouts create value in the insurance industry, where decentralized regulation creates opportunities for aggressive tax and capital management. Using novel data on 57 large private equity deals in the insurance industry, we show that buyouts create value by decreasing insurers' tax liabilities; and by reaching-for-yield: PE firms tilt their subsidiaries' bond portfolios toward junk bonds while avoiding corresponding capital charges. Previous work on affiliated or "shadow" reinsurance and capital management misses the important role that private equity buyouts play as recent drivers of these phenomenon. The trend we document is of growing importance in …

The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor …

Re-Making Of The Turkish Crisis, ÖZgüR Orhangazi, Erinç Yeldan

PERI Working Papers

Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy has abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per …

Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Markets, Rene Cabral, Francisco G. Carneiro, Andre V. Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

The paper investigates the exchange rate on the reaction function of 24 emerging markets economies’ (EMEs) central banks from 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects (FE) ordinary least squares and then system generalized methods of the moments techniques. Under FE, the exchange rate is important in the reaction function of EMEs. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and the exchange rate, the exchange rate remains positive and statistically significant (but quantitatively less) across inflation targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and non-targeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction …

A Tale Of Two Markets: Regulation And Innovation In Post-Crisis Mortgage And Structured Finance Markets, William W. Bratton, Adam J. Levitin

All Faculty Scholarship

This Article takes the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the financial crisis to review recent developments in the structured products market, connecting the emergent pattern to post-crisis regulation.

The Article tells a tale of two markets. The financial crisis stemmed from excessive risk-taking and shabby practice in the subprime home mortgage market, a market that owed its existence to the private-label, originate to securitize model. But the pre-crisis boom in private label subprime mortgage-backed securities could never have happened absent back up financing from an array of structured products and vehicles created in the capital markets—the CDOs that found …

Government Policy’S Influence On Shadow Banking In China, Sara Hsu

PERI Working Papers

Shadow banking in China has been viewed by government officials and industry experts as illegitimate finance, but as a key means of financing by others. For the former, the industry has been seen as overly risky, potentially undermining the formal financial system. The latter see shadow banking as an increasingly important part of the financial system, filling a gap in the provision of finance to particular sectors and smaller firms.

In this paper, we seek to understand the effect of government views on shadow banking by analyzing the impact of government regulation on the shadow banking and non-shadow banking financial …

Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Sai Fan Pei

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter reviews the financial development strategies adopted by the Singapore government as it navigates internal and external changes to build a vibrant center of finance in the Asia Pacific region. Sections 2 and 3 provide an overview of the structure of the financial system and the financial governance framework respectively. This is followed by a discussion, in Section 4, on the outward looking development strategy that underpinned the successful development of Singapore’s financial sector. Section 5 highlights the reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis that led to the building of a well-diversified and thriving international …

Disentangling The Impacts Of Industrial And Global Diversification On Firm Risk, Mohammad Jafarinejad, Thanh Ngo, Diego Escobari

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine the impact of corporate diversification on firm risk exposure from 1998 to 2016. We find that both global and industrial diversification mitigate idiosyncratic and world market risk while having a negligible impact on U.S. market risk, but the effects vary before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Before the crisis, only global diversification mitigates idiosyncratic risk, but it increases firms' exposure to world market risk. During the crisis, industrial diversification increases idiosyncratic risk, but both types of diversification increase exposure to U.S. market risk. After the crisis, both types of diversification increase firms' exposure to U.S. …

Promesa, Puerto Rico And The American Empire, Pedro Caban

Latin American, Caribbean, and U.S. Latino Studies Faculty Scholarship

As the United States ascended to hyper-power status during the late 1970s, it changed colonial policy in Puerto Rico. The change, which included the elimination of favorable tax legislation and demilitarization, devastated Puerto Rico’s economy. Puerto Rico borrowed heavily in a failed effort to offset the dramatic decline in capital inflows. The federal government enacted PROMESA after Puerto Rico announced it could not repay the debt. The law was designed to restore Puerto Rico to financial solvency by imposing oppressive austerity measures. PROMESA was a watershed event because it stripped Puerto Rico of the limited sovereignty the federal government had …

Bank Net Interest Margins, The Yield Curve, And The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis, Peter V. Egly, David W. Johnk, Andre V. Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using quarterly call report data from 2000 to 2016, we reexamine the relationship between net interest margins (NIM) and the yield curve for more than 5,500 U.S. commercial banks. In the full sample, yield curve and RGDP growth have positive effects on NIM, while inflation and deposit‐to‐loan ratios (D/L) have negative effects. Splitting the sample around the 2007–2009 crisis, we show the impact of yield curve and RGDP growth on NIM increasing during the “recovery” (2009Q3 to 2016Q4), and inflation and D/L changing signs. Positive effects of yield curve on profits vary with bank size and change over time.

