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Forecasting The Nursing Home Population, Darius Lakdawalla, Jay Bhattacharya, Dana Goldman, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey Joyce, Constantijn Panis
Forecasting The Nursing Home Population, Darius Lakdawalla, Jay Bhattacharya, Dana Goldman, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey Joyce, Constantijn Panis
Darius N. Lakdawalla
Objective. To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage.
Methods. Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level data sets designed to be representative of the US population older than the age of 65.
Results. Today's young cohorts will have higher rates and levels of institutionalization than their older counterparts. …