Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Isolated States Of America: The Impact Of State Borders On Mobility And Regional Labor Market Adjustments, Riley Wilson

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I document a new empirical pattern of internal mobility in the United States. Namely, county-to-county migration and commuting drop off discretely at state borders. People are three times as likely to move to a county 15 miles away, but in the same state, than to move to an equally distant county in a different state. These gaps remain even among neighboring counties or counties in the same commuting zone. This pattern is not explained by differences in county characteristics, is not driven by any particular demographic group, and is not explained by pecuniary costs such as differences in state occupational …

Isolated States Of America: State Borders, Mobility, And Labor Markets, Riley Wilson

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Equity In Unemployment Insurance Benefit Access, Christopher J. O'Leary, William E. Spriggs, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

This paper examines the uneven pattern of access to unemployment insurance (UI) by age, gender, and race across the United States. We present results from a descriptive analysis using publicly available longitudinal data reported by states on rates of UI recipiency and characteristics of UI beneficiaries. Recipiency measures the proportion of all unemployed who are receiving UI benefits. UI is intended to provide temporary, partial income replacement to involuntarily unemployed UI applicants with strong labor force attachments while they are able, available, and actively seeking return to work. Each of these UI eligibility conditions contributes to the UI recipiency rate …

General Equilibrium Effects Of Insurance Expansions: Evidence From Long-Term Care Labor Markets, Martin Hackmann, Joerg Heining, Roman Klimke, Maria Polyakova, Holger Seibert

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Arrow (1963) hypothesized that demand-side moral hazard induced by health insurance leads to supply-side expansions in healthcare markets. Capturing these effects empirically has been challenging, as non-marginal insurance expansions are rare and detailed data on healthcare labor and capital is sparse. We combine administrative labor market data with the geographic variation in the rollout of a universal insurance program—the introduction of long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995—to document a substantial expansion of the inpatient LTC labor market in response to insurance expansion. A 10 percentage point expansion in the share of insured elderly leads to 0.05 (7%) more …

How Does The Elimination Of State Aid To For-Profit Colleges Affect Enrollment? Evidence From California’S Reforms, Oded Gurantz, Ryan Sakoda, Shayak Sarkar

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how financial aid reform based on postsecondary institutional performance impacts student choice. Federal and state regulations often reflect concerns about the private, for-profit sector’s poor employment outcomes and high loan defaults, despite the sector’s possible theoretical advantages. We use student-level data to examine how eliminating public subsidies to attend low-performing for-profit institutions impacts students’ college enrollment and completion behavior. Beginning in 2011, California tightened eligibility standards for their state aid program, effectively eliminating most for-profit eligibility. Linking data on aid application to administrative payment and postsecondary enrollment records, this paper utilizes a difference-in differences strategy to investigate …

How Does The Elimination Of State Aid To For-Profit Colleges Affect Enrollment?: Evidence From California’S Reforms, Oded Gurantz, Ryan Sakoda, Shayak Sarkar

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Reemployment Services And Eligibility Assessments (Resea) In Maryland: Process Analysis Report, Christopher J. O'Leary, Gabrielle Pepin, Ting Zhang, Conrad Helms

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Black Suburbanization: Causes And Consequences Of A Transformation Of American Cities, Alexander W. Bartik, Evan Mast

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Since 1970, the share of Black individuals living in suburbs of large cities has risen from 16 to 36 percent. This shift is as large as the post-World War II wave of the Great Migration. We first show that Black suburbanization has led to major changes in neighborhoods, accounting for a large share of recent increases in both the average Black individual’s neighborhood quality and within-Black income segregation. We then show that changes in relative suburban amenities and housing prices explain about 60 and 30 percent, respectively, of Black suburbanization, while regional reallocation, changing educational attainment, and gentrification play only …

Labor Market Consequences Of Antitax Avoidance Policies, Katarzyna Bilicka

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper, I analyze the local labor market consequences of multinational firms reallocating employees across their affiliates in response to antitax avoidance policies. I leverage the introduction of a worldwide debt cap in 2010 in the United Kingdom as a quasi-natural experiment that limited one of the forms of profit shifting—debt shifting—for a group of multinational corporations (MNCs). Multinationals affected by the reform reallocated their employees from the United Kingdom to foreign locations. This affected London-based service sector firms the most. I show that this led to a reduction in the number of jobs available in regions exposed to …

Automation Workforce Productivity. How Illinois Manufacturers Are Adopting Advanced Technologies: An Insight Report On Automation, Workforce, And Productivity, Kathleen Bolter, Nicholas Martens, Kenneth Voytek, Jim Robey

Reports

No abstract provided.

