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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Recent empirical studies suggest insurgencies may be accurately described by aggregated extrapolation models, such that past behavior becomes the best predictor for future action. I argue that aggregated extrapolation models possess two flaws that make it a poor choice for examining insurgencies. First, aggregated extrapolation models ask the wrong question. The more interesting question is to ask when present action is no longer explainable by past behavior. Secondly, aggregate models mask changes that a phenomenon undergoes over time which are only revealed upon disaggregating the data. Starting with a model and findings provided by Neil Johnson, I use casualty data …
Incumbent Violence And Insurgent Tactics: The Effects Of Incumbent Violence On Popular Support For Guerrilla Warfare And Terrorism, Jonathan Williams
Incumbent Violence And Insurgent Tactics: The Effects Of Incumbent Violence On Popular Support For Guerrilla Warfare And Terrorism, Jonathan Williams
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Insurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in particular by creating outbidding incentives and desires to respond in kind to civilian deaths and as a way of punishing norm violations against attacking civilians …
Governmental Responses To Terrorism: Creating Costs And Benefits, Kenneth Klose
Governmental Responses To Terrorism: Creating Costs And Benefits, Kenneth Klose
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unless responses reduce an organization’s capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of government action on terrorism in Algeria and the Philippines. In general, the results show that conciliation may led to increases in terrorism in the short …