Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz

Theses and Dissertations

Conflict has sadly been a constant part of history. Winning a conflict and making a lasting peace are often not the same thing. While a peace treaty ends a conflict and often dictates terms from the winners’ perspective, it may not create a lasting peace. Short of unconditional surrender, modern conflict ends with a negotiated cessation of hostilities. Such accords may have some initial reconstruction agreements, but Reconciliation, Restoration and Reconstruction (RRR) is a long term process. This study maintains that to achieve a lasting peace: 1) The culture and beliefs of the conflict nation must be continuously considered and …

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios, Andrew E. Pekarek

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of research on covert networks uses social network analysis (SNA) to determine critical members of the network to either kill or capture for the purpose of network destabilization. This thesis takes the opposite approach and evaluates potential scenarios for inserting an agent into a covert network for information gathering purposes or future disruption operations. Due to the substantial number of potential insertion scenarios in a large network, this research proposes three screening heuristics that leverage SNA measures to reduce the solution space before applying a simple search heuristic.

Equilibrium Modeling And Policy Analysis Of A Biofuel Supply Chain With A Hydroelectric Reservoir, Jinwoo Bae

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposesd a game theoretic model of a biofuel supply chain (BSC) where a utility company supplies reservoir water to two farmers, located in downstream and upstream of a hydropower dam. The decision-making process of the model is formulated as a three-stage Stackelberg game. We analyze the equilibrium of the decentralized systems and the effect of the government subsidy on energy crop (switchgrass) production for cellulosic biofuel industries, with two forms of subsidy: (1) discriminated subsidies and (2) equalized subsidies.

The results show that both forms of subsidy improve social welfare in the BSC unless the amount of subsidy …

Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …

Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer

Theses and Dissertations

Opinion dynamics is the study of how opinions in a group of individuals change over time. A goal of opinion dynamics modelers has long been to find a social science-based model that generates strong diversity -- smooth, stable, possibly multi-modal distributions of opinions. This research lays the foundations for and develops such a model. First, a taxonomy is developed to precisely describe agent schedules in an opinion dynamics model. The importance of scheduling is shown with applications to generalized forms of two models. Next, the meta-contrast influence field (MIF) model is defined. It is rooted in self-categorization theory and improves …

Using Mavt To Incorporate Public Perception When Choosing A Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Stephen Clement

Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is …

Operations Research Modeling Of Cyclic Train Timetabling, Cyclic Train Platforming, And Bus Routing Problems, Mojtaba Heydar

Theses and Dissertations

Public transportation or mass transit involves the movement of large numbers of people between a given numbers of locations. The services provided by this system can be classified into three groups: (i) short haul: a low-speed service within small areas with high population; (ii) city transit: transporting people within a city; and (iii) long haul: a service with long trips, few stops, and high speed (Khisty and Lall, 2003). It can be also classified based on local and express services. The public transportation planning includes five consecutive steps: (i) the network design and route design; (ii) the setting frequencies or …

Analysis Of Army Transformation And The Effects On Customer Ordering Behavior, Joseph M. Colacicco

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Army began a major force transformation in 2003, which required a significant shift in logistics support constructs. This thesis provides an in-process review of the effects of the current transformation efforts on supply effectiveness and attempts to determine factors that influence customer ordering behavior. Specifically, the thesis sought to answer three subproblems addressing the effect of transformation on supply effectiveness, the correlation of supply effectiveness metrics to customer ordering behavior, and other potential sources of variance in ordering behavior. The subproblems were answered through an examination of the supply document histories of two Brigades, one legacy Brigade …

A Layered Social And Operational Network Analysis, Jennifer L. Geffre

Theses and Dissertations

To provide maximal disruption to a clandestine/terrorist network's ability to conduct missions, we must develop a means to determine the individuals' importance to the network and operations. In a network centric world, this importance is represented as an additive value of their criticality across the convergence of multiple layers of network connections. The connections layers of the network are comprised of social layers (Acquaintance, Friendship, Nuclear Family, Relatives, Student-Teacher, and Religious Mentors, Reverent Power and others), as well as layers representing interactions involving Resources, Knowledge/Skills and Temporal Local. The social criticality of an individual is measured by centrality. Event Trees …

Examining Clandestine Social Networks For The Presence Of Non-Random Structure, Joshua S. Seder

