Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Vive La Différence?: Is There A Gender Gap In Campaign Strategy And Spending, And Does It Matter?, Paul S. Herrnson, Charles Hunt, Jaclyn J. Kettler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Record numbers of women were elected into office in the US in recent years, and campaign financing may have contributed to their successes. This raises two questions: Is there a gender gap in campaign strategy and spending? And if there is, does it have an impact on election outcomes? Using a new dataset that includes itemized campaign expenditures for the almost 3,500 candidates who contested a House election between 2012 and 2020, we report little evidence of a gender gap in candidates’ campaign spending, but we find some differences in the effects of communications spending on women’s and men’s electoral …

Local Candidate Roots And Electoral Advantages In Us State Legislatures, Charles Russell Hunt, Stella Rouse

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A growing literature has revealed a notable electoral advantage for congressional and gubernatorial candidates with deep local roots in their home districts or states. However, there is a dearth of research on the presence and impact of local roots in state legislative races. In this paper, we close that gap by demonstrating the consistent and significant electoral impacts that state legislators’ local roots have on their reelection efforts. We use data capturing a representative cross-section of state legislative incumbents (N = ~5,000) and calculate a novel index measuring the depth of their local roots modeled after Hunt’s (2022, Home …

Women’S Human Development Outcomes In India: A Closer Look At Fdi Inflows, Economic Structure, And Female Labor Force Participation, Nisha Bellinger

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Global human development trends display a consistent improvement over time. However, these indicators may not improve at the same pace or even trend in the same direction. India is one such country that displays intriguing trends. While women’s education and health outcomes have improved over the years, women’s political representation and labor force participation rates are lagging behind. This chapter focuses on female labor force participation (FLFP) in India, which has declined in recent years. I discuss the nature of India’s globalizing economy, specifically foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, in conjunction with the changing structure of the domestic economy, to …

A Fractured Electorate?: French Presidental Election Forecasting For 2022, Ross E. Burkhart

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper forecasts the first round of the French presidential election five months in advance. It uses a key industry-standard structural variable in its forecasting model, approval of the French president. Its parsimony allows for an early forecast, but its potential for error is higher. In the end, the forecast was somewhat off the mark, though it accurately showed the strength of a somewhat attenuated left. However, the structure of French political parties has changed dramatically over the past several years, leaving some doubt as to the reliability of this forecasting technique.

On Preserving A Political Community In Revolutionary Times, Scott Yenor

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Among the hardest things to do in politics is to understand the current situation. Partisan loyalties cloud perspective. Political actors make overwrought charges in order to rile up their partisans. Things that seem important often are not, while small changes can lead to political revolutions. Revolutions often come without countries or political communities knowing, until it is too late.

Rural Decentralization And Infant Mortality Among Select Indian States: A Preliminary Analysis, Nisha Bellinger

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In 1992 the 73rd amendment to the Indian constitution called on states to create and empower rural local governments. Despite the amendment, however, there is variation in the extent of decentralization of power from states to rural local governments in the country. How has this process of decentralization influenced health outcomes in India? The research note addresses this question by collecting preliminary data on political, administrative and fiscal decentralization and examining trends in different dimensions of decentralization and infant mortality rates among select states (Assam, Rajasthan, Kerala and Tamil Nadu) from 1994 to 2017. These states display disparities in the …

Political Effects On The Discontinuation Of Participatory Budgeting In Municipalities, Ricardo Rocha De Azevedo, Ricardo Lopes Cardoso, Armando Santos Moreira Da Cunha, Brian Wampler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The article analyzes the factors associated with the discontinuation of participatory budgeting (PB) in Brazilian municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2016. We used econometric models to estimate PB’s discontinuation based on political explanatory variables and people’s local participation. The results indicate that discontinuation is associated: (i) positively with the election of a different local government, regardless of the winning party’s ideology; (ii) positively with the election of a local government with a left-wing ideology’; (iii) negatively with the election of a non-left-wing local government; (iv) positively with the election of a left-wing local government replacing another …

