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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Economic Consequences Of A War With Iraq, William D. Nordhaus
The Economic Consequences Of A War With Iraq, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict in Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction …
Macroeconomic Strategy In Wartime, James Tobin
Macroeconomic Strategy In Wartime, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In 2001-02 the United States has been hit by two quite different shocks, terrorism and recession. As usual in time of war, national defense is the highest priority for use of the country’s resources. Although the opportunities for international warfare are limited, the challenges to the homeland are virtually unlimited. The president’s fiscal year 2003 budget includes $48 billion additional for the military and $38 billion additional for homeland defense. Given the gravity of the threat, it is hard to understand why new expenditures are not undertaken as soon as and as large as possible. This would also be timely …