Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Making The Grade: What's Motivating China's Educational Outreach In Lac?, Margaret Myers, Brian Fonseca

Research Publications

This paper considers the multiple motivations for China’s educational outreach in the region, drawing from Chinese policy and analysis and many dozens of examples of academic linkages forged between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in recent years. Whether initiated by Chinese or LAC institutions, these programs are an increasingly central feature of China-LAC relations, a part of the extension of China’s BRI to LAC, and a useful measure of China’s varied and evolving interests throughout the region.

China's Investments And Land Use In Latin America, Monica Nunez Salas

Research Publications

Increased demand by China for commodities has impacted natural resources and local people in Latin America, at a time when climate change has created an urgency for sustainable practices. This report aims to contribute to a nuanced view of Chinese major investments and trade, analyzing the soy, copper, and beef industries. In many cases, it shows how unsustainability is not the result of the practices of Chinese companies but rather the nature of the resource, local legal frameworks, or global industry standards. Latin American countries must devise development plans for these industries and not rely solely on voluntary sustainability standards …

Tussle For The Amazon: New Frontiers In Brazil's Organized Crime Landscape, Ryan C. Berg

Research Publications

Brazil is witnessing a “tussle for the Amazon”—a new and deadly phase in the history of its organized crime groups and their operations. While the country is no stranger to violent criminal organizations, recent years have seen groups building increasingly sophisticated networks, both within and beyond Brazil’s borders. In the strategic state of Amazonas, these developments have sparked a power struggle between several of the country’s largest criminal organizations that has concerning implications for the stability of Brazil as a whole. This “tussle” is more than a mere clash between Brazil’s transnational organized crime groups. It is a threat to …

The Cycle Of Risk: Impact Of Climate Change On Security Challenges In The Caribbean, Wazim Mowla

Research Publications

The intersection of climate change and security has geopolitical considerations for Caribbean countries and the United States. Addressing climate change through recovery, resilience, and adaptation requires significant financing. In an indebted region, most governments will look elsewhere before agreeing to accept new loans from international financial institutions. Caribbean decision-makers are pragmatic actors, meaning there are opportunities for U.S. counterparts, such as China and Russia, to strengthen diplomatic ties by offering aid or low-interest loans to governments and others on a smaller scale, such as Venezuela and Cuba. Resilient recovery, access to low-interest financing, expansion of the regional security system, and …

Environmental Explanations Of Central American Migration: Challenges And Policy Recommendations, Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian, Diego Chaves-González

Research Publications

In this report, the authors argue that when countries and relevant stakeholders do not prioritize disaster preparedness and foster community resilience, extreme climate events can deplete people’s material and socioeconomic well-being. This results in internal displacement as people seek economic opportunities and social protection, which may exacerbate conflict and social tension in the cities they move to. Ultimately, this helps explain one unexamined consideration driving migration to the United States from the Northern Triangle countries.

The Return Of Geopolitics: Latin America And The Caribbean In An Era Of Strategic Competition, Hal Brands, Ryan C. Berg

Research Publications

With the advent of the Biden administration, it is clear the idea of focusing U.S. foreign policy on strategic competition enjoys widespread bipartisan support. U.S. statecraft is increasingly directed at the threats posed by powerful state rivals—especially China—as opposed to Salafi-Jihadist extremists and other non-state actors. Yet geopolitical rivalry is not simply something that happens over there in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. It also happens over here, within the Western Hemisphere. As the United States enters a new period of geopolitical rivalry, it must update its understanding of strategic denial to fit the facts on the ground. …

Hopelessness And Corruption: Overlooked Drivers Of Migration From The Northern Triangle Of Central America, Joy Olson, Eric L. Olson

Research Publications

This work briefly reviews the complex web of factors traditionally considered migration drivers. The authors’ interviews with migrants and their own work on anti-corruption efforts in Central America led them to hypothesize that something is missing from this traditional framework. Interviews with migrants in transit suggested that beyond any individual or combination of factors stood a profound lack of hope that the situation in their home country would improve.