Growing Tea With Subnational Roots: Tea Party Affiliation, Factionalism, And Gop Politics In State Legislatures, Stella M. Rouse, Charles Hunt, Kristen Essel

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Most research has examined the influence of the Tea Party as a social movement or loose organization, but less is known about its influence within legislative party politics, especially at the state level. In this paper, we argue that in this context the Tea Party is primarily an intraparty faction that has caused significant divisions inside the Republican Party. Using an original dataset of legislators across 13 states for the years 2010 to 2013, we examine legislator and district-level characteristics that predict state legislators’ affiliation with the Tea Party. Our results reveal that in some respects legislators affiliated with the …

Is It Us? Is It Them? Or Is It This Place?: Predicting Civility In State Legislatures, Jaclyn J. Kettler, Luke Fowler, Stephanie L. Witt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

While many scholars and analysts have observed a decline in civility in recent years, there have been few examinations of how political, economic, and institutional structures may partially explain inter-state differences in these trends. We suggest three potential explanations: (1) institutional structures, such as legislative professionalism and gubernatorial power, have created different contexts in which legislators build and maintain inter-personal relationships; (2) partisan competition has led to less bipartisan cooperation and contributed to strained relationships between members of different parties; and, (3) economic inequity and change has contributed to economic anxiety among citizens, contributing to conflict in legislative bodies as …

Buying Their Way In: Redistribution Of Campaign Resources As A Path To State Legislative Leadership For Women, Jaclyn J. Kettler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Women continue to be underrepresented in legislative leadership. This is concerning in U.S. legislatures, where leaders have substantial control over resources and policymaking. As an outgroup, women face additional barriers to power in politics, making it difficult to become a legislative leader. How can women gain influence within their political party? I argue one potential path for overcoming these barriers is the redistribution of campaign resources to other party actors, which helps facilitate connections in the party. These relationships help candidates gain influence, and they can draw on them for support in the legislature. Do women candidates redistribute funds to …

The Effect Of Partisan Representation At Different Levels Of Government On Satisfaction With Democracy In The United States, Julie Vandusky-Allen, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper, we analyze how variations in partisan representation across different levels of government influence Americans’ satisfaction with the democracy in the United States. We conduct two survey experiments and analyze data from the 2016 American National Election Study postelection survey. We find that Americans are the most satisfied with democracy when their most preferred party controls both the federal and their respective state governments. However, we also find that even if an individual’s least preferred party only controls one level of government, they are still more satisfied with democracy than if their most preferred party controls no levels …

Domestic Terrorism In The Developing World: Role Of Food Security, Nisha Bellinger, Kyle T. Kattelman

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This article sheds light on the root causes of terrorism by assessing the effect of food security on domestic terrorism among developing countries. Food security is a fundamental physiological need and captures a core well-being outcome. We argue that food insecurity creates grievances among citizens and increases demand among them for action against the government. Terrorist organisations provide the opportunity for citizens to channel their grievances against the government by resolving collective action problems and mobilising citizens. We demonstrate the link between food insecurity and domestic terrorism through quantitative analyses on a sample of 70 developing countries from 1980 to …

How America’S Partisan Divide Over Pandemic Responses Played Out In The States, Julie Vandusky-Allen, Olga Shvetsova

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, a partisan divide has existed over the appropriate government response to the public health crisis. Democrats have been more likely to favor stricter policies such as prolonged economic shutdowns, limits on gathering in groups and mask mandates. Republicans overall have favored less stringent policies.

The Fickle Financiers Of Elections?: The Impact Of Moving On Individual Contributions, Jaclyn J. Kettler, Jeffrey Lyons

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

What is the effect of a change in geographic location on the behavior of campaign donors? Looking at people who move presents a unique opportunity to assess the ways in which political behavior is altered by external circumstances. Holding the individual constant and observing how donation patterns vary under different external conditions allows us to explore donor behaviors in ways that are more difficult when using cross-sectional data. We use the DIME dataset to compare the donation behavior of over 7,000 individuals in the U.S. House election before and after they have moved. We observe the ways in which changes …

Expanding Constituency Support Through Shared Local Roots In U.S. House Primaries, Charles Hunt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper addresses the enduring connection of localism and place-based roots shared between many elected leaders and their constituents, which previous work has either ignored or improperly specified. I argue that representatives of the U.S. House with these roots—meaning authentic, lived experience in their districts prior to their officeholding—sustain more supportive constituencies in primary election stage. Using an original 7-point index of local biographical characteristics of incumbents seeking renomination from 2002 to 2018, I find that deeply-rooted incumbents are less than half as likely to receive a primary challenge, and on average perform more than 5 percentage points better in …

Beyond Partisanship: Outperforming The Party Label With Local Roots In Congressional Elections, Charles R. Hunt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

While factors like partisanship are increasingly decisive in congressional elections, they do not fully explain variation in constituency support between similarly situated incumbents. I argue that legislators’ reelection success is also influenced by the depth of their local, pre-Congress roots in the district they represent. I theorize that this local connection offers practical advantages to incumbents, such as built-in grassroots political infrastructure in their districts. Shared local identity also allows legislators to relate to their voters on a dimension that is uniquely suited to cross-cut partisanship and qualify them to represent their particular constituents. Therefore, I argue that local roots …

Grand Old (Tailgate) Party?: Partisan Discrimination In Apolitical Settings, Andrew M. Engelhardt, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent work in political science demonstrates that the American public is strongly divided on partisan lines. Levels of affective polarization are so great, it seems, that partisanship even shapes behavior in apolitical settings. However, this literature does not account for other salient identity dimensions on which people make decisions in apolitical settings, potentially stacking the deck in favor of partisanship. We address this limitation with a pair of experiments studying price discrimination among college football fans. We find that partisan discrimination exists, even when the decision context explicitly calls attention to another social identity. But, importantly, this appears to function …

A Voter-Centric Explanation Of The Success Of Ideological Candidates For The U.S. House, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, ideological candidates for the U.S. House have become increasingly successful, to the point where their chances of being elected are indistinguishable from moderates. However, scholars have still not uncovered exactly why this is happening. Using survey data from the American National Election Studies, I find that voter-centric explanations of vote choice – a voter’s partisanship, ideology, and presidential approval rating – have increasingly predicted their vote choice in U.S. House elections from 1980 to 2016. Using data on candidate ideology, I find that candidate ideology is an increasingly poor predictor of individual vote choice over time. Original …

How The Coronavirus Increases Terrorism Threats In The Developing World, Nisha Bellinger, Kyle Kattelman

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.

We are political scientists who study the developing world and political conflict. Our recently published research identifies a potential link between the pandemic and an uptick in violence. We find that food insecurity – the lack of both financial and physical access to nutritious food, which leads to malnutrition and undernourishment in a population – makes citizens angry …

Outside The Wire: U.S. Military Deployments And Public Opinion In Host States, Michael A. Allen, Michael E. Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain, Andrew Stravers

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes towards the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. presence, people, and government. This study has profound implications for the role that U.S. installations play in affecting the social fabric of host nations, and policy implications for the conduct of …

Linking Gender, Language, And Partisanship: Developing A Database Of Masculine And Feminine Words, Damon C. Roberts, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Seemingly, gender, language, and partisanship are intertwined concepts. We believe that the use of gendered language in political settings may be used strategically by political elites. The purpose of this paper is to craft a tool for scholars to test the interconnection between politics, gender, and language—what we refer to as being the gendered language and partisanship nexus. We test our prediction using original word rating data. From our test, we find significant variation across seven hundred words in ratings as masculine and feminine and discover that words rated as masculine are more likely to be rated as dominant and …

Man Bites Blue Dog: Are Moderates Really More Electable Than Ideologues?, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Are ideologically moderate candidates more electable than ideologically extreme candidates? Historically, both research in political science and conventional wisdom answer yes to this question. However, given the rise of ideologues on both the right and the left in recent years, it is important to consider whether this assumption is still accurate. I find that, while moderates have historically enjoyed an advantage over ideologically extreme candidates in congressional elections, this gap has disappeared in recent years, where moderates and ideologically extreme candidates are equally likely to be elected. This change persists for both Democratic and Republican candidates.

Why Does The Us Pay So Much For The Defense Of Its Allies?: 5 Questions Answered, Michael E. Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain, Michael A. Allen

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since the start of Donald Trump’s run for the U.S. presidency in 2015, he has been critical of the amount of money U.S. allies contribute to their own defense.

Now, the Trump administration is demanding that Japan and South Korea pay more for hosting U.S. troops stationed in those countries.

The media also reported that U.S. military leadership in South Korea discussed the possibility of withdrawing up to 4,000 troops from South Korea if it does not increase its contributions. The Pentagon has since denied having such plans.

We have each studied overseas deployments of U.S. military personnel for nearly …

Political Parties And Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Among Developing Countries, Nisha M. Bellinger, Byunghwan Son

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper focuses on the nature of party systems to explain variations in FDI inflows within developing democracies. We hypothesize a positive relationship between the effective number of parliamentary parties (ENPPs) and FDI inflows. Large ENPPs are indicative of the expropriation risks as well as stability of the political environment of host countries. We thus argue that expropriation risks are low when the presence of multiple parties makes drastic, impulsive changes in economic policies difficult. We also suggest that a larger number of parties represent diverse societal interests better, reducing the chances of under-represented social groups driving political instability. The …

Is Authoritarianism Bad For The Economy? Ask Venezuela – Or Hungary Or Turkey, Nisha Bellinger, Byunghwan Son

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Democracy is at risk worldwide. And the economy may be, too.

Seventy-one out of the world’s 195 countries saw their democratic institutions erode in recent years, according to the 2018 year-end report by democracy watchdog Freedom House, a phenomenon known as “democratic backsliding.” Signs of backsliding include elected leaders who expand their executive powers while weakening the legislature and judiciary, elections that have become less competitive and shrinking press freedom.

The Difference In Design: Participatory Budgeting In Brazil And The United States, Hollie Russon Gilman, Brian Wampler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Participatory Budgeting (PB) is conceptually powerful because it ties the normative values of non-elite participation and deliberation to specific policymaking processes. It is a democratic policymaking process that enables citizens to allocate public monies. PB has spread globally, coming to the United States in 2009. Our analysis shows that the types of institutional designs used in the United States are quite different from the original Brazilian programs. What explains the variation in PB institutional design between Brazil and the United States? Most PB cases in the US are district-level whereas in Brazil, PB cases are mainly municipal. We account for …

Developing Political Strategies Across A New Democratic And State Architecture, Brian Wampler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under new democratic regimes, civil society organizations (CSOs) alter their political strategies to better engage public officials and citizens as well as to influence broader political debates. In Brazil, between 1990 and 2010, CSOs gained access to a broad participatory architecture as well as a reconfigured state, inducing CSOs to employ a wider range of strategies. This article uses a political network approach to illuminate variation in CSOs’ political strategies across four policy arenas and show how the role of the state, the broader configuration of civil society, the interests of elected officials, and the rules of participatory institutions interact …

India Has A Sexual Assault Problem That Only Women Can Fix, Nisha Bellinger

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

India is the most dangerous country for sexual violence against women, according to the Thomson Reuters Foundation 2018 survey.

How Dehumanization Influences Attitudes Towards Immigrants, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Immigrants, as a group, are frequently described in ways, such as vermin or disease, that portray them as less than human. This type of dehumanizing language leads to negative emotional responses and negative attitudes towards the dehumanized group. This paper examines how the dehumanization of immigrants influences immigration policy attitudes I use original experimental data to show that dehumanization leads to more negative immigration attitudes. I further find that these negative attitudes are mediated by the role of emotion. Dehumanization increases anger and disgust towards immigrants, which causes anti-immigrant sentiment.

Rethinking Reporting On Polls In Time For Midterm Elections, Stephen Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Associated Press, a nonprofit news wire published by 1,300 papers and broadcasters, has updated its stylebook to clarify that “poll results that seek to preview the outcome of an election must never be the lead, headline or single subject of any story.”