Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Measuring Religious Demographic Group Threat Among Americans And Its Impacts On Their Political Beliefs, Karsen Bailey

Honors Theses

Identity is one of the key drivers of American political behavior. Among these identities, be it partisan, ethnic, class, etc., religious identity has been more or less assumed to be one of the more powerful identities. I set out to measure how the threat of Christianity’s decline in the United States impacts the salience of religious identity and feelings towards religion-adjacent policies. Building off of an experimental design from Major et al (2016), I hypothesized that when exposed to data showing the decline of religiosity in the United States, subjects would demonstrate both a stronger religious identity and more conservative …

Demographics As Destiny: Modeling Population Change And Party Strategies On The Electoral Map, 2016-2040, Sam Parker

Honors Theses

This thesis examines the ways demographic change will affect presidential elections over the next 25 years. It utilizes a detailed, interactive model to project the electoral effects of demographic growth in every presidential election from 2016 to 2040; the model allows me to simulate how voting rates by demographic groups might be altered by changes in party strategies. The two alternative Republican strategies this model simulates are a "doubling down" on white voters and a "diversified coalition" approach, where Republicans would reach out to minorities to build a coalition better suited to America's growing diversity.

The model's results indicate that, …

The Origins Of Wave Elections: Narrative Control Polarization And Turnout In New Hampshire Electoral Politics 2006-2012, Zachary Jonas

Honors Theses

This thesis investigates the origin of wave elections in New Hampshire in 2006, 2010 and 2012. It finds that recent demographic shifts in the state laid the groundwork for these dramatic electoral results. This paper also examines the nationalization and polarization that have redefined New Hampshire’s political landscape and contributed to massive partisan shifts in state government. The combination of demographic changes and a polarized political culture have created an electoral environment for both Republicans and Democrats that favors turnout, increasing the importance of agenda setting and narrative control in order to produce high turnout among core constituencies. Chapter 1 …