When Labor Enforcement And Immigration Enforcement Collide: Deterring Worker Complaints Worsens Workplace Safety, Amanda M. Grittner, Matthew S. Johnson

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Regulatory agencies overseeing the labor market often rely on worker complaints to direct their enforcement. However, if workers face differential barriers to complain, this system could result in ineffective targeting and create disparities in working conditions. To investigate these implications, we examine how the onset of Secure Communities—a localized immigration enforcement program—affected occupational safety and health. Counties’ participation in Secure Communities substantially reduced complaints to government safety regulators, but increased injuries, at workplaces with Hispanic workers. We show that these effects are most consistent with employers reducing safety inputs in response to workers’ decreased willingness to complain.

The Impact Of The Pandemic On U.S. Labor Markets: Past, Present And Future Concerns, Michael Horrigan

Presentations

No abstract provided.

The Dynamics Of Referral Hiring And Racial Inequality: Evidence From Brazil, Conrad Miller, Ian Schmutte

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We study how referral hiring contributes to racial inequality in firm-level labor demand over the firm’s life cycle using data from Brazil. We consider a search model where referral networks are segregated, firms are more informed about the match quality of referred candidates, and some referrals are made by nonreferred employees. Consistent with the model, we find that firms are more likely to hire candidates and less likely to dismiss employees of the same race as the founder, but these differences diminish as firms’ cumulative hires increase. Referral hiring helps to explain racial differences in dismissals, seniority, and employer size.

Place-Based Jobs Policies: We Need To Boost Employment Rates In Distressed Places, But: One Size Does Not Fit All, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Rent Control In California: Policy Review, Brian J. Asquith, Shane M. Reed

Reports

The largest number of housing units subject to rent control can be found in California, but the policy environment is quite complex and is characterized by a series of interacting state and local laws. This complexity represents a significant barrier for researchers and policymakers seeking a clear and accurate picture of how rent control works in California, and how it incentivizes different behaviors among landlords and tenants alike. This technical report surveys rent control rules in California, with special attention paid to the recent statewide rent caps, historic developments, and the systems in Los Angeles and San Francisco. This report …

A Model Of Occupational Licensing And Statistical Discrimination, Peter Q. Blair, Bobby W. Chung

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We develop a model of statistical discrimination in occupational licensing. In the model, there is endogenous occupation selection and wage determination that depends on how costly it is to obtain the license and the productivity of the human capital that is bundled with the license. Under these assumptions, we find a unique equilibrium with sharp comparative statics for the licensing premiums. The key theoretical result in this paper is that the licensing premium is higher for workers who are members of demographic groups that face a higher cost of licensing. The intuition for this result is that the higher cost …

A Moment Of Opportunity: Strategies For Inclusive Economic Growth, Michelle Miller-Adams, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Estimated Cost Of Tuition-Free College In Illinois, Michelle Miller-Adams, Brian Pittelko, Bridget F. Timmeney

Reports

This memo estimates the cost of two possible program designs for a statewide college scholarship program for the State of Illinois. These assumptions and associated cost estimates, once approved or revised, will form the basis for the next stage of this project, which is assessing the economic impact of tuition-free college in Illinois.

Economic Benefits And Costs Of Tuition-Free College In Illinois, Timothy J. Bartik, Michelle Miller-Adams, Brian Pittelko, Bridget F. Timmeney

Reports

This memo estimates the main economic benefits of tuition-free college in Illinois. These economic benefits are compared with the costs of making tuition free. In addition, we consider possible fiscal benefits of tuition-free college and whether these fiscal benefits for Illinois will offset the fiscal costs of making tuition free. This memo is based on cost estimates presented to the State of Illinois in an August 2020 memo entitled “Estimated Cost of Tuition-Free College in Illinois” and should be considered in conjunction with that memo.

