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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Modeling Speculative Bubbles With Diverse Investor Expectations, Peter C. B. Phillips
Modeling Speculative Bubbles With Diverse Investor Expectations, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We construct a model of asset market exuberance, collapse and recovery using subjective investor-based rational expectations about the impact of fundamentals on the market price. Investors are assumed to have heterogeneous market sentiments, allowing them to be exuberant, cautious, or fundamentalist via boundary conditions that describe their respective views of the market impact of the same economic fundamentals. Equilibrium solution paths of the model take varying forms, depending on the parameter settings that reflect the importance of each type of market participant. This rational expectations model of asset pricing is shown to be consistent with a simple explosive continuous time …
Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips
Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exuberant behaviour in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid-2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analysing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland …