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Articles 1 - 30 of 47
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Journal of New Finance
Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …
Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor
Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor
Economic and Financial Review
The success of monetary policy is substantially predicated on the availability of reliable forecast of inflation. However, the shocks arising from COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought about significant economic uncertainties; thus, necessitating the fine-tuning of existing forecasting models of the Central Bank of Nigeria. This study explores the usefulness of public sentiments obtained using machine learning methods to improve the predictive power of the existing short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF) in Nigeria. Findings indicate that, for all components of inflation, models that include the computed sentiment index perform better in both in-sample and out-sample forecasts than those excluding …
The Impact Of Democracy On Economic Growth In South Asia, Rijul Alvan Das, Siddharth --
The Impact Of Democracy On Economic Growth In South Asia, Rijul Alvan Das, Siddharth --
Undergraduate Economic Review
One of the most fundamental themes that combine the disciplines of political science and economics is the role played by democracy in the economic growth of a country. Does democracy accelerate or hinder growth? The literature is divided on this topic with both sides presenting strong empirical and theoretical views. This paper studies this issue in the context of South Asia. Our theoretical framework brings out the key characteristics that are often highlighted in both sides of the intellectual debate. Using econometric methods and tools such as Pooled, Fixed and Random Effects estimates, we aim to study the relationship between …
Measuring The Impact Of Loan-To-Deposit Ratio (Ldr) On Banks' Liquidity In Nigeria, A. O. Adenuga, J. A. Mohammed, C. V. Laniyan, A. A. Akintola, O. C Asuzu
Measuring The Impact Of Loan-To-Deposit Ratio (Ldr) On Banks' Liquidity In Nigeria, A. O. Adenuga, J. A. Mohammed, C. V. Laniyan, A. A. Akintola, O. C Asuzu
Economic and Financial Review
The study measures the impact of loan to deposit ratio (LDR) on Banks' liquidity in Nigeria between 2000Q1 and 2019Q3. The paper applied the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR-X) methodology for estimation and forecasting. The result suggests that an LDR of 70.0 per cent, which reduces Banks' liquidity from N187.95 billion in 2019Q4, through N153.09 billion in 2020Q2 to close at N135.15 billion in 2020Q4, may require cautious acceptance. Thus, increasing LDR beyond 70.0 per cent may impact Banks' liquidity negatively. Furthermore, a direct relationship is established between LDR and inflation. The findings conform to a priori expectations as higher LDRs …
Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila
Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
It is widely believed that price stability promote long-term economic growth, whereas high inflation is inimical to growth. This paper utilized a quarterly time series data for the period 1981 – 2009 to estimate a threshold level of inflation for Nigeria. Using a threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001), the study estimated a threshold inflation level of 13 per cent for Nigeria. Below the threshold level, inflation has a mild effect on economic activities, while above it, the magnitude of the negative effect of inflation on growth was high. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and …
Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence From Nigeria, J. K. Achua, H. Nagado, I. I. Okafor
Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence From Nigeria, J. K. Achua, H. Nagado, I. I. Okafor
Economic and Financial Review
Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Nigeria? Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) results of Nigerian data, spanning 2005q1-2017q4, indicate that changes in money supply have no long-run significant impact on domestic price level behaviour. The results, however, reveal that non-monetary factors: import, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation expectation, fuel pump price and monetary policy rate significantly upsurge inflationary pressure. Conversely, household income (the shadow of unemployment) significantly dampens inflationary pressure while fiscal deficits moderate the pressure. The findings establish the dominance of structural and fiscal dynamics in the inflation equation of the economy.
Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper estimates a nonlinear augmented New Keynesian Philips Curve for Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation, firms’ marginal cost, and imported inflation account for most of the changes in the prices of composite consumers’ basket in low exchange rate depreciation regime. However, the exchange rate solely explains price changes in the composite consumers’ basket when inflation switches to high regime. Similarly, the results show that regime change in inflation is largely caused by …
Estimation Of Sacrifice Ratio For The Nigerian Economy Using A Time Varying Adrl Approach, E. T. Adamgbe, M. O. Abeng, A. A. Omosola
Estimation Of Sacrifice Ratio For The Nigerian Economy Using A Time Varying Adrl Approach, E. T. Adamgbe, M. O. Abeng, A. A. Omosola
Economic and Financial Review
Monetary policy in the last few decades had focused on creating the enabling conditions for sustainable economic growth, using the level of inflation as the pivotal tool, complemented with central banks’ independence and monetary policy transparency. However, attaining the delicate balance of achieving low inflation and optimal output, with minimal tradeoffs has been a cause for concern for policy makers. Thus, the measurement of the output loss, arising from the inflation-output tradeoff, forms the fulcrum of this study. This study estimates the sacrifice ratio using a state space methodology in an aggregate supply framework to adjust for real business cycle …
The Effect Of Fiscal Transparency On Output, Inflation, And Government Debt, Luce Menicali
The Effect Of Fiscal Transparency On Output, Inflation, And Government Debt, Luce Menicali
Gettysburg Economic Review
This theoretical paper studies the issue of fiscal transparency, which we define as asymmetry of information between the households’ perception of fiscal policy and the actual government balance sheet, in the context of a 24-hour news cycle. We model the economy using the New Keynesian three-equation model to study the effect of fiscal transparency on output, inflation, and especially government debt in order to draw conclusions that are relevant in the realm of policy-making in a sovereign debt crisis scenario. We find that a higher degree of fiscal transparency leads to greater levels of output and inflation as well as …
Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria Today: Issues In Stagflation And Recession, Moses K. Tule
Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria Today: Issues In Stagflation And Recession, Moses K. Tule
Bullion
This article explore the rare and challenging economic problem faced by Nigeria refers to as stagflation. i.e. a condition characterized by the co-existence of declining growth rates along with high unemployment and inflation rates. These negative economic development have raised major concern for policy makers and other economic agents because of the adverse effects on investment, financial stability and livelihood.
Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi
Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi
Economic and Financial Review
The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …
Exchange Rate Management In Period Of Economic Uncertainty, Emmanuel U. Ukeje
Exchange Rate Management In Period Of Economic Uncertainty, Emmanuel U. Ukeje
Bullion
The paper examines current developments in the management of foreign exchange by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the period of economic uncertainty. It explains how the Bank has implemented different regimes of foreign exchange in order to maintain the external value of its currency as well as ensure them.
A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar
A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar
Business Review
Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …
The Nominalistic Principle: A Legal Approach To Inflation, Deflation, Devaluation And Revaluation, Alain H. Sheer
The Nominalistic Principle: A Legal Approach To Inflation, Deflation, Devaluation And Revaluation, Alain H. Sheer
Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law
No abstract provided.
The Impact Of Oil Price On Ghana's Inflation, Albert Mcbell Ninepence
The Impact Of Oil Price On Ghana's Inflation, Albert Mcbell Ninepence
Young African Leaders Journal of Development
World oil price is a momentous determinant of global economic performance. In most cases, when oil prices skyrockets, it leads to a transfer of income from importing countries to exporting countries through trade shifts. The link between oil and inflation is mostly seen as being correlational. The direct relationship between oil and inflation was evident in the 1970’s nevertheless this relationship started to deteriorate after the 1980’s. Quite a cornucopia of researchers have made relentless inquiry on the macroeconomics impact of world oil price shocks and hikes on economic growth and consumer price inflation on importing countries. Also, an infinitesimal …
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that past inflation and average rainfall appeared to have been the main determinants of inflationary process in Nigeria over the study period. We also found strong evidence of the importance of money supply in the inflation process, lending credence to the dominance of the monetarist proposition on inflation dynamics in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended among others, …
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Nigeria. It attempts to test whether the Friedman’s hypothesis – that a rise in the average rate of inflation leads to more uncertainty about future rate of inflation - holds for the country. The monthly inflation data spanning the period 1960:1 to 2014:07 was used. Inflation uncertainty was modeled as a time varying process using a GARCH framework. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) complemented by seasonal ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (0, 0, 1) was employed to model the inflation uncertainty. Given that inflation series display structural breaks, this was …
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …
Openness And Inflation In The Long Run, David Beheshti, Richarch Evans
Openness And Inflation In The Long Run, David Beheshti, Richarch Evans
Journal of Undergraduate Research
Since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods Agreement in 1973, inflation rates have been steadily decreasing in most of the developed world. At the same time, countries have become increasingly open to international trade (see Figure 1). A possible explanation is that openness to trade and inflation are negatively correlated. This relationship is predicted in a highly-cited theoretical model by economist Kenneth Rogoff (1985) and in most of the previous literature on the subject. However, a more recent theoretical paper (Evans 2012) predicts that countries may engage in inflationary policy in order to tax foreign holders of domestic currency. As countries …
What Lies At The Core Of Core Inflation? An Empirical Analysis To Identify The Determinants Of Core Inflation In Pakistan, Mehwish Ghulam Ali, Muhammad Ather Elahi, Qazi Masood Ahmed
What Lies At The Core Of Core Inflation? An Empirical Analysis To Identify The Determinants Of Core Inflation In Pakistan, Mehwish Ghulam Ali, Muhammad Ather Elahi, Qazi Masood Ahmed
Business Review
Core inflation leads to erosion of purchasing power and distorts income distribution in favor of the rich and the creditors. Further, it aggravates poverty due to its regressive effect. By targeting core inflation, the Central Bank attempts to reduce poverty and improve income distribution. The Central Bank does and should target core inflation for the aforementioned objectives, hence it becomes necessary to identify if factors apart from monetary policy affect core inflation. This paper aims to identify the determinants of core inflation in Pakistan. This study is motivated by the lack of work done in identifying the determinants of core …
An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje
Economic and Financial Review
The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,
Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo
Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo
Economic and Financial Review
This paper examined various type and definitions of dollarization, the possibility of dollarization in Nigeria and its effect on economic management. The author emphasized on unofficial dollarization and its benefits and costs.
Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi
Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi
Economic and Financial Review
This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …
The Relationships Of Inflationary Trend, Agricultural Productivity And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Grace Z. Rekwot
The Relationships Of Inflationary Trend, Agricultural Productivity And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Grace Z. Rekwot
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the links existing between inflationary trend, agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1970 to 2011. The results of the analyses indicate a unidirectional causality from inflationary trend to agricultural productivity, unidirectional causality from agricultural productivity to economic growth with no causality between inflationary trend and economic growth. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should pay more attention to the trend of inflation and pursue policies that will ensure single digit inflation.
An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi
An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi
Economic and Financial Review
This study examines the dynamics of inflation in Nigeria, including the structural evolution as well as the direction of its movement with a view to designing appropriate policy measures to rein in the inflationary pressures. The study utilized quarterly data from 1970(1) to 2013 (4) except for Bureau de Change (BDC) premium where the duration was 1991(1) to 2013 (4) based on Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that structural factors like budget deficit, rainfall, variation in export, exchange rate premium have profound influence on movement in CPI in Nigeria during the period.
Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo
Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo
Bullion
While the short term measures to reduce recurrent expenditure are necessary conditions for fiscal sustainability, the long term imperative is to increase revenue. Thus, efforts should be made by the fiscal authorities in Nigeria to pursue the policy of balancing of expenditure with revenue improvements. The issues of the underperformance of the capital budget should be reversed before savings from cuts in recurrent expenditure can be diverted to the financing of capital expenditure. From the analysis, we say that removal of fuel subsidy would no doubt have some social and economic hardship on the people in the short run, However, …
Oil Price Pass-Through Into Inflation: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria, Adeniyi O. Adenuga, Margaret J. Hilili, Osaretin O. Evbuomwan
Oil Price Pass-Through Into Inflation: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria, Adeniyi O. Adenuga, Margaret J. Hilili, Osaretin O. Evbuomwan
Economic and Financial Review
The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the oil price pass-through into inflation in Nigeria in order to suggest appropriate domestic policies necessary to control inflation for the policy makers. The study also attempts to answer questions like: What is the causal links between oil price and inflation in Nigeria? Is oil price highly correlated with inflation? What does the result of an estimation of a Phillips curve tell us about the pass-through for oil in Nigeria. The methodology adopted by the paper is a standard pass-through equation in the form of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model …