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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Unemployment And Public Budget Impacts Of The Auto Bailout, Robert Baumann, Andrea Thompson
Unemployment And Public Budget Impacts Of The Auto Bailout, Robert Baumann, Andrea Thompson
Economics Department Working Papers
We estimate the impact of the 2009 financial rescue of two large American automobile companies (General Motors and Chrysler) on unemployment in Michigan. We conservatively estimate that the auto bailout saved about 7,700 workers from unemployment each month over a period of four-and-a-half years. This translates to a public savings of between $1.3 and $1.6 billion via lower transfer payments and higher tax revenues.
The Role Of Expectations: An Application To Internal Migration, Robert Baumann, Justin Svec, Francis Sanzari
The Role Of Expectations: An Application To Internal Migration, Robert Baumann, Justin Svec, Francis Sanzari
Economics Department Working Papers
This paper examines the impact of unemployment on migration. In a theoretical model, we show that unemployment, per se, does not affect migration. Rather, migration only occurs when unemployment shocks force residents to update their expectations of the area's unemployment rate. Once these expectations change, migration reallocates labor to bring the economy back to equilibrium. To test this theory, we devise an empirical strategy using state level data in the U.S. from 2000 to 2010, we find strong empirical evidence that unemployment shocks outside of expectations have a far greater impact on migration than unemployment shocks that are within expectations.
Efficient Labor Force Participation With Search And Bargaining, Bryan Engelhardt, David L. Fuller
Efficient Labor Force Participation With Search And Bargaining, Bryan Engelhardt, David L. Fuller
Economics Department Working Papers
A fixed wage is inefficient in a standard search model when workers endogenously separate from employment. We derive an efficient employment contract that involves agents paying a hiring fee (or bond) upon the formation of a match. We estimate the fixed wage and efficient contract assuming the hiring fee is unobservable, and find evidence to reject the efficient contract in favor of the fixed wage rule. A counterfactual experiment reveals the current level of labor force participation to be 9% below the efficient level, and a structural shift to the efficient contract improves welfare by nearly 4%.
The Great Macroeconomic Experiment: Assessing The Effects Of Fiscal Stimulus Spending On Employment Growth, Robert Baumann, Bryan Engelhardt, Victor Matheson
The Great Macroeconomic Experiment: Assessing The Effects Of Fiscal Stimulus Spending On Employment Growth, Robert Baumann, Bryan Engelhardt, Victor Matheson
Economics Department Working Papers
As the economics profession is split over the expected impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, we analyze the effects as if it were an experiment. Specifically, we analyze the effects of spending on employment using a difference-in-difference approach by state. To date, we find spending has had no significant effect on employment.
The Effect Of Employment Frictions On Crime: Theory And Estimation, Bryan Engelhardt
The Effect Of Employment Frictions On Crime: Theory And Estimation, Bryan Engelhardt
Economics Department Working Papers
I investigate how long it takes for released inmates to find a job, and when they find a job, how their incarceration rate changes. An on-the-job search model with crime is used to model criminal behavior, derive the estimation method and analyze several policies including a job placement program. The results show the unemployed are incarcerated twice as fast as the employed and take on average four months to find a job. Combining these results, it is demonstrated that reducing the average unemployment spell of criminals by two months reduces crime and recidivism by more than five percent.