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Articles 1 - 12 of 12
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
The outcomes of wagers on underdogs in the National Football League for the 2003-2007 seasons indicated that what had been anomalous behavior no longer existed. The failure of underdogs to beat the spread in profitable or nonrandom fashion supports the argument that competitive markets are efficient and undermines the proposition that behavioral finance can illuminate exploitable betting patterns.
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
In an effort to learn if systematic misperceptions by market participants can undermine efficient prices and create regular profit opportunities, Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993) investigated whether participants in the basketball-betting market overbet streaking (or "hot") teams. The purpose of this note is determine whether streaking teams - both hot and cold-in college football alter point spreads to an exploitable degree. The pointwise outcomes of college football teams following 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, 8-, and 9-game streaks during the 1996-2000 seasons. Streaks in the aggregate produced only breakeven results when used to predict the outcomes of …
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Ladd Kochman
To the extent that betting is analogous to investing, it seems fair to think that the football-betting market could provide a legitimate test of the neglected-firm effect. In the context of football-betting, neglect as a predictor variable appears to possess no special qualities. Even as the basis for a contrarian rule (that is, betting on teams that are least-neglected), the condition of being overlooked generated a W/B ratio (52.30 percent) that was unable to hurdle the 52.38-percent breakeven rate. Clearly, from a neglected-teams perspective, the football-betting market is efficient. A broader conclusion might be that the neglected-firm effect has little …
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
The availability of point spreads for the past three WNBA seasons offers researchers an early opportunity to test the efficiency of the market for wagers on WNBA games. While the more mature betting markets for football, baseball and men's basketball have generally denied regular profits to participants, the unique and emerging nature of the WNBA would seem to warrant another look at the vulnerability of betting lines. By examining the efficiency of WNBA point spreads, this study is, to a large extent, testing the hypothesis that markets in the emerging stage lack the participation that ensures efficient pricing and thus …
Pricing Inefficiencies In The Football-Betting Market, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Pricing Inefficiencies In The Football-Betting Market, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
Since Pankoff (Journal of Business, 1968), investment writers have recognized that bets on the outcome of football games provide an unusually direct test of pricing efficiency by market consensus. In a football context, prices are proxied by pointspreads (values ranging from 1 to 50+, which represent the bettors' expectations regarding the stronger team's victory margin). Efficiency refers to the impossibility of using betting rules based on past performance or information not discounted by the spread to win consistently.
How Do Gamblers Maintain And Illusion Of Control?, Elizabeth Cowley, Donnel A. Briley, Colin Farrell
How Do Gamblers Maintain And Illusion Of Control?, Elizabeth Cowley, Donnel A. Briley, Colin Farrell
Donnel A Briley
Gamblers' enduring illusions of control (IOC) may be one reason why they continue to gamble in the face of sustained losses. If gamblers persist in the belief that they have special skills, knowledge and other advantages when gambling, they may be able to convince themselves it is worth doing again. Maintaining an IOC requires selective attention of the illusion supporting moments during the construction of an evaluation of a gambling session.Objective: Test the hypothesis that selected moments, specifically the moment of the highest win and the last moment of the gaming session, explain the retrospective evaluation of the session for …
The Gambling Behavior Of Indigenous Australians, Nerilee Hing, Helen Breen, Ashley Gordon, Alex Russell
The Gambling Behavior Of Indigenous Australians, Nerilee Hing, Helen Breen, Ashley Gordon, Alex Russell
Dr Helen Breen
The gambling activities of minority groups such as Indigenous peoples are usually culturally complex and poorly understood. To redress the scarcity of information and contribute to a better understanding of gambling by Indigenous people, this paper presents quantitative evidence gathered at three Australian Indigenous festivals, online and in several Indigenous communities. With support from Indigenous communities, the study collected and analyzed surveys from 1,259 self-selected Indigenous adults. Approximately 33 % of respondents gambled on card games while 80 % gambled on commercial gambling forms in the previous year. Gambling participation and involvement are high, particularly on electronic gaming machines (EGMs), …
A System Of Exemptions: Historicizing State Illegality In Indonesia, Robert Cribb
A System Of Exemptions: Historicizing State Illegality In Indonesia, Robert Cribb
Robert Cribb
No abstract provided.
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Rodney J. Paul
The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor …
Gambling Interacts With Trauma To Predict Alexithymia Scores Among College Students, Tara K. Cossel, Maria J. Herrera, Dennis E. Mcchargue
Gambling Interacts With Trauma To Predict Alexithymia Scores Among College Students, Tara K. Cossel, Maria J. Herrera, Dennis E. Mcchargue
Tara K. Cossel (Tara Morton)
No abstract provided.
Gambling Awareness For Youth: An Analysis Of The "Don't Gamble Away Our Future" Program, Lisa M. Taylor
Gambling Awareness For Youth: An Analysis Of The "Don't Gamble Away Our Future" Program, Lisa M. Taylor
Lisa M. Taylor
Gambling has become increasingly popular among minors and is easily accessible to them. This is alarming since research has indicated that minors are more susceptible to gambling pathology than adults. Additionally, gambling has devastating effects on minors that gamble as well as their families and communities. The Illinois Institute for Addiction Recovery (IIAR) developed a gambling awareness prevention program called “Don’t Gamble Away our Future™” to educate minors about gambling and the dangers associated with it. The IIAR started collecting data for the purpose of evaluation in 2005. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the program’s effectiveness …