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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Border Region Modeling Project
A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to …
Southern Border International Shopping And Employment: 1990-2016, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke
Southern Border International Shopping And Employment: 1990-2016, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
Price differentials, among other factors, persuade many residents of northern Mexico to shop in the southwestern United States border region. Employment patterns in the latter region are studied using a set of control variables and two indicators that are likely to influence cross-border shopping patterns. The first is a real exchange rate index, which captures changes in relative prices in the United States and Mexico. The second is real per capita gross state product in Mexican states adjacent to the international boundary. Both of these variables are found to impact retail and restaurant employment in the United States border zone, …
Southern Border Recession Predictability In The United States: 1990-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Elías D. Saenz-Rojo, Adam G. Walke
Southern Border Recession Predictability In The United States: 1990-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Elías D. Saenz-Rojo, Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
Prior research establishes that the spread between long- and short-term bond yields often provides valuable information for predicting business cycle downturns. This study examines the predictive capacity of the yield spread for United States metropolitan economies situated along the border with Mexico. Because of the location of these urban economies and various economic ties linking them with twin cities across the border, the Mexico yield spread, and the real dollar/peso exchange rate are also employed as potential recession predictors. Results suggest that a flattening of the yield curve for either country tends to increase the probability of recessions in border …
Borderplex Panel Evidence On Restaurant Price And Exchange Rate Dynamics, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., André Varella Mollick
Borderplex Panel Evidence On Restaurant Price And Exchange Rate Dynamics, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., André Varella Mollick
Border Region Modeling Project
This paper examines prices for 32 identical menu items sold by restaurant franchises operating on both sides of the border between El Paso in the U.S. and Ciudad Juárez in Mexico from July 1997 to June 2008. The relationship between real exchange rate (RER) volatility and the degree of price convergence is examined within a panel data context. The city-pair and goods selected provide a unique experiment in which distance, tradability, and industry considerations are set aside and the extent of RER volatility is the only factor to influence price convergence. We find non-monotonic relationships between mean reversion and RER …