Going Local: An Assessment Of China's Administrative-Level Activity In Latin American And The Caribbean, Margaret Myers

Research Publications

Local-level engagement is becoming an increasingly central feature of the broader China- LAC relationship, as Chinese central government, quasi-governmental, provincial, commercial and other actors seek to engage more extensively in LAC markets, shape external views of China, and advance China’s various policy objectives and political interests, including vis-à-vis Taiwan. Though prompted by Chinese government policy, the nature of this engagement is exceedingly wide-ranging, however, featuring a complex cast of generally uncoordinated characters with distinct interests and approaches. The outcomes at the subnational are also distinct. Some local-level partnerships have been exceedingly productive, resulting in numerous commercial deals and other forms …

Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Medium And Long-Term Impacts, Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian, Paula García Tufró

Research Publications

The recent debate on Venezuela has primarily focused on the promotion of a political transition to reestablish a functioning democracy, respect for human rights, and restore a viable economy. However, the discussion and resulting actions should also focus on the need to address the medium to long term regional effects of the Venezuelan migration crisis. The human dimensions of the country’s protracted political, economic, and humanitarian crisis have been daunting, with 4.5 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees having fled their homeland between 2015 and 2019. This massive exodus is having the greatest impact on Latin American and Caribbean countries. The …

The Evolution Of Threat Networks In Latin America, Dr. Phil Williams, Dr. Sandra Quincoses

Research Publications

The economic and political environments in Latin America have been advantageous for local, regional, and transnational threat networks. Specifically, technology, increased international trade and economic interdependence, heightened interest in natural resources for profit, synthetic drug production, economic disparities, corruption, impunity, and unstable political conditions have led to a complex web of opportunities that requires new, progressive ways to address criminal activities. The creativity of threat networks along with their entrepreneurial strategies have resulted in increasing power and influence. Despite efforts by the United States and some governments in Latin America to combat these networks, the everchanging global environment has worked …

Back In Power? Brazil's Military Under Bolsonaro, Roberto Simon, Brian Winter

Research Publications

It would not be an exaggeration to say that the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro represented the biggest shock to civil-military relations in Brazil in the last 40 years. Bolsonaro, a former Army captain who campaigned on a platform of dictatorship nostalgia amid the country’s worst-ever economic crisis, vowed to bring the generals back to the center of Brazilian politics. Indeed, the military today is exercising power not seen since Brazil concluded its decade-long “gradual transition” from dictatorship to democracy during the late 1970s and 1980s. Retired (and sometimes active-duty) senior military officers are now occupying several critical positions in …

Are China And Russia On The Cyber Offensive In Latin America And The Caribbean?, Brian Fonseca, Robert Morgus, Kiran Green, Alexander Crowther

Research Publications

Cyberspace—the newest domain of conflict—is among the most prominent forums of conflict in the twenty-first century. Increasingly nation-states utilize cyber and information capability in pursuit of foreign policy and national security objectives. This report focuses on two nation-states that are leading the charge in this respect: China and Russia.

While Russia seeks to destabilize the global system for its own advantage, China’s goal is to maintain the current system and replace the United States as the global hegemon. To that end, China and Russia are pursuing robust cyber capabilities to advance their respective geopolitical, economic, and security interests. Moreover, Chinese …

The Future Of Us-Colombia Relations, Christopher Sabatini, Sofia Mateu-Gelabert, Brian Fonseca

Research Publications

Colombia has been one of the United States’ closest allies in the region, stretching back to the 1950s. Colombia was the only Latin American country to join the Korean War in a direct military role. In 1951, the first 1,000 Colombian soldiers disembarked in South Korea where they maintained a military presence until the end of the war. During the 1960s and 1970s, Colombia became one of the largest recipients of United States assistance in Latin America. The assistance was designed to enable Colombia to develop economically through industrialization, agrarian, and social reforms and helped solidify Colombian-U.S. military relations.1 Colombia’s …

Mexico-United States Migration: Security Implications, Roberto Zepeda Martinez, Johnathan D. Rosen

Research Publications

JGI Research Scientist Dr. Jonathan Rosen along with Mexican scholar Roberto Zepeda Martinez just released a newly published journal article titled "Mexico-United States Migration: Security Implications." This piece argues that in order to reduce migration levels, the US and Mexico must work together to regulate migration flows in order to meet the demands for labor force in the US while protecting against illicit movements.