Beyond Degrees: Longer Term Outcomes Of The Kalamazoo Promise, Brad J. Hershbein, Isabel Mcmullen, Brian Pittelko, Bridget F. Timmeney

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the effects on workforce and location outcomes of the Kalamazoo Promise, a generous, place-based college scholarship. Drawing upon administrative unemployment insurance wage records merged with individual-level education data, we identify Promise effects by comparing eligible to ineligible graduates before and after the Promise’s initiation. We supplement this quantitative analysis with surveys and interviews. Despite earlier research showing that the Kalamazoo Promise substantially increased degree attainment, we find little evidence that the program affected average earnings within 10 years of high school graduation. However, the Kalamazoo Promise may have increased the likelihood of eligible graduates having earnings, within Michigan, …

Beyond Degrees: The Kalamazoo Promise And Workforce Outcomes, Isabel Mcmullen, Brad J. Hershbein

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Trade Policy As An Exogenous Shock: Focusing On The Specifics, Andrew Greenland, John W. Lopresti

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper proposes a novel strategy for identifying the effects of import competition on economic outcomes that avoids standard concerns related to the endogeneity of trade policy and provides a consistent measure of exposure to trade over time. Conditioning on the level of import tariffs, our approach exploits cross-industry differences in the relative importance of specific rather than ad valorem tariffs. As they are expressed in per unit terms rather than as a share of value, the effective protection provided by a given specific tariff varies with price levels. Using digitized tariff line data between 1900 and 1940, we relate …

Informed Choices: Gender Gaps In Career Advice, Yana Gallen, Melanie Wasserman

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Construction Of Broadband In The Eastern Upper Peninsula Of Michigan: Estimates Of Economic Impacts, Jim Robey

Reports

The Merit Network, in support of a U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA) grant application, asked the Regional and Economic Planning Services Team at the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (Upjohn) to estimate the economic impact of building and maintaining more than 70 miles of broadband infrastructure in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The region for estimating economic impacts is referred to as the eastern Upper Peninsula (EUP) and the region includes Luce, Chippewa, and Mackinac counties. The estimates for constructing the broadband infrastructure are reported for the period 2021 to 2023 and include labor as well as …

An Assessment Of The Economic Conditions In The City Of Battle Creek, Kathleen Bolter, Jim Robey, Gerrit Anderson

Reports

The City of Battle Creek offers current and future residents many benefits including a lower cost of living, growing health care and manufacturing sectors, and relatively high wages for the region. At the same time, the City of Battle Creek, like many small-sized midwestern cities, faces many challenges. Its workforce is shrinking and aging. Residents lack the educational attainment needed to compete in the twenty-first-century economy. And, economic, social, racial, and ethnic divisions exist within the city. Together, these issues could risk the ability of the City of Battle Creek to reach a new level of competitiveness and attract new …

Community Health Assessment: Van Buren County, Kathleen Bolter, Jim Robey, Gerrit Anderson

Reports

No abstract provided.

Community Health Assessment: Kalamazoo, Kathleen Bolter, Jim Robey, Gerrit Anderson

Reports

No abstract provided.

Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth disconnection—i.e., the share of young people who were neither in school nor at work. Youth disconnection offers important advantages, relative to unemployment or participation rates, as a measure of the labor market for the most marginal and disadvantaged youth. Before the pandemic, approximately one out of eight young people between the ages of 18 and 24 were disconnected. The disconnection rate increased dramatically in April 2020 because of the pandemic; however, it has decreased quickly since that time. The increase in the disconnection rate at the beginning of the …

Workforce And Demographic Profile Of Berrien, Cass, And Van Buren Counties, Jim Robey

Reports

The Whirlpool Corporation, located in Benton Harbor Charter Township, asked the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research to develop a dashboard of indicators portraying the current and future (where possible) “economic” health of the region.