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a tractable, statistically sound hypothesis testing framework for the detection, characterization, and estimation of non-random structure in clandestine social networks. Network structure is studied via an observed adjacency matrix, which is assumed to be subject to sampling variability. The vertex set of the network is partitioned into k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subsets, based on available exogenous nodal attribute information. The proposed hypothesis testing framework is employed to statistically quantify a given partition's relativity in explaining the variability in the observed adjacency matrix relative to what can be explained by chance. As a result, valuable insight …

Approximate Analysis Of An Unreliable M/M/2 Retrial Queue, Brian P. Crawford

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the performance evaluation of an M/M/2 retrial queue for which both servers are subject to active and idle breakdowns. Customers may abandon service requests if they are blocked from service upon arrival, or if their service is interrupted by a server failure. Customers choosing to remain in the system enter a retrial orbit for a random amount of time before attempting to re-access an available server. We assume that each server has its own dedicated repair person, and repairs begin immediately following a failure. Interfailure times, repair times and times between retrials are exponentially distributed, and all …

Critical Infrastructure Rebuild Prioritization Using Simulation Optimization, Namsuk Cho

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the importance of a critical infrastructure rebuild strategy following a terrorist attack or natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina. Critical infrastructures are very complex and dependent systems in which their re-establishment is an essential part of the rebuilding process. A rebuild simulation model consisting of three layers (physical, information, and spatial) captures the dependency between the six critical infrastructures modeled. We employ a simulation optimization approach to evaluate rebuild prioritization combinations with a goal of minimizing the time needed to achieve an acceptable rebuild level. We use a simulated annealing heuristic as an optimization technique that works …

Planning And Assessing Stability Operations: A Proposed Value-Focused Thinking Approach, Gerald D. Fensterer

Theses and Dissertations

Stability operations are vital to establish peace in the aftermath of conflict. The United States is often called in for military support during conflict. The new American military paradigms include establishing peace through stability operations after a military conflict. Due to this new role, military decision makers face many difficulties in conducting successful stability operations. Compounding this problem is the limited number of resources pertaining to stability operations: experts, doctrine, knowledge, and technology. Two overarching challenges of stability operations facing decision makers are planning and prioritizing of stability operations and determining progress. This thesis applies a structured analytical approach to …

Modeling Network Centric Warfare (Ncw) With The System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (Seas), Jason B. Honabarger

Theses and Dissertations

Significant technological advances over the past few decades have fueled the continual and rapid development of an information-based world. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) has become the buzzword of the young millennium within the Department of Defense (DoD) and is quickly becoming a popularly shared vision and rallying cry for force transformation among United States military leaders. An essential element in fully implementing this network-centric way of thinking is to develop useful measures to help gauge the effectiveness and efficiency of both our military networks and our strategic NCW doctrine. The goal of this research is first to provide a comprehensive …

A Methodology For Performing Effects-Based Assessments, Benjamin A. Thoele

Theses and Dissertations

In order to bring the doctrine of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) into a fully operational capability, Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) must provide relevant insight to the commander and his planning staff. Assessments of an effects-based plan and execution must include an assessment of the effects of a campaign on the enemy in addition to an assessment of the accomplishment of friendly actions taken to achieve the desired effects. Determining the effects of a campaign requires an analysis of the dynamics of the enemy systems. EBA must be able to recognize the states of the enemy's systems as the system states change over …

An Epidemiological Approach To Terrorism, Kjirstin A. Bentson

Theses and Dissertations

There are many types of models for counterterrorism, explaining different problems that the military faces in the fight against terrorism. This thesis proposes that one of the fundamental assumptions underlying existing models of counterterrorism is that the struggle with terrorists can be understood as a war in the traditional sense of the term. We propose to rethink the struggle against terrorism as a fight against an infection. The epidemic of terrorist ideology within part of the world is a result, from this perspective, of the infectiousness of that ideology. Using the insights of the field of the epidemiology of ideas, …

Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis To Support The Global War On Terrorism Using A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Marykathryn W. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has yielded new challenges to the United States' strategic airlift infrastructure. The network of en-route airfields that serve as refueling and maintenance stops were designed primarily to service relatively static Cold War requirements. However, the GWOT has resulted in the need for an infrastructure that is responsive to a highly dynamic environment. This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability to volatile cargo delivery requirements.

