Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Work Organization And High-Paying Jobs, Dylan Nelson, Nathan Wilmers, Letian Zhang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

High-paying factory jobs in the 1940s were an engine of egalitarian economic growth for a generation. Are there alternate forms of work organization that deliver similar benefits for frontline workers? Work organization varies by type of complexity and degree of employer control. Technical and tacit knowledge tasks receive higher pay for signaling or developing human capital. Higher-autonomy tasks elicit efficiency wages. To test these ideas, we match administrative earnings to task descriptions from job postings. We then compare earnings for workers hired into the same occupation and firm, but under different task allocations. When jobs raise task complexity and autonomy, …

Predictive Analytics Supporting Labor Market Success: A Career Explorer For Job Seekers And Workforce Professionals In Michigan, Christopher J. O'Leary, Salomon Orellana, Kevin Doyle, Randall W. Eberts, Ben Damerow, Amy Meyers, Kenneth J. Kline, Anna Wilcoxson, Beth C. Truesdale, Scott Powell

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Career Explorer provides customized career exploration tools for workforce development staff and job seekers in Michigan. There are separate Career Explorer modules for mediated staff services and self-service by job seekers. The system was developed by the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics in collaboration with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Michigan Works! Southwest. It was funded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of Workforce Investment and the Schmidt Futures foundation’s Data for the American Dream (D4AD) project. In this paper, we describe specifications of the models behind the frontline-staff-mediated version of Career Explorer, which are …

Centering Work: Integration And Diffusion Of Workforce Development Within The U.S. Manufacturing Extension Network, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Matthew D. Wilson, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

As the U.S. economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies that promote long-term transformation toward high-quality jobs will be critical. This includes workplace-improving interventions that enable employers to upgrade existing jobs, often while enhancing their own competitive position. This paper focuses on the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a national network of federally funded centers that support small and medium-sized manufacturing firms. We document the range of workforce- and workplace-enhancing strategies that MEP centers have adopted since the network’s inception in the mid-1990s. While workforce development is unevenly implemented across today’s MEP network, leading centers within the network are devising transformative strategies …

Using Nonexperimental Methods To Address Noncompliance, Daniel Litwok

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The analysis compares estimates of the incremental impact for those who receive HPOG with a program enhancement to the standard HPOG program. The experimental benchmark for the incremental impact comes from two-stage least squares with random assignment as an instrumental variable for enhancement take-up. Then, ignoring the randomly assigned conditions, the analysis estimates the counterfactual for those who “take up” the enhancement using ordinary least squares and inverse propensity weighting. The analysis also tests whether adding information that is only available due to the experiment—who complied with their randomization status and who did not—improves the nonexperimental estimates. The analysis compares …

Should Place-Based Jobs Policies Be Used To Help Distressed Communities?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Should policymakers seek to increase jobs in particular local labor markets? Yes, but only if these policies are well targeted and designed. Encouraging job growth in distressed places can cause persistent gains in employment-to-population ratios. But our current place-based jobs policies, under which state and local governments provide long-term tax incentives to megacorporations, are poorly targeted and designed. Such incentives are as large in nondistressed areas as in distressed areas, and they are excessively costly. What reforms are needed? First, job growth policies should target distressed areas. Second, tax incentives should be focused on high-multiplier businesses, such as high-tech firms. …

The Occupational Structures Of Low- And High-Wage Service Sector Establishments, Eliza C. Forsythe

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The occupational structure of an establishment provides a description of its production process by detailing the distribution and relative intensity of tasks performed. In this paper, I investigate whether there are substantive differences in the occupational structures of low- and high-wage service sector establishments. I show that low-wage establishments organize production to use less labor in professional occupations compared to high-wage establishments operating in the same local-labor market and industry. In addition, low-wage establishments employ fewer individuals in information technology occupations, employ fewer managers, and have substantially wider supervisory spans of control. These results indicate that, despite operating in the …

Veterans In Workforce Development: Participation And Labor Market Outcomes, Colleen Chrisinger

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper compares the employment status and earnings of veterans and nonveterans following their receipt of public workforce development services in Washington State during the years 2002–2012. It also describes workforce program participation patterns for veterans and nonveterans to determine if veterans have equal or prioritized access to key programs, where prioritization is required by law. Based on tabulations and propensity score weighted regressions using administrative data, the results indicate slightly lower levels of participation by veterans than nonveterans in two major workforce programs (Wagner-Peyser and the Workforce Investment Act Adult program), and high participation in veteran-specific programs (Disabled Veterans …

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.

Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …

A Methodology For Setting State And Local Regression-Adjusted Performance Targets For Workforce Investment Act Programs, Randall W. Eberts, Wei-Jang Huang, Jing Cai

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Beginning with PY2009, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA) adopted a regression-adjusted approach for setting national targets for several federal workforce development programs, including WIA Adult, Dislocated Worker, and Youth programs. Prior to that time, national targets were based on past performance and the desire to encourage continuous improvement in the workforce programs. The continuous improvement approach typically increased target levels from year to year without a systematic way of accounting for changes in economic conditions or the ability to meet previous targets. The onset of the 2007–2009 recession drew into question this practice, and the …

Return On Investment In Workforce Development Programs, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Under more and more fiscal scrutiny because of shrinking state and local budgets, workforce development programs are being asked to estimate their return on investment (ROI). This paper introduces basic concepts of ROI in workforce development programs. It distinguishes ROIs estimated for workforce programs from those that are estimated for financial investments or capital projects. The paper furthermore exposits the basic ingredients of an ROI study—identification of the treatment and time periods of analysis, identification of the net impacts of the program, and identification of net costs. Finally, the paper presents results from the estimation of the ROI for postsecondary …

The Secular Rise In Unemployment Insurance Exhaustions And What Can Be Done About It, Ralph E. Smith

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Over the past several decades, the rate at which regular unemployment insurance recipients run out of benefits before they have found jobs, even in a strong labor market, has been gradually rising. For example, in 1973, 27.4 percent of UI recipients exhausted their benefits; in 2007 (with a similar unemployment rate) 35.6 percent exhausted. This paper documents the increase in the exhaustion rate, along with the parallel rise in long-term unemployment; examines the consequences; and reviews what has been learned about the efficacy of various approaches for reversing, or at least halting, the trend.

The research on the rise in …

Policies For Displaced Workers: An American Perspective, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

American employment policy for displaced workers started in the Great Depression with programs for the employment service, unemployment insurance, work experience, and direct job creation. Assistance for workers displaced by foreign competition emerged in the 1960s along with formalized programs for occupational job skill training. The policy focus on displaced workers was sharpened in the 1980s through the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act and the Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment Assistance Act. Field experiments on services to dislocated workers led to Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems in all states, and federal rules adopted as part of the North …

What Should Michigan Be Doing To Promote Long-Run Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper argues that Michigan can take cost-effective actions to significantly improve the primary state economic development goal: higher per capita income of Michigan's residents. Higher per capita income of Michigan's residents can be achieved through state policy actions that use cost-effective means to either lower the marginal costs of businesses that expand in the state, or boost the skills of state residents. In this paper, I offer eight ideas for how to lower marginal business costs and boost skills. Four of these ideas focus on lowering marginal business costs. Four other ideas focus on boosting skills. For each of …

Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines labor market conditions and public employment policies in the United States during what some are calling the Great Recession. We document the dramatic labor market changes that rapidly unfolded when the rate of gross domestic product growth turned negative, from the end of 2007 through early 2009. The paper reviews the resulting stress on labor market support programs and the broad federal response. That response came through modifications to existing programs and the introduction of new mechanisms to help Americans cope with job loss and protracted unemployment. The particular focus is on federally supported public programs for …