Oil Price Shocks And American Depositary Receipt Stock Returns, Shahil Sharma

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper we examine the impact of oil price shocks on twelve countries American Depositary Receipt (ADR) returns using monthly data from 1999.01 to 2014.12. The results show that oil price shocks have a positive and statistically significant impact on ADR return in all twelve countries. These results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables such as oil price volatility and the spillover of the United States stock market. Further analysis shows that this effect is stronger in the post financial crisis time period compared to the pre-financial crisis time period.

The Saving & Loan Insolvencies And The Costs Of Financial Crisis, Alexander J. Field

Economics

At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and in sharp contrast with 2007–2009, they in fact had little macroeconomic significance. Savings and Loan (S&L) remediation cost between 2 percent and 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie actually made money for the US Treasury. But the direct cost of government remediation is largely irrelevant in judging macro significance. What matters is the cumulative output loss associated with …

The Bonus-Driven “Rainmaker” Financial Firm: How These Firms Enrich Top Employees, Erode Shareholder Value And Create Systemic Financial Instability, Economic Crises And Rising Inequality, James Crofty

PERI Working Papers

We recently experienced a global financial crisis so severe that only massive rescue operations by governments around the world prevented a total financial market meltdown and perhaps another global Great Depression. One precondition for the crisis was the perverse, bonus-driven compensation structure employed in important financial institutions such as investment banks. This structure provided the rational incentive for key decision makers in these firms (who I call “rainmakers”) to take the excessive risk and employ the excessive leverage that helped create the bubble and made the crisis so severe. This paper presents and evaluates extensive data on compensation practices in …

Macroprudential Regulation Of Mortgage Lending, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

Much regulatory effort has been devoted to improving mortgage lending, the principal source of housing finance. To date, that effort has primarily been microprudential—intended to correct market failures in order to increase economic efficiency. In contrast, and while there is some overlap, this article focuses on a more “macroprudential” regulation of mortgage lending—intended to reduce systemic risk. Although largely underdeveloped in the literature, the macroprudential regulation of mortgage lending would have two goals: an ex ante goal of preventing systemic shocks in housing finance and the housing sector, and an ex post goal of ensuring that housing finance, the housing …

Investing And Pretending, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

One of the more prominent components of Dodd–Frank’s regulatory changes was Title VII, providing for the regulation of the over-the-counter derivatives known as “swaps.” A swap is a financial instrument whose value is based on an asset—the “reference asset”—that is wholly unrelated to the swap itself. Although there was much ado about swap regulation immediately after Dodd–Frank’s enactment, the same cannot be said of the many rules that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) has subsequently adopted pursuant to its authority under Title VII. This Article critically evaluates the CFTC’s “swap rules” and identifies the regulatory vision that they reflect. …

The Broken Buck Stops Here: Embracing Sponsor Support In Money Market Fund Reform, Jill E. Fisch

All Faculty Scholarship

Since the 2008 financial crisis, in which the Reserve Primary Fund “broke the buck,” money market funds (MMFs) have been the subject of ongoing policy debate. Many commentators view MMFs as a key contributor to the crisis because widespread redemption demands during the days following the Lehman bankruptcy contributed to a freeze in the credit markets. In response, MMFs were deemed a component of the nefarious shadow banking industry and targeted for regulatory reform. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) misguided 2014 reforms responded by potentially exacerbating MMF fragility while potentially crippling large segments of the MMF industry.

Determining the …

Integration Of Central And Eastern European And The Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions From The Global Financial Crisis, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Anna Tsibulina

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine integration of financial markets and banking sectors in Central and Eastern Europe and the euro area. We study co-movements between government bond and equity markets of Germany and those of Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, as well as Slovenia and Slovakia (the two recent euro members). We assume that financial integration is essential for subsequent monetary convergence, as it will enable the euro candidates to mitigate systemic risk and avert potentially destabilizing shocks. Government bond yields of the Czech Republic and Poland show high correlation with German yields, in contrast to those of the remaining countries. Equity returns of …

The Financial Crisis And Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides estimates of the effects of the fall in financial and housing wealth in 2008-2009 on overall macroeconomic activity. These effects are large and account for a large fraction of the slowdown in activity. Much of the 2008-2009 recession is estimated to be simply standard wealth effects at work.