Modeling And Analysis Of Clandestine Networks, Clinton R. Clark

Theses and Dissertations

Since Sept. 11, 2001, there has been great interest in the military and intelligence communities in using Social Network Analysis (SNA) to support the disruption and destruction of global terrorist networks. SNA results, however, tend to be descriptive and are limited due to the lack of advantageous properties of the relationship measures applied to the arcs in a social network. Further, SNA techniques generally focus on a single network context while real relationships are based in multiple contexts. This thesis develops a new proxy measure of pair-wise potential influence between members of a network, a Holistic Interpersonal Influence Measure (HIIM). …

Modeling And Analysis Of Post-Conflict Reconstruction, Damon B. Richardson

Theses and Dissertations

The forces at play in reconstruction operations are a complex system of time phased interlocking cause and effect relationships that are not thoroughly understood. A model capable of capturing the general dynamics involved in post-conflict reconstruction would provide insight to decision makers regarding potential policy alternatives. This research effort demonstrates the viability of using systems dynamics modeling techniques to simulate the establishment of public order and safety in a post-conflict reconstruction operation (Phase IV operations). A high level generic framework is developed that can be used as a general template for modeling post-conflict reconstruction. It is then demonstrated with a …

Modeling And Simulation Of The Military Intelligence Process, Carl R. Pawling

Theses and Dissertations

There is concern within U.S. space and intelligence organizations that the current Tasking, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination processes may be insufficient to support current and future Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance systems. As part of a larger intelligence process, more detailed analysis becomes critical to determine what portions need to be improved. This analysis can be accomplished by simulation, which is appropriate due to the complexity of the process and the ability to compare variations in the process. We construct a high level model of a generalized military intelligence process based in part on the Intelligence Cycle outlined in Joint Publications. …

An Analysis Of Multiple Layered Networks, Kevin T. Kennedy

Theses and Dissertations

Current infrastructure network models of single functionality do not typically account for the interdependent nature of infrastructure networks. Infrastructure networks are generally modeled individually, as an isolated network or with minimal recognition of interactions. This research develops a methodology to model the individual infrastructure network types while explicitly modeling their interconnected effects. The result is a formulation built with two sets of variables (the original set to model infrastructure characteristics and an additional set representing cuts of interdependent elements). This formulation is decomposed by variable type using Benders Partitioning and solved to optimality using a Benders Partitioning algorithm. Current infrastructure …

A Combined Adaptive Tabu Search And Set Partitioning Approach For The Crew Scheduling Problem With An Air Tanker Crew Application, Todd E. Combs

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops the first metaheuristic approach to the complete air crew scheduling problem. It develops the first dynamic, integrated, set-partitioning based vocabulary scheme for metaheuristic search. Since no benchmark flight schedules exist for the tanker crew scheduling problem, this research defines and develops a Java™ based flight schedule generator. The robustness of the tabu search algorithms is judged by testing them using designed experiments. An integer program is developed to calculate lower bounds for the tanker crew scheduling problem objectives and to measure the overall quality of solutions produced by the developed algorithms.

Robustness Of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions, William K. Klimack

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigated value and utility functions in multiobjective decision analysis to examine the relationship between them in a military decision making context. The impact of these differences was examined to improve implementation efficiency. The robustness of the decision model was examined with respect to the preference functions to reduce the time burden imposed on the decision maker. Data for decision making in a military context supports the distinction between value and utility functions. Relationships between value and utility functions and risk attitudes were found to be complex. Elicitation error was significantly smaller than the difference between value and utility …

Modeling And Analysis Of Social Networks, Robert S. Renfro Ii

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. …

An Incentive Model For International Telecommunications, Jeffrey R. Del Vecchio

Theses and Dissertations

This study developed a new defensive model for global voice communications. It uses a n-person, zero-sum, cooperative and non-cooperative game to optimize the coalitions revenue after the possibility of a network service provider being tampered by an adversary. This research optimized two measures of effectiveness (coalition revenue and network provider revenue) of international telecommunications coalitions by hardening network service providers and improving their respective revenue with incentives. A multi-criteria optimization problem was developed to establish the strategic competition between the coalition defender and attacker. Irrespective of the amount of incentives, a applicable hardening and tampering strategy can be obtained. All …

A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation …

An Analysis Of Air Force Acquisition Engineering Officer's Perceptions Of The Adequacy Of Their Preparation For Management, Steven E. Woodruff

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to determine how much time Air Force acquisition engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers perceive their management training, and which types of training contribute the most to managerial competency. The results from surveys of 215 acquisition engineers assigned to ASCEN, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and their supervisors revealed that engineers do indeed spend substantial amounts of time performing management functions. Slightly more than half the engineers reported spending at least 50 of an average workday performing management functions. Over 53 of engineers responding to …