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Nominal Gdp Versus Price Level Targeting: An Empirical Evaluation, James S. Fackler, W. Douglas Mcmillin

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

In response to the ongoing discussion in the literature of the appropriate framework for monetary policy, we compare two of the most frequently discussed alternatives to inflation targeting—targeting either the level of nominal GDP or the price level—within the context of a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Our approach can be considered a constrained-discretion approach. The model is estimated using quarterly data over the period 1979:4-2003:4, a period in which the economy was buffeted by substantial supply and demand shocks. The paths of the federal funds rate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and the price level under nominal GDP and price …