Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

How American Transit Agencies Determine Fare Policy: It All Comes Down To Politics, Julian Thesseling

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will provide readers with an understanding of the variables that US transit agencies grapple with when developing fare policy, with a particular focus on the political process. The framework chapter will examine the objectives of public transportation and how agencies face difficulties in achieving these objectives. While this paper will focus on American transportation policy, the framework will draw from the experiences of cities across the world. Three case study chapters will then each discuss an American city or region’s approach to fare policy, and how variables have either complicated or enhanced agencies’ ability to develop effective fare …

The Motherhood Wage Penalty: New Evidence On Long-Run Effects And Group Heterogeneity, Vera Kratz

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to establish the magnitude of the long-run motherhood wage penalty. Using data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I examine the difference between the real hourly wages of mothers and non-mothers in the long run. By comparing mothers to not-yet-mothers as well as never-mothers, I am able to better isolate the true wage penalty mothers face. My findings indicate that 21 to 25 years after the birth of their first child, mothers face a 31.75 percentage point wage penalty compared to non-mothers. In addition, I examine differences in the wage penalties of mothers by marital …

Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell

CMC Senior Theses

The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …

Comparative Analysis Of Racist Implications Of The Welfare State In The U.S. Vs. U.K. Through Child Benefits, Furaha Njoroge

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores America’s narratives surrounding safety net, varying history of child benefits and welfare between the U.S and U.K., newfound research regarding England’s programs, implicit bias, and interviews and scholarly reports of relevant experts. By comparing the welfare states of both the U.S and the U.K, it is proven how racism is both deeply rooted in how citizens of both countries perceive safety nets, and has thus led to the exclusion of racial minorities in both welfare systems. Specifically, looking at child benefits, we can determine these negative impacts and policies erected which further oppress Black Americans, the Black …

The Politicization And Polarization Of Climate Change, Williamson Grassle

CMC Senior Theses

In the mid to late 20th-century, climate change and other environmental issues were addressed on a bipartisan basis, with Republican politicians like President Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush supporting and advancing measures to combat climate change. However, since the 1990s, climate change has become increasingly polarized, with significant polarization in the last decade. This paper dives into the causes behind climate change's politicization and polarization and what the future holds for bipartisan agreement by analyzing peer-reviewed articles, campaign contributions, news stories, political archives, and past interviews with climate experts. The analysis finds that the polarization has been driven by …

Climate Change In Fiction: The Evolution And Challenges Of Environmental Apocalyptic Literature, Lauren Gode

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the several aspects and variations of environmental apocalyptic literature, and its potential ability to mobilize action against the imminent threat of global climate change. It delves into the intersection between climate research and fiction, as well as the rhetorical techniques used in works such as The Death of Grass by John Christopher, The Drowned World by J.G. Ballard, Oryx and Crake by Margaret Atwood, and The Road by Cormac McCarthy, and covers the complementarity between climate fiction and works of non-fiction such as The Great Derangement by Amitav Ghosh. Finally, this thesis will assess the effectiveness of …

Asian American Voting During The 2020 Elections: A Rising, Divided Voting Group, Vi Nguyen

CMC Senior Theses

Asian Americans continue to be an untapped force within American politics. Despite their status as the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the United States they have had surprisingly low political participation rates.[1] But 2020 represented a watershed moment. Campaign outreach and voter participation increased, and Asian Americans assumed new prominence on the national stage. Nonetheless, the 2020 elections also demonstrate historical divides within the community and a lack of cohesion as a voting group.

This thesis investigates Asian American voter behavior during the 2020 election and links trends within this year's elections to assess Asian American panethnicity. It …

How To Increase Elaboration Levels: An Adapted Elaboration Likelihood Model, Alex Mcdonald

CMC Senior Theses

Persuasion is a topic that has been debated for centuries, yet scientific literature surrounding the topic has been almost non-existent until 50 years ago. A popular persuasion model thus far, the Elaboration Likelihood Model, provides a framework for studying persuasion but lacks ease of application. I suggest an improvement to the model by including self-referencing and interaction to clarify how to apply the research and provide a real-world application with this adapted model.

