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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Keynote Address At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria, Godwin I. Emefiele Dec 2014

Keynote Address At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria, Godwin I. Emefiele

Economic and Financial Review

This is keynote address delivered by the Governor of Central Bank, Godwin I. Emefiele, on the executive seminar on exchange rate policy and economic development- Is there a need for paradigm shift?


Welcome Address At The Executive Seminar On "Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management", C. Mojekwu Dec 2014

Welcome Address At The Executive Seminar On "Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management", C. Mojekwu

Economic and Financial Review

This is a welcome address by the Director of Human Resources Department on the 2015 CBN executive seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resources Departments.


Special Remarks At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria - Is There A Need For Paradigm Shift?, S.O. Alade Dec 2014

Special Remarks At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria - Is There A Need For Paradigm Shift?, S.O. Alade

Economic and Financial Review

This is a special remark delivered by the Deputy Governor (Economic Policy) during the 23rd edition of the Annual Executive Seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resources Departments with the theme: "Exchange rate policy and economic management in Nigeria- Is there need for a paradigm shift?


Empirical Exposition Of Monetary Policy Under Fixed And Managed Float Exchange Rate Regime: Any Lesson For Nigeria, F.O. Egwaikhide, M. Oyinlola, O. Adeniyi, D. B. Olanipekun Dec 2014

Empirical Exposition Of Monetary Policy Under Fixed And Managed Float Exchange Rate Regime: Any Lesson For Nigeria, F.O. Egwaikhide, M. Oyinlola, O. Adeniyi, D. B. Olanipekun

Economic and Financial Review

The paper empirically investigated the relationship between monetary aggregates and the exchange rate under alternative exchange rate regimes in Nigeria. Using data spanning 1961 to 2013 to estimate vector auto-regressive (VAR) models, a number of findings ensued.


An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje Dec 2014

An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje

Economic and Financial Review

The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,


Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo Dec 2014

Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined various type and definitions of dollarization, the possibility of dollarization in Nigeria and its effect on economic management. The author emphasized on unofficial dollarization and its benefits and costs.


Exchange Rates, Capital Flows And Monetary Policy: Lessons From Emerging Market Economies, Biodun Adedipe Dec 2014

Exchange Rates, Capital Flows And Monetary Policy: Lessons From Emerging Market Economies, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

This paper proceeds in four sections as follows: section 1 is the introduction, section 2 gives a cursory summary of the literature on the 'trilemma-dilemma' that tend more towards the relevance of capital controls as an independent instrument in monetary policy irrespective of the exchange rate regime, while section 3 examines the evidence and effectiveness of the management of the process and relationships in emerging market economies (EME). Section 4 examines a country experience, while section 5 draws inferences for Nigeria and section 6 concludes with recommendations.


Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi Dec 2014

Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …


Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management: A Theoretical Nexus, Ayodele Jimoh Nov 2014

Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management: A Theoretical Nexus, Ayodele Jimoh

Economic and Financial Review

This article focused on exchange rate policy and economic management: a theoretical nexus


Responsiveness Of Nigeria's Short-Term Interest Rates To Changes In The Policy Rate, M. K. Tule Sep 2014

Responsiveness Of Nigeria's Short-Term Interest Rates To Changes In The Policy Rate, M. K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper appraises the efficacy of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) as an anchor for other short-term interest rates in the economy. Adopting the vector autoregression approach, the responses of Nigeria's short-term interest rates to changes in the interbank rate (proxy for MPR) was modelled. The paper found that the pass-through from MPR to money market interest rates in the long-run is higher for the prime and lending rates than for changes in the Treasury bill rate and 3-month deposit rate. Overall, there seemed to be an asymmetric impact with an increase or fall in the interbank rate.


Analysis Of Monetary Policy Decision Making Among Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Committee (Mpc) Members At The Central Bank Of Nigeria, C. C. Ezema, O. J. Odonye, T. S. Shitile, O. O. Afiemo Sep 2014

Analysis Of Monetary Policy Decision Making Among Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Committee (Mpc) Members At The Central Bank Of Nigeria, C. C. Ezema, O. J. Odonye, T. S. Shitile, O. O. Afiemo

Economic and Financial Review

This paper provided an empirical analysis of policy-makers' voting patterns on interest rates in Nigeria. Employing a (pooled) Taylor rule and using real-time data obtained from published personal statements of monetary policy committee members at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the paper tests for preference heterogeneity among MPC members. The aggregate reaction function as well as individual reaction functions for MPC members were used to tests whether there is a difference between the voting patterns of internal members and that of external members of the committee. Our results suggest evidence of heterogeneity among MPC members and that the voting …


Nigeria's Monetary Conditions Index, M. K. Tule, A. M. Isah, P. N. Okafor, I. Pedro, S. A. Ukeje, K. Oji, S. Oladunni Sep 2014

Nigeria's Monetary Conditions Index, M. K. Tule, A. M. Isah, P. N. Okafor, I. Pedro, S. A. Ukeje, K. Oji, S. Oladunni

Economic and Financial Review

The paper aims to construct a monetary conditions index (MCI) for Nigeria to aid the evaluation of the stance of monetary policy. Quarterly data for 91-day treasury bill rate (TBR), real exchange rate (RER), inflation rate (INF), real private sector credit (RCP), and real gross domestic product (RGDP), covering the period 2000Q1 to 2014Q1, were utilised. The period coincided with key reforms in the money and foreign exchange markets, culminating in the adoption of a new monetary policy framework in 2006. Following some econometric diagnostic tests, an aggregate demand function was estimated using the Johansen co-integration technique. The resultant long-run …


Quality Of Governance And Stock Market Performance: The Nigerian Experience, K. B. Ajide Sep 2014