Methodology For Adjusting Gpra Workforce Development Program Performance Targets For The Effects Of Business Cycles, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts, Wei-Jang Huang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration issued Training and Employment Guidance Letter (TEGL) 09-08 Change 1 on June 5, 2009. This guidance letter revises the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measures for federal workforce development programs to take into account the effect of the recession on participants' labor market and educational outcomes. As described in the TEGL, the performance targets of the various workforce development programs have been developed for use for the years PY2008 through PY2010. They are intended to be used for PY2009 performance target negotiations and will appear in the President's Budget …

Lessons Learned From A State-Funded Workplace Literacy Program, Kevin M. Hollenbeck, Bridget F. Timmeney

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Findings from an evaluation of a workplace literacy program funded by the State of Indiana are presented. Working with employers, providers were given considerable latitude to design their own training regimens. The state awarded certificates to workers who achieved certain levels of proficiency in reading, math, critical thinking, problem solving (assessed by CASAS), and computer literacy (certified by IC3). The evaluation relied on qualitative and quantitative data. Multiple site visits were undertaken and a survey of participants (n = 1800), learning gains, and earnings histories were quantitatively analyzed. Key findings include a significant interest in college attendance by incumbent workers, …

What Proportion Of Children Stay In The Same Location As Adults, And How Does This Vary Across Location And Groups?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper provides new information on what proportion of individuals spend their adult work lives in their childhood metropolitan area or state. I also examine how this proportion varies across different demographic groups, and with the size and growth rate of the metropolitan area. I find that the proportion of individuals who spend most of their adulthood in their childhood metropolitan area is surprisingly high. Furthermore, this proportion does not go down as much as one might think for smaller or slower-growing metropolitan areas, or for college-educated persons. These findings imply that state and local investments in children may pay …

Estimating A Performance Standards Adjustment Model For Workforce Programs That Provides Timely Feedback And Uses Data From Only One State, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology for adjusting performance standards for workforce programs offered by local workforce areas (LWAs). By performance standards adjustment, we mean a model that uses a statistical approach to attempt to better measure the relative performance of different local workforce areas in providing workforce system customers with "value added" in terms of the system's desired outcomes. Our paper's approach has four distinguishing features. First, the performance standards are based on the common measures proposed by the U.S. Department of Labor, which include short- and longer-term employment outcomes. Second, the model is estimated …

Sensitivity Testing Of Net Impact Estimates Of Workforce Development Programs Using Administrative Data, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper addresses the question of whether administrative data sources, such as performance monitoring data, can be used for program evaluation purposes. It argues that under certain circumstances, such data can be used. In particular, program performance data that are routinely gathered and monitored by administrators of many workforce development programs meet these circumstances. The paper goes on to demonstrate the point by using administrative data from the state of Washington to examine the net impact on earnings and employment of services provided to adults under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA). Because of a lack of consensus about appropriate net …

Is There A Role For Public Support Of Incumbent Worker On-The-Job Training?, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

States have begun to use training subsidies as a policy tool for employment retention and business competitiveness. This paper summarizes a survey of states concerning their investments in incumbent worker training. Altogether, states are investing about $550 to $800 million, which is perhaps one percent or less of total private sector training costs. The paper further discusses a study conducted for one state in which we found significant fiscal returns implying that underinvestment of public funds for incumbent worker training may be occurring. In this state, primary sector jobs were created or retained at a public cost of less than …

Temporary Help Service Firms' Use Of Employer Tax Credits: Implications For Disadvantaged Workers' Labor Market Outcomes, Sarah Hamersma, Carolyn J. Heinrich

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Temporary help services (THS) firms are increasing their hiring of disadvantaged individuals and claiming more subsidies for doing so. Do these subsidies-the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) and Welfare-to-Work Tax Credit (WtW)-create incentives that improve employment outcomes for THS workers? We examine the distinct effects of THS employment and WOTC/WtW subsidies using administrative and survey data. Results indicate that WOTC/WtW-certified THS workers have higher earnings than WOTC-eligible but uncertified THS workers. However, these workers have shorter job tenure and lower earnings than WOTC/WtW-certified workers in non-THS industries. Panel estimates suggest that these effects do not persist over time.