Making The Connections: Gender Quotas, Representation, And Critical Mass In Latin America, Katherine O'Neill

CMC Senior Theses

Using Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico as case studies, this paper examines how women’s collaboration influences the effects of gender quotas on women’s representation. The efficacy of gender quotas in increasing the numerical representation of women and improving gender equality outcomes is well-researched, but questions remain about the precise linkages between the numerical representation of women and the substantive representation of women. This thesis analyzes previously identified linkages alongside actions by women’s organizations in national legislatures and civil society to better understand women’s roles as critical actors in making gender quotas successful. The findings suggest that women’s collaboration is crucial …

Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

Great Power Politics: The United States’ War On Disinformation With Consideration To Russian And Chinese Offensive Efforts, Jordan Venglass

CMC Senior Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the growing national security threat posed by Russia and China’s willingness to exercise 21st century information warfare techniques against the United States and its areas of strategic interest. This study will describe the composition of these state’s foreign disinformation entities while providing several case studies that display their advanced capabilities and the direct effects that each poses on the general public both domestically and internationally. To best provide unbiased reporting and accuracy in each country’s analysis, this study will rely on the diversified use of government reports, legal documents, academic journals, and …

Gentrification As An Institution Of Injustice: Understanding The Displacement Of Low-Income Families And Erasure Of Culture, Diana Hernandez

CMC Senior Theses

In the last decade, gentrification has become a world-wide strategy for capital accumulation, but is one that disproportionately prioritizes corporate interests over community interests. Although often disguised as a form of urban revitalization, gentrification economic renewals lead to higher rent prices that consequently pushes poor communities out of their home and makes urban spaces geared towards affluent middle-class families only. Gentrification is not a natural phenomenon, but is instead a man-made project that is rooted in capitalism and neoliberal understanding of the market economy. This paper explores the roots of creating profit by means of privatization, especially when discussing housing. …

A Europe Of Regionalists: How Has European Integration Impacted Regionalist Political Parties’ Electoral Support?, Brandon N. Piel

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the question: How has European integration impacted regionalist political parties’ electoral support? European integration and regionalism are theoretically connected by Seth Jolly’s viability theory which explains that supranational organizations, such as the European Union (and precursor organizations), make small countries more viable. Using the regions of Flanders, Corsica, Sardinia, Padania, Galicia, and Catalonia as case studies, this thesis identifies moments of European integration and then examines if regionalist electoral results match the expectations of viability theory. This thesis found support for the idea that European integration is positively affecting regionalist political parties in elections; however, there often …

The Socioeconomic Impact And Allocative Discrepancies Of Fema Disaster Declarations And Aid, Emma Ranheim

CMC Senior Theses

In my thesis I examine the impact of natural disaster declarations on socioeconomic outcomes. I use counties that requested, but did not receive, a natural disaster declaration as controls for treatment counties that received the requested declaration. I construct a county-by-year panel dataset covering 2005 to 2016. I estimate a difference-in-differences model to estimate socioeconomic outcomes resulting from the disaster declaration decision. I find that receiving a declaration was associated with a 0.8 percentage point poverty reduction in 2010, but no other years or changes in socioeconomic outcomes were causally and significantly established by my model.