How To Improve The Financial Architecture And Its Resilience, Dirk Helbing, Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Fabio Caccioli, J. Doyne Farmer, Steve Keen, Katharina Pistor, Dennis J. Snower, Olsen Richard, Angelo Ranaldo, Norbert Häring, Edward Fullbrook

Faculty Scholarship

This financial resilience survey was circulated on behalf of a working group of the Complexity Council of the World Economic Forum comprised of Prof. Eve Mitleton-Kelly of London School of Economics and Prof. Dirk Helbing at ETH Zurich's Risk Center. It was sent to a few dozens of financial experts with the aim to create an inventory of ideas of how the financial system might be improved and made more resilient. Unconventional ideas were also welcome.

The Bankruptcy Code’S Safe Harbors For Settlement Payments And Securities Contracts: When Is Safe Too Safe?, Charles W. Mooney Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

This Article addresses insolvency law-related issues in connection with certain financial-markets contracts, such as securities contracts, commodity contracts, forward contracts, repurchase agreements (repos), swaps and other derivatives, and master netting agreements. The Bankruptcy Code provides special treatment—safe harbors—for these contracts (collectively, qualified financial contracts or QFCs). This special treatment is considerably more favorable for nondebtor parties to QFCs than the rules applicable to nondebtor parties to other contracts with a debtor. Yet even some strong critics of the safe harbors concede that some special treatment may be warranted. This Article offers a critique of the safe harbor for settlement payments, …

Behaviorism In Finance And Securities Law, David A. Skeel Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

In this Essay, I take stock (as something of an outsider) of the behavioral economics movement, focusing in particular on its interaction with traditional cost-benefit analysis and its implications for agency structure. The usual strategy for such a project—a strategy that has been used by others with behavioral economics—is to marshal the existing evidence and critically assess its significance. My approach in this Essay is somewhat different. Although I describe behavioral economics and summarize the strongest criticisms of its use, the heart of the Essay is inductive, and focuses on a particular context: financial and securities regulation, as recently revamped …

A Case For Banking Oversight Reform In Crisis Mitigation, J. Barrow, S. Smalt

Faculty and Research Publications

This paper reviews the key weaknesses in the banking system related to the 2007 global financial crisis and finds supervisory oversight and accountability underrepresented or missing in recommended solutions although they are a critical contributor to the problem. The paper purports: (1) focusing on the fundamental factors that attribute to the vulnerability of the banking system is a key component of a model for the mitigation of a financial crisis and; (2) the factors are interrelated; therefore, the model should be holistic. The analysis results in an integrative blueprint and includes a simple case study application. The findings of the …

The Universal Savings Credit, Christian Weller, Sam Ungar

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 took a tremendous toll on household wealth and shattered the sense of financial security for millions of American families. American households lost more than $20 trillion in wealth (in 2012 dollars) in the Great Recession, and households still had $10 trillion less in wealth at the end of 2012 than they had before the crisis. This massive wealth decline contributed to a widespread loss of economic security, particularly among lower-income and moderate-income families, single women, and communities of color.

This economic insecurity can have long-ranging adverse effects on U.S. economic growth as American …

The Organization Of Banking And Supervision, Introduction And Overview, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

"The focus of this Special Issue is on organizational reforms in the financial sector in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2007-2009 and the subsequent euro-zone crisis. In particular, the perception that many banks were too big and too complex to fail during the crisis, which led to very costly bailouts at tax-payers expense in several countries, has fueled a number of proposals to limit the size and the complexity of financial institutions, as well as proposals to reorganize public authorities responsible for supervision and crisis management."

From Financing Social Insurance To Insuring Financial Markets: The Socialisation Of Risk And The Privatisation Of Profit In An Age Of Irresponsibility, Simon Lee, Richard Woodward

Books/Book Chapters

Commentaries on the financial meltdown that began with Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 trace its origins to greedy bankers exploiting lax regulatory practices to take excessive risks through exotic and arcane financial instruments. While not wishing to demur from this analysis this chapter takes issue with the frequent failure to acknowledge that this has come about as a consequence of the (mis)application of state power over the past 50 years (see Helleiner 1994). Starting with the tacit support for the development of the Euromarkets in the 1960s and culminating with the responses to the turmoil of 2008-2010 the chapter …

The Fiscal Forensics Of The Las Vegas Strip Lessons From The Financial Crisis, Dean M. Macomber

Occasional Papers

Hitting with the force of a 100-year storm, the first two years of the financial crisis caused a $5.2 billion swing from profitability to loss for the top 22 performing Las Vegas Strip properties between peak fiscal year 2007 and 2009. By fiscal year 2011 visitor count had almost climbed back to peak levels but the aggregate loss is still stubbornly high at $ -1.6 billion. Other signs of recovery trickle in but are sporadic and volatile. This article is an attempt to disaggregate the variance and look at where Las Vegas has been, where it is now and how …