Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Determining An Expected House Majority Using Pattern Analysis, Jesse T. Clark

Honors College

Since the early 1800s, state committees and legislatures have been drawing districts in order to win elections by splitting and grouping populations to promote their chances of victory, a process called gerrymandering. Little consensus can be found in past work as some studies claim that current partisan gridlock is partially related to this procedure, while other works have found that sorting and the spatial distribution of partisanship account for gridlock. This exercise seeks to measure the impact of gerrymandering by comparing the party makeup of the current U.S. House delegation to the natural partisan makeup of a state as determined …