Organized Labour’S Impact On The 2020 Election, Cooper Pryde

CMC Senior Theses

Against all odds, Donald Trump won the 2016 election. A critical reason why this happened was his support amongst union members. Specifically, this helped him with the crucial Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Joe Biden learned from this and ran on the most pro-labour platform in recent history. This platform ingratiated him with union leadership who donated generously to his campaign. Unions also spent considerable resources politically organizing for the campaign. Organized labour’s support was a vital reason why Biden won all three swing Rust Belt states and ultimately the presidency. Organized labour did not only …

A Feminist Re-Imagining Of Participatory Planning, Elena Castellanos

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis presents the benefits of feminist epistemologies in exposing current unjust structures hindering spatial justice in the urban planning process. I explore three main questions: (1) how do urban planners’ and designers’ biases shape American neighborhoods’ physical and social landscape?, (2) why traditional government or private planning approaches historically chose not to encode community-making functions into their frameworks for community input?, and (3) does a substantively inclusive and equitable urban planning project require a rigorous context-based understanding of people?. Additionally, I investigate what a participatory planning process that embraces feminist epistemologies would look like, a practice that prioritizes epistemically …

Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles

CMC Senior Theses

New residential construction is an important indicator of economic health. Previous empirical work demonstrates the profound power of housing starts in forecasting recession. Theoretical research, backed by empirical study, suggests that home prices and interest rates are closely related to the amount of residential investment. This paper attempts to better understand the complex relationship between various factors that influence the supply and demand of new housing; what information do suppliers and regulators use to determine how many new units of housing will be constructed? Specifically, we will look at the respective state housing markets of California, Oregon, and Washington by …

Captives & Spoils In Chicago: Examining The Columbian Exposition’S Triumphal Procession Of 1893, Kazandra Zelaya

CMC Senior Theses

Daniel Burnham’s vision of a classical revival in the World’s Columbian Exposition of 1893 brought ancient Roman triumph with its captives and spoils to Chicago, Illinois. Burnham’s restorative urban utopia used Beaux-Arts architecture in the exposition’s White City that evoked the image of Roman triumphal processions. Beaux-Arts architecture did not extend into the Midway Plaisance, however, the model of Roman triumph extended into the ethnographic exhibits. By examining the ethnographic exhibits of the Midway as a version of a Roman triumphal procession, the exhibits highlighted novel types of captivity through sponsorships, wages, and erasure. Illustrations of American imperialism in the …

Viability Of Physiologically Timed Relaxation Interventions In Children With Asd, Nicholas Mendez

CMC Senior Theses

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is an increasingly common developmental disorder that changes how people experience the world and affects individuals’ social interactions and often leads to many adverse behaviors. Current literature dictates that a primary contributor to these adverse behaviors is that those with ASD have difficulty determining their own emotional states and determining the physiological signals that their body sends them. A study by Dr. Sarabadani et al. determined that it was possible to monitor the physiology of an individual with ASD and correlate certain signals to emotions, such as stress. These findings indicate the feasibility of establishing a …

Stronger As One? Examining Us-Saudi Relations Since 9/11, Caroline Jenkins

CMC Senior Theses

In the first several years following the attacks on September 11, 2001, many in both the American political elite and general public questioned the merits of the US’s strong alliance with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as fifteen of the nineteen hijackers, as well as Osama bin Laden, were Saudi citizens. The Kingdom was known for its lax regulations surrounding terrorist financing, which played a role in al Qaeda’s ability to carry out the 9/11 attacks. Due to this, many called for the US to end its historic partnership with the Saudis.

However, under further examination, it becomes clear that …

Community-Based Disaster Risk Management And Covid-19: How Local Ngos In Latin America Adapted To The Pandemic, Emily Pugh

CMC Senior Theses

The global COVID-19 pandemic posed new challenges for communities across Latin America: lack of access to potable water and food, loss of jobs and lack of access to technology now needed for children to attend school. By interviewing different leaders of NGOs throughout the continent, I was able to find out how local NGOs were adapting their typical activities to help their communities face these new and worsening challenges. While the NGOs in this study do not primarily focus on disaster relief, each adapted their initiatives to deal with the current needs of the community they serve. Some were able …

"We The People": Self-Governance And The Evolving Treatment Of Freedom Of Assembly In The United States, Josephine Savaria-Watson

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis looks to ground the importance of a vigorous right to assemble in the history of the United States. I argue that given the events of the last year, the current Supreme Court doctrine that limits assembly and association to expressive purposes is too restrictive and fundamentally misunderstands group rights. Instead, I argue that the Supreme Court must reinvigorate the right to assemble in order to protect democratic governance.

I begin with the history of assembly in the United States in Chapter II, which demonstrates how assemblies have been utilized by minority groups as a means to exercise political …

Understanding Place-Based Immigration: The Proposal, Its Popularity, And Its Prospects, Mohamad Moslimani

CMC Senior Theses

The idea to create a new class of place-based visas is gaining traction in policy circles. These visas, known in some instances as “heartland visas” and as part of a class of immigration reform called “place-based immigration” (PBI), are designed to give state and local governments the ability to sponsor immigrants to live and work in their local communities. The proposal has gained traction among a variety of candidates for federal office and local immigration policy stakeholders. The reason for this support is the proposal’s ability to address a grave issue facing numerous communities across the U.S.—and its ability to …

Challenges Within The Education System: An In-Depth Analysis Of The School To Prison Pipeline In The United States, Roxanne Camarena Castillo

CMC Senior Theses

Many scholars have hypothesized the existence of a school to prison pipeline (STPP) – a phenomenon that describes how particular school policies and practices have inadvertently created a pathway from schools to the juvenile criminal system. The pipeline disproportionately affects certain communities and has serious short- and long-term consequences for students. This paper explores the validity of the hypothesized pipeline and examines three underlying mechanisms: zero-tolerance policies, school safety, and school culture. After reviewing the research literature on these three mechanisms, I conclude that there is evidence for both STPP risk and STPP protective factors embedded within the school system. …

Donald Trump V. The Electorate: A Twitter Feud For The Ages, Natalie Gould

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis began as an exploration into Donald Trump’s Twitter use in the final year of his presidency, starting with his first (and at the time, only) impeachment and ending with the November 2020 election. As an incumbent running for re-election, Donald Trump broke from precedent by opting out of the traditional messaging strategy of expanding his base and promoting unity and instead focused on energizing his existing supporters. Throughout his campaign and presidency, his Trumpian-style of rhetoric which perpetuated an “us versus them” mentality resulted in threats and real violence by his supporters.

The role of social media has …

Viral Jihad: A Genealogy Of Al-Qaeda And Isis' Propaganda, Renee Perper

CMC Senior Theses

For the past twenty years, the United States has been at war. Yet, while invocations of war often evoke images of soldiers on the battlefield, the war the U.S. has been fighting looks far different. In the past two decades, the U.S. has attempted to curb the impact of terrorist organizations’ media usage. This paper explores the genealogy of that media battle through a case study of al-Qaeda and ISIS’ media apparatuses. It argues that, often overlooked, is the role that media plays as a foundational element in both groups’ organizational structures. Moreover, this paper will demonstrate how ISIS has …

Liberation Technology In The Age Of Digital Authoritarianism: Examining The Potential For Digital Technology To Promote Democratic Practice, Skyler Sallick

CMC Senior Theses

In an effort to reclaim agency in the global battle between digital democracy and digital authoritarianism, this thesis asks: What, if anything, can be done? Through a review of the current literature, it found that a singular technology can at once be liberatory while simultaneously serving to counter its own liberating potential. As a result, repressive regimes have been able to successfully push back against mass mobilization and quell efforts to bring greater transparency and accountability to systems of governance. The case of Egypt is used to explore mass mobilization and the right to freedom of expression before, during, and …

Politics Of The Obesity Epidemic, Jacob Lyle

CMC Senior Theses

American society has long been obsessed with the issue of obesity. The turn of the 20th century broadly marked the beginning of America's current collective understanding of obesity. Throughout the century, the salience of the issue waxed and waned due to various factors. Around 2000, obesity became a major political issue. Media coverage of the issue exploded, and it became a hot topic for political debate. This paper looks to conduct a complete reckoning of the obesity epidemic that includes contextualizing the economic, cultural, and political factors that have shaped the issue throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.

An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein

CMC Senior Theses

Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …