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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Rebel Leaders And Conflict Processes: An Individual Level Analysis, Serhan Yalciner
Rebel Leaders And Conflict Processes: An Individual Level Analysis, Serhan Yalciner
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Civil conflict is a complex and ambiguous phenomenon that requires a multi-dimensional investigation. A concentration on rebel leaders in the study of conflict promises a good amount of potential for obtaining interesting findings. This dissertation examines rebel leader survival and rebel leaders’ influence on various conflict processes. It demonstrates that relative rebel strength, external support favoring the government, and oil production of the state have a significant impact on rebel leader tenure. To explain why we observe some considerable increases in the number of civilian killings in the course of conflict, the dissertation develops a theoretical model, putting the emphasis …
The Effects Of State Leader Psychology On Civil War Lethality, Brandon Kelley
The Effects Of State Leader Psychology On Civil War Lethality, Brandon Kelley
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Does a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits and operational code indices, specifically direction of strategy (I1) and interpretation of the nature of the political universe (P1). The data and cases used are pulled from datasets by …
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Recent empirical studies suggest insurgencies may be accurately described by aggregated extrapolation models, such that past behavior becomes the best predictor for future action. I argue that aggregated extrapolation models possess two flaws that make it a poor choice for examining insurgencies. First, aggregated extrapolation models ask the wrong question. The more interesting question is to ask when present action is no longer explainable by past behavior. Secondly, aggregate models mask changes that a phenomenon undergoes over time which are only revealed upon disaggregating the data. Starting with a model and findings provided by Neil Johnson, I use casualty data …
Incumbent Violence And Insurgent Tactics: The Effects Of Incumbent Violence On Popular Support For Guerrilla Warfare And Terrorism, Jonathan Williams
Incumbent Violence And Insurgent Tactics: The Effects Of Incumbent Violence On Popular Support For Guerrilla Warfare And Terrorism, Jonathan Williams
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Insurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in particular by creating outbidding incentives and desires to respond in kind to civilian deaths and as a way of punishing norm violations against attacking civilians …
The Use Of English-Language Internet Propaganda By The Taliban Insurgency In Afghanistan, 2007–2010, Matthew T. Calvin
The Use Of English-Language Internet Propaganda By The Taliban Insurgency In Afghanistan, 2007–2010, Matthew T. Calvin
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
After nearly a decade of war in Afghanistan, military and government officials have described the propaganda efforts of the Taliban insurgency as increasingly sophisticated and effective. These statements fail to distinguish between insurgent propaganda efforts at the local level and those carried out online and targeted at Western populations. This research investigates the effectiveness of the Taliban's use of English-language media to reach Western populations and shape their own image in a way that furthers their strategic objectives. An analytical approach that combines quantitative analysis performed on a set of Taliban messages from 2007 to 2010 and a deeper, qualitative …