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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Integration Of The East And South-East Asian Equity Markets, K. B. Tan, Yiu Kuen Tse
The Integration Of The East And South-East Asian Equity Markets, K. B. Tan, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study examines how the degree of capital-market integration of the East and South-East Asian (ESEA) economies varied over the period 1988–2000 following the deregulation of these markets. The deregulation process varied across the countries both in terms of intensity and timing. A greater degree of co-movements in stock prices is a reflection of greater stock-market integration. We employ Geweke’s (1982) measure of feedback for different pairs of markets. For each pair of markets, the Geweke measure shows how co-movements in daily returns of stock prices varied over time. This is followed by the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to examine …
Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.
Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu
Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we compare two basic approaches to forecast volatility in the German stock market. The first approach uses various univariate time series techniques while the second approach makes use of volatility implied in option prices. The time series models include the historical mean model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model, four ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility (SV) model. Based on the utilization of volatility forecasts in option pricing and Value-at-Risk (VaR), various forecast horizons and forecast error measurements are used to assess the ability of volatility forecasts. We show that the mode lrankings are sensitive to …
An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung
An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
The external debt position of a country often lies at the heart of her financial crisis. While it is well-known that indebtedness and in particular a surge in short-term debts often precipitate a debt crisis that is often made worse by runs on a country’s foreign exchange, the reasons why a country takes a particular debt position is rarely formally explained. This paper investigates the long-term determinants of international indebtedness, the time-rates of change of indebtedness, and a nation’s short- to long term debt ratio. The data set used is the World Data CD-ROM. Six potential explanatory variables are: size, …
The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan
The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.