Temporary Agency Employment As A Way Out Of Poverty?, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The high incidence of temporary agency employment among participants in government employment programs has catalyzed debate about whether these jobs help the poor transition into stable employment and out of poverty. We provide direct evidence on this question through analysis of a Michigan welfare-to-work program in which program participants were randomly allocated across service providers ('contractors') with different job placement practices. We draw on a telephone survey of contractors and on administrative program data linked with wage records data on all participants entering the program over a three-and-a half-year period. Our survey evidence documents a consensus among contractors that temporary …

Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper summarizes state unemployment insurance job search policies based on a recent survey of states by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. It then reviews research results on the effects of reemployment services on durations of insured unemployment. The paper documents how state administrative practices have changed and questions whether these changes may have affected monitoring of claimant compliance with work search requirements. Since state policies on job search and service referral can affect insured durations of unemployment, these policies can also affect the measured total unemployment rate.

Evaluating Job Training In Two Chinese Cities, Benu Bidani, Chor-Ching Goh, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent years have seen a surge in the evidence on the impacts of active labor market programs for numerous countries. However, little evidence has been presented on the effectiveness of such programs in China. Recent economic reforms, associated massive lay-offs, and accompanying public retraining programs make China fertile ground for rigorous impact evaluations. This study evaluates retraining programs for laid-off workers in the cities of Shenyang and Wuhan using a comparison group design. To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of its kind in China. The evidence suggests that retraining helped workers find jobs in Wuhan, but had little …

Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help The Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence From Russia, Anton Nivorozhkin, Eugenity Nivorozhkin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The study estimates the employment effect of vocational training programs for the unemployed in urban Russia. The results of propensity score matching indicate that training programs had a non-negative overall effect on the program participants relative to non-participants.

Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes For Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence From Random Assignments, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

A disproportionate share of low-skilled U.S. workers is employed by temporary help firms. These firms offer rapid entry into paid employment, but temporary help jobs are typically brief and it is unknown whether they foster longer-term employment. We draw upon an unusual, large-scale policy experiment in the state of Michigan to evaluate whether holding temporary help jobs facilitates labor market advancement for low-skilled workers. To identify these effects, we exploit the random assignment of welfare-to-work clients across numerous welfare service providers in a major metropolitan area. These providers feature substantially different placement rates at temporary help jobs but offer otherwise …

Some Reflections On The Use Of Administrative Data To Estimate The Net Impacts Of Workforce Programs In Washington State, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the results, methodology, and processes used in a series of net labor market impact studies done for the State of Washington over the past six years. All of the studies relied on administrative data and used a technique referred to as quasi-experimental evaluation. The program interventions were the federal- and state-funded workforce development programs. The paper sets out eight "reflections" for analysts and policy makers to consider. These reflections identify lessons learned and uncertainties or issues that need more consideration and scrutiny.

Using Administrative Data For Workforce Development Program Evaluation, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper addresses the question of whether administrative data that are collected for performance monitoring purposes can be used for program evaluation. It argues that under certain circumstances, such data can be used. In particular, data from the state of Washington are used to examine the effectiveness of services provided to adults under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA). The general theme of an emerging literature on techniques for nonexperimental evaluations of social programs is that many different techniques have appropriate asymptotic properties. A contribution of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of net impact estimators to various estimation techniques. …

Personal Reemployment Accounts: Simulations For Planning Implementation, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The proposed Back to Work Incentive Act of 2003 recommended personal reemployment accounts (PRAs) that would provide each eligible unemployment insurance (UI) claimant with a special account of up to 3,000 [dollars] to finance reemployment activities. Account funds could be used to purchase intensive, supportive, and job training services. Any funds remaining in the PRA could be paid as a cash bonus for reemployment within 13 weeks, or drawn as extended income maintenance for exhaustees of regular UI benefits. Personal reemployment account offers would be targeted to UI beneficiaries most likely to exhaust their UI entitlements using state Worker Profiling …