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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Bond Yield Compression In The Countries Converging To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Kirsten Lommatzsch
Bond Yield Compression In The Countries Converging To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Kirsten Lommatzsch
WCBT Faculty Publications
We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new ...Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar …
Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative …