Social and Behavioral Sciences | Open Access Articles

Keynote Address By Sanusi L. Sanusi, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Economic and Financial Review

The keynote address of the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria at the CBN Executive seminar with the theme Global Capital Flows, Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Stability at Golden Tulip Hotel, Festac Town, Lagos, December 2-5, 2013.

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Capital Flows, Capital Control And Exchange Rate Regimes, Jonathan A. Aremu

Economic and Financial Review

The objective of this presentation is to examine the importance of capital controls on the flow of foreign capital under the current circumstance for the benefit of the Nigerian economy. Part II of the paper will look into some critical issues in the global capital flows by identifying the principal agents; structure and trends of the flows; effects; and policy options in managing the flows. In Part III, an attempt is made to review the historical developments of global governance of capital controls since the pre-World War I, while Part IV examines the policy challenges in capital control management strategies. …

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Domestic Credit Growth And International Capital Flows: Implications For Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigates the effect of foreign capital flows on domestic credit growth, specifically, and its implication for monetary policy. The paper is structured into 6 sections. Section 2 provides the review of related theoretical and empirical literature. Section 3 provides stylized facts on the structure and changing structure of domestic credit and international capital flows in Nigeria while section 4 deals with capital flows and the dynamics of monetary policy in Nigeria. Section 5 provides the empirical analysis, while section 6 concludes the study.

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Managing The Downside Risks Of Surging Capital Flows On Financial Stability For Sub-Saharan African Countries, Veronica Kalema

Economic and Financial Review

This paper discusses how capital flows has affected the sub-Saharan Africa. It also highlights the fundamental and growth prospects that are likely to continue drawing capital inflow in the future as well as the risk associated with it.

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Policy Space For Capital Controls And Macroeconomic Stability: Lessons From Emerging Economies, Christiana E. E. Okojie

Economic and Financial Review

The paper discusses the concept of policy space and the factors influencing policy space in developing economies. It also discusses changing attitudes towards capital controls by researchers and agencies with emphasis on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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Coping With Capital Flow Volatility: Policy Consideration For Nigeria, Mike I. Obadan

Economic and Financial Review

Foreign capital flows have, from time to time, elicited deep concerns and debates because of their tendency to be volatile besides various macroeconomic and other related effects. Generally, the volatility of capital flows, especially in the form of huge surges pose significant risks and raise concerns about excessive exchange rate appreciation and the corresponding adverse impact on exports and growth.

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Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, Ndubuisi I. Nwokoma

Economic and Financial Review

This article examines the impact of foreign capital flow in industrialised countries. The theoretical foundation for the proposition that capital flows can promote macroeconomic performance and stability of emerging economies was entrenched in the 2-gap model, which posits that development may be hampered by the existence of both the savings and foreign exchange gaps in the developing countries.

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Empirical Examination Of Foreign Capital Flows And Growth Nexus In Emerging Economies, Bassem Kamar

Economic and Financial Review

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of foreign capital flows on economic performance in three ways. First, it analyses empirically the direct effect of capital account liberalisation on growth; second, it continues to explore the subject by testing one of the indirect effects of capital flows on economic welfare, namely their influence on competitiveness; and finally, it breaks down the issue further by decomposing capital flows into their specific elements â€“ FDI, portfolio investments, aid, debt, remittances and tests their effect on competitiveness.

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Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, I. Nwokoma Ndubisi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper discusses both conceptual and theoretical perspectives of capital flows and their macroeconomic stabilisation strands.