Venezuelan Military Culture, Brian Fonseca, John Polga-Hecimovich, Harold A. Trinkunas

Research Publications

The Venezuelan Armed Forces, known today as the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (National Bolivarian Armed Force, FANB), have been key actors in Venezuelan politics and state building. The military, directly or indirectly, held political power in Venezuela through most of the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth centuries. Under President Chávez, active-duty and retired military officers assumed political and bureaucratic positions, occupying up to a third of cabinet portfolios, with the FANB becoming one of the principal facilitators of government programs and policy, clearly moving from a restricted domestic role to an active one. This report analyzes the historical …

United States Policy In The Hemisphere: Influencing The State And Beyond, Frank Mora, Brian Fonseca

Research Publications

United States—Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) relations are strong, and more importantly, built on a broad base of sophisticated, organic relationships that extend well beyond state-to-state engagements. Furthermore, U.S.-LAC relations encompass far more than what is often covered in the commentariat—like the number of presidential visits, the emergence of extra-hemispheric actors, problems related to drugs and immigration, or when compared to the visibility of U.S. engagements in others parts of the world. These outdated measures fail to truly appreciate the complexity and depth of U.S.-LAC relations today, all of which are the result of our persistent and deliberate engagement with …

Cuban Military Culture, Frank Mora, Brian Fonseca, Brian Latell

Research Publications

The Revolutionary Armed forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias—FAR) have traditionally been the most powerful official institution in Cuba and the central pillar sustaining the communist regime. Beginning with the stunning victory against an American sponsored exile invasion at the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban military became one of the best and most experienced fighting forces of any small nation. This report examines how traditional FAR culture has been characterized by exalted status, confidence, high morale, strict discipline, belief in the leadership of the Castro brothers, and an assertive nationalism antagonistic towards the United States. However, today, it is about a tenth …

An Analysis Of Colombian Perceptions: Internal And External Actors And The Pursuit Of Peace, Brian Fonseca, José Miguel Cruz, Eduardo Gamarra, Johnathan D. Rosen, Daniel Campos, Randy Pestana

Research Publications

Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy (JGI) and the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center (LACC) conducted a study to understand Colombian perceptions towards internal and external actors and Colombia’s pursuit of peace. The study revolved around the analysis of 14 focus groups conducted in seven Colombian cities: Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, Cúcuta, Medellín, and Pasto. The results of these focus groups reflect the opinions and perceptions of those who participated in the study.

Honduran Military Culture, Orlando J. Pérez, Randy Pestana

Research Publications

The Honduran Armed Forces have been closely linked to the political system since the state’s independence in 1838. The United States is responsible for the professionalization of the Honduran Armed Forces in the post WWII period. The role of the Honduran Armed Forces has shifted since its professionalization. No other military institution—or country for that matter—has had as close relations with the Honduran military than the United States. Increased military aid and training both professionalized and institutionalized the military. This report examines the historical evolution of the Honduran Armed Forces, sources of identity of the Honduran Armed Forces, and the …

Running On Fumes: The Politics Of Natural Gas In Bolivia, Marten Brienen

Research Publications

This article examines energy security in Bolivia during the Evo Morales administration, focusing on natural gas. The article begins by analyzing the Gas Wars and the consequences of such events. Despite the anti-imperialistic rhetoric, President Morales’ administration has implemented fairly conservative fiscal policies. This work focuses on the various challenges that Bolivia faces. Brienen argues that Bolivia will likely become a minor energy player in the regional market as opposed to an energy power house. It is also important to note that many social programs have been funded by the profits from natural gas. However, if more natural gas is …

Farc Strategic Communications & The Colombian Peace Process, Dan Restrepo

Research Publications

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper explores the FARC's continued use of more traditional methods of communication, as well as their target audience, and the communication failures of both the FARC and the Government of Colombia in the context of the Columbian Peace Process.

The Russian Media In Latin America, W. Alejandro Sanchez

Research Publications

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper examines Russia's messaging in Latin America, and its role in strengthening the growing ties between Russia and Latin America.

Developing Relationships With The Cuban Military, In The Context Of A Changing Cuba, Geoff Thale

Research Publications

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses how the initial steps toward normalizing relations with Cuba opens both opportunities and challenges for agencies of the U.S. government, including the military, as the nation moves toward more normal relations.

Us-Cuba Normalizations: Strategic Impacts For U.S. National Security, Ted Piccone

Research Publications

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses the strategic impacts regarding the renewed relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Piccone discusses the implications for U.S.-Cuban bilateral relations, U.S. relations in the region, and U.S. relations on the global level.