Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Impact Of Contact Tracing On The Spread Of Covid-19: An Egocentric Agent-Based Model, Andrew Pilny, Lin Xiang, Corey Huber, Will Silberman, Sean Goatley-Soan

Communication Faculty Publications

At its core, contact tracing is a form of egocentric network analysis (ENA). One of the biggest obstacles for ENA is informant accuracy (i.e., amount of true contacts identified), which is even more prominent for interaction-based network ties because they often represent episodic relational events, rather than enduring relational states. This research examines the effect of informant accuracy on the spread of COVID-19 through an egocentric, agent-based model. Overall when the average person transmits COVID-19 to 1.62 other people (i.e., the R₀), they must be, on average, 75% accurate with naming their contacts. In higher transmission contexts (i.e., …