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Determinants Of Bilateral Trade Performance Of The Member Countries Of The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), E. Osuji

Economic and Financial Review

This study sought to identify the drivers of import demand in the region, as a basis for proposing achievable alternative strategies for enhancing the level of intra-regional trade in the Zone. The study estimated a global import trade model for the Zone to establish the key determinants of its import demand. Using the pooled regression technique, the study analyzed quarterly data spanning the period 1985 to 2012, for the five original member countries of the WAMZ. The following is a highlight of the outcome of the analyses: given its positive sign and significance, trade liberalisation has the potential of boosting …

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Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts an empirical validation of Wagner's law in Nigeria using quarterly data for the period 1982 to 2012. The hypothesis that real income does not Granger-cause government expenditure was rejected. Adopting the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) regression techniques, the study found support for the Wagner's hypothesis in Nigeria. The analysis provided empirical evidence to support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic activity and government expenditure in Nigeria. Overall, the results corroborated the Goffman's version of the Wagner's law in Nigeria. Thus, government needs to create fiscal space to enable deployment of more resources …

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Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya

Economic and Financial Review

The paper adopted the bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag approach to evaluate the impact of gender inequality in education on real productivity in Nigeria using quarterly data from 1985 to 2011. Empirical evidence to establish the rejection of the null hypothesis of no cointegration among the variables was provided . The empirical results suggest that gender inequality in education depresses real productivity, with an output elasticity of -0.1 per cent per quarter. Further empirical evidence indicates that higher school enrolment of males enhances real productivity in Nigeria, while the influence of female school enrolment was not affirmative owing to …

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Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit

Economic and Financial Review

The study employed the Johansen (1988) and the Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate maximum likelihood method within a Vector Autoregressive framework to explore the impact of structural reforms on the level of real output in Nigeria. We fit the equation separately for two sub-samples, the pre-reform and the market-reform periods, to enable comparisons of the outcomes under alternative policy regimes. We further estimate the model using data that covered the entire sample period to evaluate the total effects and include a dummy variable to capture the impact of the policy shift. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run …

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Analysis Of External Debt Dynamics In Ecowas Economies, A. C. Chuku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper recognised the importance of identifying the core determinants of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies. Using a panel dynamic generalised least squares procedure, the study sought to identify the core determinants of external debt dynamics in 12 ECOWAS economies from 1970 to 2009. Overall, the findings revealed six core determinants of external debt in ECOWAS economies. Inflation, external reserves, per capita income and real oil prices were inversely related with external debt ratio; while, GDP gap and real effective exchange rate depreciation directly affected external debt. Significant dissimilarities were observed in the influence of government size and inflation …

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External Reserves Management And Utilization: Nigeria Experience, Emelogu C. Obioma, Abdurrahman Abdullahi

Bullion

The objective of this paper is to appraise developments in external reserves management and utilization in Nigeria, with o view to identifying major challenges and proffering solutions. The paper is divided into six sections. Following this introductory section, section two reviews some of the major conceptual and analytical issues on external reserves management and utilization, while section three discusses Nigeria's external reserves management process. Section four appraises developments in external reserves management and utilization, as well as examines the impact of external reserves on the four sectors of Nigerian economy. Section five highlights major challenges in external reserves management and …

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The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the significance of Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary aggregates in the implementation of monetary policy. The Analytical Balance Sheet and monetary survey are shown to be useful tools in the analysis of monetary and credit developments in the economy. It also discusses the role of the aggregates in monetary policy implementation through the adjusted money multiplier, which explains how policy actions of the CBN influence the broad money supply. Finally, the paper attempts to estimate the Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function for Nigeria using the monetary policy rate and reserve money since December 2006 when the …

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The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study explores the relationship between savings and investment in Nigeria during the period 1980-2011. Unlike previous studies, this study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to test for long run relationship. The short-run dynamics are also captured from error correction model (ECM).The results of the Bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. This result is consistent with a number of earlier studies reviewed in the literature that found saving and investment to be cointegrated in the long run. The results also support the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis that postulates low capital …

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On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Poverty analysis has relied heavily on data in summarized form and this has created dearth of knowledge on the statistical properties of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty indices. This study derived estimators of FGT poverty indices from first principles in an attempt to provide an insight into some intrinsic characteristics of FGT indices. The estimators are found to be reasonably unbiased and consistent. The estimates of the indices obtained from the estimators are approximately 53%, 22% and 12% for the head count, poverty gap and square poverty gap indices. From the conventional method, the estimates are approximately 52%, 21% and 11% respectively. …

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Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

To determine the relative importance of both the domestic and external influences on monetary policy formulation, this paper constructs a broad monetary conditions index for Nigeria. It brings together the three key channels of monetary transmission, namely interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. The result gives dominance to exchange rate channel, followed by credit channel and interest rate channel. The resultant monetary conditions index traces fairly well the policy direction of the Central Bank of Nigeria for the studied period, hence can serve as an adequate gauge of monetary policy stance of the Bank.

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Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the technical efficiency (TE) of two different remote internet access methods, wireless and wired in Nigeria using the stochastic frontier production function analysis. Primary data were obtained through the use of a set of questionnaire from four hundred and fifty representative samples of cyber café operators. The results show that in Nigeria, in spite of the acclaimed superiority of wireless technologies internationally, wired technology (within the context of Nigeria’s socio-economic constraints) is (still) more efficient technically with mean technical efficient indices of 0.914 and 0.797 respectively. The analysis also suggests that age and years of education of …

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Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines exchange–rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange–rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break points. Our results reveal presence of volatility in the three currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. Evaluating the models through standard information criteria, volatility persistence and the log likelihood …

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Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the policy variables money supply and government revenue have more positive impact on price and economic growth in Nigeria specifically in the long run, thus some time with lag. Although monetary and fiscal policy variables have a dominant effect on economic activity, it is clear from this study that economic activity is dominated by its own dynamics in most of …

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The Contribution Of Finance To Agricultural Production In Nigeria, O. M. Mbutor, R. E. Ochu, I. I. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

Several studies have found a positive correlation between agricultural financing and the performance of the agricultural sector. But fewer efforts have been directed at sieving out the agricultural output that is exclusively associated with the extent of funding. This study aimed to ascertain the actual portion of total agricultural output that could be attributed to agricultural financing in Nigeria. The vector error correction methodology was applied following the nature of data properties. The results showed a positive effect of finance on agricultural output. However, variance decomposition revealed the poor state of agricultural financing with a disproportionate dependence of the sector …

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Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper set out to empirically evaluate the effect of deposit money banks' credit on the performance of MSMEs in Nigeria, with the aid of a vector autoregression and error correction mechanism (ECM) technique. Results of the empirical investigation confirmed credit had a positive effect on GDP of MSMEs in Nigeria as the coefficient of CAM (credit to MSMEs) was positive (1.0569) and significant at 1.0 per cent level. It was, therefore, recommended that every effort should be made to improve access to credit by MSMEs, so that they could play their potential roles of employment generation and wealth creation …

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Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan

Bullion

Contrary to the widely held opinion that it is unthinkable that the Nigerian economy would have grown at the rate it did in the last decade and yet the incidence of poverty persisted, even grew higher, growth could actually occur without increasing employment or reducing poverty. This is possible if the economy were allowed to grow without a conscious effort to direct the direction of growth to the policymakers to make concerted efforts to smoothen the path of growth and introduce policies that will make growth pro-poor programmes is the one being currently pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria, …

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A Framework For Oil Price Benchmark Determination: Lessons For Nigeria, Taiwo H. Sanni, Bassey D. Akpan

Bullion

The main thrust of this paper is to draw lessons of experience from other selected oil producing countries. the outcome of the study is expected to help in strengthening Nigeria's oil price framework in line with international best practice. Section 2 dwells on the theoretical and literature review on oil based fiscal rule, while section 3 presents the framework for oil price benchmark determination and section 4 examines those factors capable of stimulating determination of oil price benchmark, lastly section 5 discusses some lessons of experience from Nigeria and then the conclusion.

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How Would Non-Interest Banking Affect The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Yusuf Adamu

Bullion

This article espouses the effectiveness of monetary policy in a dual economic framework (interest bearing/non-interest bearing). In other words it examines how the element non-interest banking when combined with interest bearing framework affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. The use of interest based instruments can effectively be combined with the identified non-interest interest instrument to conduct monetary policy. This article recommend that Nigeria should start thinking towards a policy that takes into account the monetary aggregate instruments as the main tool for executing monetary policy.

