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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Growth Forecast Revisions Over Business Cycles: Evidence From The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim
Growth Forecast Revisions Over Business Cycles: Evidence From The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.
Experiential Learning In The Jesuit Business School Context: The Agbl Program, Nicholas J C Santos, Heather Kohls, Jennifer S. Maney
Experiential Learning In The Jesuit Business School Context: The Agbl Program, Nicholas J C Santos, Heather Kohls, Jennifer S. Maney
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
In an attempt to engage Jesuit business school students in transformational learning, Marquette University offers the Applied Global Business Learning (AGBL) Program. This program embodies the Ignatian pedagogy paradigm of helping students gain an understanding of a business need in a different part of the world, engages them in action, and has them reflect on and evaluate the experience as it relates to how they take the experience to change the world. This paper discusses the program’s relation to the Jesuit tradition, the history of the program including where students go and what they do, the impact on student learning, …
The Influence Of Learning And Price-Level Targeting On Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole
The Influence Of Learning And Price-Level Targeting On Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
This paper examines how the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance depends on two key channels: the expectations formation process and the monetary policy regime. The results show that rational expectations relative to an adaptive learning rule amplifies the positive benefits a price-level targeting central bank creates for forward guidance. Specifically, forward guidance generates greater amounts of output and inflation under a price-level than inflation targeting monetary policy regime, but rational expectations overstates these positive benefits compared to adaptive learning. The different responses of expectations between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance are driving this performance gap. Thus, …
The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole
The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
This paper investigates the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. During a period of economic crisis, output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared with a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance.
Competitive Blind Spots And The Cyclicality Of Investment: Experimental Evidence, Cortney S. Rodent, Andrew Smyth
Competitive Blind Spots And The Cyclicality Of Investment: Experimental Evidence, Cortney S. Rodent, Andrew Smyth
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
We report laboratory experiments investigating the cyclicality of profit‐enhancing investment in a competitive environment. In our setting, optimal investment is counter‐cyclical when investment costs fall following market downturns. However, we do not observe counter‐cyclical investment. Instead, we see much less strategic behavior than our rational investment model anticipates. Our participants exhibit what Porter (1980) terms a competitive blind spot, and heuristic investment models where individuals invest a fixed percentage of their liquidity, or a fixed percentage of anticipated market demand, better fit our data than does optimal investment. We also report a control treatment without cost changes and a treatment …
International Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence Of The Interaction Of Socio-Tropic Influences And Uncertainty Shocks, Joseph Daniels, Emily Kapszukiewicz, Marc Von Der Ruhr
International Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence Of The Interaction Of Socio-Tropic Influences And Uncertainty Shocks, Joseph Daniels, Emily Kapszukiewicz, Marc Von Der Ruhr
Economics Faculty Research and Publications
This paper provides new evidence supporting the hypothesis that patriotism and nationalism influence personal trade policy preferences in addition to the typical economic determinants. It also examines the interaction of the 9/11 terrorist attacks along with patriotism and nationalism on policy preferences. Using the Heckscher-Ohlin model as a theoretical framework, ordered probit estimations were applied to survey responses from an International Social Survey Program survey question about preferences towards limiting imports. Extensions of the model were sequentially estimated to investigate the impact of national identity on policy preferences. The model was augmented to test how feelings of nationalism and patriotism …