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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Why The U.S. Government Failed To Anticipate The Rwandan Genocide Of 1994: Lessons For Early Warning And Prevention, Matthew Levinger
Why The U.S. Government Failed To Anticipate The Rwandan Genocide Of 1994: Lessons For Early Warning And Prevention, Matthew Levinger
Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal
During the months leading up to the Rwandan genocide of 1994, cognitive biases obstructed the capacity of U.S. government analysts and policymakers to anticipate mass violence against the country’s Tutsi minority. Drawing on recently declassified U.S. government documents and on interviews with key current and former officials, this essay shows that most U.S. government reporting on Rwanda before April 1994 utilized a faulty cognitive frame that failed to differentiate between threats of civil war and genocide. Because U.S. officials framed the crisis in Rwanda as a potential civil war, they underestimated the virulence of the threat to Tutsi civilians and …
Modeling Human Behavior To Anticipate Insider Attacks, Frank L. Greitzer , Ph.D., Ryan E. Hohimer
Modeling Human Behavior To Anticipate Insider Attacks, Frank L. Greitzer , Ph.D., Ryan E. Hohimer
Journal of Strategic Security
The insider threat ranks among the most pressing cyber-security challenges
that threaten government and industry information infrastructures.
To date, no systematic methods have been developed that provide a
complete and effective approach to prevent data leakage, espionage, and
sabotage. Current practice is forensic in nature, relegating to the analyst
the bulk of the responsibility to monitor, analyze, and correlate an overwhelming
amount of data. We describe a predictive modeling framework
that integrates a diverse set of data sources from the cyber domain, as well
as inferred psychological/motivational factors that may underlie malicious
insider exploits. This comprehensive threat assessment approach
provides …
Alternative Threat Methodology, Charles B. King Iii
Alternative Threat Methodology, Charles B. King Iii
Journal of Strategic Security
Of the many challenges facing risk analysis practitioners, perhaps the most difficult to overcome is in the field of terrorist threat analysis. When estimating the threat associated with naturally occurring events, historical data provides a great deal of insight into the frequency of those events. Threat associated with accidents applies many operations research tools to gauge future failure-rates (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis being perhaps the most widely known). However, estimating the probability of an individual's or group's attacking a specific (or even a generic) target is an element of risk analysis in which art and intuition are applied far …
Murder And Martial Justice: Spying And Retribution In Wwii America. By Meredith Lentz Adams (Kent, Ohio: The Kent State University Press, 2011), Millard E. Moon Ed.D.
Murder And Martial Justice: Spying And Retribution In Wwii America. By Meredith Lentz Adams (Kent, Ohio: The Kent State University Press, 2011), Millard E. Moon Ed.D.
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller
Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller
Journal of Strategic Security
This article presents a dynamic decision support methodology forcounter-terrorism decision support. The initial sections introduce basic objectives and challenges of terrorism risk analysis and risk management. The remainder of the paper describes TRANSEC, a decision support framework for defining, validating, and monitoring strategies focused on managing terrorism risks to international transportation networks. The methodology and software tools underlying TRANSEC are applicable to other homeland security problems, such as critical infrastructure and border protection.
Teaching Bayesian Statistics To Intelligence Analysts: Lessons Learned, Kristan J. Wheaton, Jennifer Lee, Hemangini Deshmukh
Teaching Bayesian Statistics To Intelligence Analysts: Lessons Learned, Kristan J. Wheaton, Jennifer Lee, Hemangini Deshmukh
Journal of Strategic Security
The Community must develop and integrate into regular use new toolsthat can assist analysts in filtering and correlating the vast quantities of information that threaten to overwhelm the analytic process…—Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United StatesRegarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (The WMD Report)1Unlike the other social sciences and, particularly, the physical sciences, where scientists get to choose the questions they wish to answer and experiments are carefully designed to confirm or negate hypotheses, intelligence analysis requires analysts to deal with thedemands of decision makers and estimate the intentions of foreign actors, criminals or business competitors in an environment …
Research Note: Using The Iterate And Dots Databases, Peter A. Flemming, Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler
Research Note: Using The Iterate And Dots Databases, Peter A. Flemming, Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler
Journal of Strategic Security
For more than three decades, Vinyard Software's two ITERATE (International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events) datasets have set the standard in events research for terrorism researchers. It has recently been supplemented by the DOTS (Data on Terrorist Subjects) biographies project, which covers all terrorists, supporters, and other individuals mentioned in the ITERATE project.
Strategic Security As A New Academic Discipline, Sheldon Greaves, Ph.D
Strategic Security As A New Academic Discipline, Sheldon Greaves, Ph.D
Journal of Strategic Security
The creation of Henley-Putnam University was an effort to create an academic institution for the purpose of offering degree programs in intelligence management, counterterrorism, and personal protection; subjects that arguably did not exist as academic disciplines when the school was conceived. The experience of two of the co-founders of the school, Nirmalya Bhowmick and Dr. Michael Corcoran, indicated that the training of officers tasked with vital security and intelligence work was carried out by partnering young officers with a training officer to help the new officer learn on the job. The effectiveness of this training depended to a great extent …
Dividing Up Intelligence Education, Robert Clark, Ph.D
Dividing Up Intelligence Education, Robert Clark, Ph.D
Journal of Strategic Security
At this year's annual conference of the International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) in Monterey, CA, the keynote speaker posed the question, "How much do you need intelligence education outside the beltway?" Which led to a second question discussed during the conference: "What should such education look like?" In short, what should we be teaching in universities? What should we leave to the intelligence community as training? And what could be done in either or both settings? The first question of any educational effort is:What are we preparing students for?
Icworld: An Mmog-Based Approach To Analysis, Kimberly Gill, David Rolston, Wyatt Wong, Robert Pietrusko
Icworld: An Mmog-Based Approach To Analysis, Kimberly Gill, David Rolston, Wyatt Wong, Robert Pietrusko
Journal of Strategic Security
Intelligence analysts routinely work with "wicked" problems—critical,time-sensitive problems where analytical errors can lead to catastrophic consequences for the nation's security. In the analyst's world, important decisions are often made quickly, and are made based on consuming, understanding, and piecing together enormous volumes of data. The data is not only voluminous, but often fragmented, subjective, inaccurate and fluid.Why does multi-player on-line gaming (MMOG) technology matter to the IC? Fundamentally, there are two reasons. The first is technological: stripping away the gamelike content, MMOGs are dynamic systems that represent a physical world, where users are presented with (virtual) life-and-death challenges that can …