Quality Of Governance And Stock Market Performance: The Nigerian Experience, K. B. Ajide

Economic and Financial Review

The paper examines the impact of governance on stock market performance using quarterly data series spanning 1996Q1 to 2010Q4. An ARDL bound testing methodology was employed to explore such causal relationship. Long-run stable relationships were established through the error correction terms of each of the measures used to the tune of -0.4821,-0.4034 and -0.4080 for all share price index, market capitalisation and the value of total stock traded, respectively. Findings indicate that macroeconomic and financial stability should be constantly maintained and promoted as it constitutes a drag on the stock performance; any acts of corruption should be eschewed as it …


An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach To The Oil Consumption And Growth Nexus: Nigerian Evidence, N. Inuwa, H. M. Usman Jun 2014

An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach To The Oil Consumption And Growth Nexus: Nigerian Evidence, N. Inuwa, H. M. Usman

Economic and Financial Review

This study attempts to examine the relationship between oil consumption, carbon emission and economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1980-2011. The study applied Dickey-Fuller Generalised Least Square (DF-GLS) unit root test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to co-integration. The bond test results reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship among oil consumption, carbon emission and economic growth. The result also showed a positive and statistically significant impact of oil consumption on economic growth. The coefficient of error correction term in the ARDL model was statistically significant, indicating that the adjustment process by which long-run equilibrium is restored after …


Effect Of Monetary Policy On Agricultural Sector In Nigeria, Elias A. Udeaja, Udoh A. Elijah Jun 2014

Effect Of Monetary Policy On Agricultural Sector In Nigeria, Elias A. Udeaja, Udoh A. Elijah

Economic and Financial Review

The study examinee the effect of monetary policy on agricultural sector in Nigeria, utilizing time series data for the periods spanning from 1970 to 2010. The study captures both monetary and non-monetary policy variables such as lending rate, commercial banks credit to agriculture, exchange rate, government expenditure in agriculture and inflation rate in examining the effect of monetary policy on agricultural output. The methodology adopted is the Auto- Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing Approach. The results obtained shows that exchange rate and government expenditure had positive and significant effect on agricultural output and, hence agricultural sector in Nigeria. It …


A Test Of The Fisher Effect In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, U. M. Okpanachi, E. T. Adamgbe, S. E. Smith Jun 2014

A Test Of The Fisher Effect In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, U. M. Okpanachi, E. T. Adamgbe, S. E. Smith

Economic and Financial Review

This paper uses the state space model to investigate the dynamic relationship between real interest rate and inflation in Nigeria. The paper reveals varying degrees of effect across interest rate and time horizons.


Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude Mar 2014

Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the relationship between oil price and real exchange rate movement in Nigeria. Crude oil exports account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings hence, the economy may be vulnerable to instability in international oil prices, which the country as a small open economy, cannot influence. Using monthly data covering the period 2000 to 2013, this study employs GARCH process to test the relationship between oil price and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. The results of GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) suggest the persistence of volatility between real oil prices and the real exchange rate. …


The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, A. E. Ikoku Mar 2014

The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, A. E. Ikoku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the sensitivity of sectoral index returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange to macroeconomic risk factors such as the spread between deposit and lending rates of banks, the slope of the yield curve, broad money supply, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and the international price of oil. We found that the Banking, Food and Beverage, and Insurance sectors were sensitive to some macroeconomic risk factors but not to others. The Oil and Gas sector was sensitive to the slope of the yield curve only. This study estimated the elasticities of macroeconomic factors in the Nigerian Stock Exchange using …


Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude Mar 2014

Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the relationship between oil price and real exchange rate movement in Nigeria. Crude oil exports account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings hence, the economy may be vulnerable to instability in international oil prices, which the country as a small open economy, cannot influence. Using monthly data covering the period 2000 to 2013, this study employs GARCH process to test the relationship between oil price and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. The results of GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) suggest the persistence of volatility between real oil prices and the real exchange rate. …


The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, Alvan E. Ikoku Mar 2014

The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, Alvan E. Ikoku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the sensitivity of sectoral index returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange to macroeconomic risk factors such as the spread between deposit and lending rates of banks, the slope of the yield curve, broad money supply, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and the international price of oil. The study found that the banking, food and beverage, and insurance sectors were sensitive to some macroeconomic risk factors but not to others. The oil and gas sector was sensitive to the slope of the yield curve only. This study estimated the elasticities of macroeconomic factors in the Nigerian Stock Exchange …


An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi Mar 2014

An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This study examines the dynamics of inflation in Nigeria, including the structural evolution as well as the direction of its movement with a view to designing appropriate policy measures to rein in the inflationary pressures. The study utilized quarterly data from 1970(1) to 2013 (4) except for Bureau de Change (BDC) premium where the duration was 1991(1) to 2013 (4) based on Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that structural factors like budget deficit, rainfall, variation in export, exchange rate premium have profound influence on movement in CPI in Nigeria during the period.


Foreign Direct Investment Trade Nexus In Nigeria: Do Structural Breaks Matter?, S. Mohammed, B. L. Ekundayo Mar 2014

Foreign Direct Investment Trade Nexus In Nigeria: Do Structural Breaks Matter?, S. Mohammed, B. L. Ekundayo

Economic and Financial Review

ln this paper, three innovations are introduced to the literature on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDl) -trade nexus; identification and consideration of structural breaks in the underlying time series data; use of disaggregated data set that captures the oil and non-oil dichotomy of the Nigerian economy; and introduction of identified break in the short-run model. We found the existence of a co-integrating relationship between the variables amidst observed breaks in 1980 and 1992. Thus, considering structural breaks in estimations can not be downplayed as ignoring this may yield biased and inconsistent estimates. Findings revealed a one-way causal linkage between non-oil …