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Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo

Bullion

While the short term measures to reduce recurrent expenditure are necessary conditions for fiscal sustainability, the long term imperative is to increase revenue. Thus, efforts should be made by the fiscal authorities in Nigeria to pursue the policy of balancing of expenditure with revenue improvements. The issues of the underperformance of the capital budget should be reversed before savings from cuts in recurrent expenditure can be diverted to the financing of capital expenditure. From the analysis, we say that removal of fuel subsidy would no doubt have some social and economic hardship on the people in the short run, However, …

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Financial Inclusion Initiatives And National Economic Development, Paul N. Eluhaiwe

Bullion

The paper present a clear understanding of the term financial inclusion, its role in economic development, measures being adopted to forge financial inclusion by selected countries and the attempt being made by Nigerian to follow suit. Section two of this paper gives an overview of the concept financial inclusion, section three highlights the difference between financial inclusion and economic development. Section four presents country experiences on financial inclusion followed by highlights of the current state of financial inclusion in Nigeria.

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Core Resources Of Corporate Strategy And Performance-Oriented Bank Management Practice: A Lesson For Nigeria, Andrew O. Agbada

Bullion

In the past three decades, the Nigerian banking industry has suffered from a host of vices namely miss-management, financial misappropriation, administrative recklessness, etcetera, reflecting incompetence on all levels of management and those have had dire consequences in the economy. In an attempt to re-position the industry on the path of performance, different governments in the past took various corrective steps to no avail. Thus this study seeks to explore the Core Resources of Corporate Strategy and Performance-oriented Bank Management best practice with a view to creating sustainable best practices in bank management in Nigeria. The findings from the study are …

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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Keynote Address By Sanusi L. Sanusi, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Economic and Financial Review

Capital Flows, Capital Control And Exchange Rate Regimes, Jonathan A. Aremu

Economic and Financial Review

Domestic Credit Growth And International Capital Flows: Implications For Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

Managing The Downside Risks Of Surging Capital Flows On Financial Stability For Sub-Saharan African Countries, Veronica Kalema

Economic and Financial Review

Policy Space For Capital Controls And Macroeconomic Stability: Lessons From Emerging Economies, Christiana E. E. Okojie

Economic and Financial Review

Coping With Capital Flow Volatility: Policy Consideration For Nigeria, Mike I. Obadan

Economic and Financial Review

Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, Ndubuisi I. Nwokoma

Economic and Financial Review

Empirical Examination Of Foreign Capital Flows And Growth Nexus In Emerging Economies, Bassem Kamar

Economic and Financial Review

Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, I. Nwokoma Ndubisi

Economic and Financial Review

Determinants Of Bilateral Trade Performance Of The Member Countries Of The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), E. Osuji

Economic and Financial Review

Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya

Economic and Financial Review

Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit

Economic and Financial Review

Analysis Of External Debt Dynamics In Ecowas Economies, A. C. Chuku

Economic and Financial Review

External Reserves Management And Utilization: Nigeria Experience, Emelogu C. Obioma, Abdurrahman Abdullahi

Bullion

The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The Contribution Of Finance To Agricultural Production In Nigeria, O. M. Mbutor, R. E. Ochu, I. I. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi

Economic and Financial Review

Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan

Bullion

A Framework For Oil Price Benchmark Determination: Lessons For Nigeria, Taiwo H. Sanni, Bassey D. Akpan

Bullion

How Would Non-Interest Banking Affect The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Yusuf Adamu

Bullion

Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo

Bullion

Financial Inclusion Initiatives And National Economic Development, Paul N. Eluhaiwe

Bullion

Core Resources Of Corporate Strategy And Performance-Oriented Bank Management Practice: A Lesson For Nigeria, Andrew O. Agbada

Bullion