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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang
Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification …
A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang
A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics50, 337–349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or …